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College football F/+ picks: Week 14

November 27, 2013, 1:02 pm
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Football Outsiders picks and projections for Week 14 of the 2013 college football season.

Bring on Rivalry Week and its silly trophies!

  • Week 1
    New: 37-38 (49%)
    Old: 30-15 (67%)
  • Week 2
    New: 41-32-2 (56%)
    Old: 16-25 (39%)
  • Week 3
    New: 28-30-2 (48%)
    Old: 20-23-2 (47%)
  • Week 4
    New: 25-33-1 (43%)
    Old: 23-20-1 (53%)
  • Week 5
    New: 22-24-2 (48%)
    Old: 27-19-2 (58%)
  • Week 6
    New: 29-26 (53%)
    Old: 27-28 (49%)
  • Week 7
    New: 27-23-1 (54%)
    Old: 25-24-1 (51%)
  • Week 8
    New: 21-25-1 (46%)
    Old: 24-22-1 (52%)
  • Week 9
    New: 26-24-4 (52%)
    Old: 25-24-4 (51%)
  • Week 10
    New: 22-27-1 (45%)
    Old: 24-24-1 (50%)
  • Week 11
    New: 32-20-1 (61%)
    Old: 31-20-1 (61%)
  • Week 12
    New: 24-27 (47%)
    Old: 23-27 (46%)
  • Week 13
    New: 31-26-2 (54%)
    Old: 32-22-1 (59%)
  • TOTAL
    New: 363-355-16 (50%)
    Old: 327-293-13 (53%)

Solid 55% for Old Method so far in November ... I'll take that.

NEW METHOD

DayTime (ET)TVGameSpreadPredictionFavorite's
chance of
winning outright		Pick
Tue7:00 PMESPN2Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-35Northern Illinois by 30.2 (38.5 - 15.7)99.0%Western Michigan
Thu7:30 PMESPNOle Miss at Mississippi State4.5Ole Miss by 4.2 (27.6 - 20.8)64.1%Mississippi State
Thu7:30 PMFS1Texas Tech at Texas-4.5Texas by 5.4 (36.9 - 36.4)66.8%Texas
Fri12:00 PMCBSSNEast Carolina at Marshall-3East Carolina by 6.2 (42.0 - 33.6)68.5%East Carolina
Fri12:00 PMABCIowa at Nebraska-3Iowa by 1.7 (28.0 - 22.6)58.5%Iowa
Fri12:00 PMESPN2SMU at Houston-9.5Houston by 15.3 (35.8 - 28.0)85.4%Houston
Fri12:00 PMESPN3Toledo at Akron7.5Toledo by 14.2 (35.5 - 21.2)83.6%Toledo
Fri1:00 PMESPN3Miami-OH at Ball State-34.5Ball State by 34.1 (42.5 - 11.5)99.0%Miami-OH
Fri1:30 PMESPNUBowling Green at Buffalo1.5Buffalo by 0.2 (31.7 - 30.3)54.9%Buffalo
Fri2:00 PMESPN3Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan-19Central Michigan by 11.7 (34.6 - 28.5)79.3%Eastern Michigan
Fri2:00 PMESPN3Massachusetts at Ohio-16.5Ohio by 11.5 (29.5 - 25.1)78.9%Massachusetts
Fri2:00 PMESPN3Texas State at Troy-7Troy by 2.0 (29.7 - 28.7)59.0%Texas State
Fri2:30 PMCBSArkansas at LSU-24.5LSU by 28.8 (47.4 - 23.4)99.0%LSU
Fri3:00 PMFS1Florida International at Florida Atlantic-28Florida Atlantic by 31.8 (33.0 - 6.9)99.0%Florida Atlantic
Fri3:30 PMCBSSNFresno State at San Jose State7.5Fresno State by 10.4 (44.2 - 28.8)76.9%Fresno State
Fri3:30 PMABCMiami-FL at Pittsburgh3Miami-FL by 4.8 (34.8 - 28.5)65.4%Miami-FL
Fri3:30 PMFoxWashington State at Washington-16.5Washington by 18.2 (36.7 - 22.0)89.7%Washington
Fri7:00 PMFS1Oregon State at Oregon-21.5Oregon by 26.0 (45.2 - 26.2)98.7%Oregon
Fri8:00 PMESPNSouth Florida at Central Florida-27Central Florida by 29.1 (39.1 - 11.8)99.0%Central Florida
Sat12:00 PMESPN2Duke at North Carolina-6North Carolina by 2.4 (34.6 - 34.4)60.1%Duke
Sat12:00 PMESPNFlorida State at Florida27Florida State by 23.6 (32.6 - 3.9)96.3%Florida
Sat12:00 PMFS1Kansas State at Kansas16Kansas State by 24.6 (38.3 - 12.6)97.4%Kansas State
Sat12:00 PMBTNMinnesota at Michigan State-14.5Michigan State by 19.0 (27.3 - 9.9)90.7%Michigan State
Sat12:00 PMABCOhio State at Michigan15Ohio State by 13.5 (34.6 - 19.9)82.4%Michigan
Sat12:00 PMESPNURutgers at Connecticut3Connecticut by 0.9 (19.4 - 17.7)56.5%Connecticut
Sat12:00 PMESPN NewsTemple at Memphis-8.5Memphis by 15.8 (27.5 - 18.0)86.2%Memphis
Sat12:21 PMSEC NetworkWake Forest at Vanderbilt-14.5Vanderbilt by 11.6 (23.8 - 16.6)79.1%Wake Forest
Sat12:30 PMESPN3Maryland at NC State3Maryland by 2.3 (26.8 - 22.1)59.9%NC State
Sat1:00 PMSouthern Miss at UAB-14.5UAB by 7.7 (31.6 - 30.8)71.6%Southern Miss
Sat2:00 PMESPN3Air Force at Colorado State-16Colorado State by 15.8 (41.9 - 30.0)86.2%Air Force
Sat2:00 PMPac-12Colorado at Utah-17Utah by 25.8 (38.8 - 18.0)98.5%Utah
Sat2:00 PMESPN3South Alabama at Georgia State8South Alabama by 14.7 (41.0 - 24.9)84.4%South Alabama
Sat2:00 PMWyoming at Utah State-21Utah State by 24.1 (33.5 - 16.0)96.8%Utah State
Sat2:30 PMNorth Texas at Tulsa5North Texas by 6.3 (23.4 - 17.2)68.8%North Texas
Sat3:00 PMCBSSNBYU at Nevada14BYU by 21.8 (48.5 - 21.1)94.3%BYU
Sat3:00 PMTulane at Rice-11Rice by 4.9 (22.8 - 22.4)65.7%Tulane
Sat3:30 PMCBSAlabama at Auburn11Alabama by 10.8 (28.2 - 16.5)77.8%Auburn
Sat3:30 PMESPN2Baylor at TCU11.5Baylor by 22.1 (38.1 - 11.9)94.6%Baylor
Sat3:30 PMESPN3Boston College at Syracuse2Boston College by 5.8 (32.0 - 24.4)67.7%Boston College
Sat3:30 PMABCGeorgia at Georgia Tech3Georgia by 1.9 (42.2 - 35.2)58.9%Georgia Tech
Sat3:30 PMIdaho at New Mexico State-3New Mexico State by 2.1 (25.9 - 25.4)59.4%Idaho
Sat3:30 PMLouisiana Tech at UTSA-16.5UTSA by 21.3 (41.0 - 21.0)93.7%UTSA
Sat3:30 PMBTNNorthwestern at Illinois3.5Northwestern by 2.7 (35.5 - 28.8)60.9%Illinois
Sat3:30 PMESPNPenn State at Wisconsin-24Wisconsin by 31.8 (35.4 - 8.0)99.0%Wisconsin
Sat3:30 PMBTNPurdue at Indiana-21Indiana by 23.4 (46.3 - 26.5)96.1%Indiana
Sat3:30 PMESPNUVirginia Tech at Virginia13Virginia Tech by 20.2 (24.7 - -0.6)92.4%Virginia Tech
Sat3:45 PMUTEP at Middle Tennessee-23Middle Tennessee by 21.1 (42.2 - 23.2)93.5%UTEP
Sat4:00 PMESPN3Arkansas State at Western Kentucky-6.5Western Kentucky by 9.3 (30.0 - 21.0)74.8%Western Kentucky
Sat4:00 PMFS1Iowa State at West Virginia-8West Virginia by 4.6 (25.8 - 23.9)65.1%Iowa State
Sat7:00 PMESPN2Clemson at South Carolina-5South Carolina by 2.4 (32.2 - 30.5)60.2%Clemson
Sat7:00 PMFoxNotre Dame at Stanford-14.5Stanford by 16.4 (31.3 - 21.1)87.1%Stanford
Sat7:00 PMESPNUTennessee at Kentucky4Tennessee by 2.7 (32.0 - 25.7)60.8%Kentucky
Sat7:00 PMESPN3UL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette-15UL-Lafayette by 17.4 (34.8 - 24.4)88.6%UL-Lafayette
Sat7:45 PMESPNTexas A&M at Missouri-4.5Missouri by 8.6 (41.7 - 33.2)73.5%Missouri
Sat8:00 PMABCUCLA at USC-3.5USC by 9.2 (24.7 - 17.8)74.7%USC
Sat9:30 PMPac-12Arizona at Arizona State-13Arizona State by 16.8 (39.4 - 26.9)87.6%Arizona State
Sat10:15 PMESPN2New Mexico at Boise State-37Boise State by 26.2 (51.9 - 29.3)98.9%New Mexico
Sat10:30 PMESPNUSan Diego State at UNLV3.5San Diego State by 1.5 (23.7 - 18.5)57.9%UNLV
Sat11:00 PMArmy at Hawaii-7Hawaii by 8.7 (32.6 - 29.8)73.6%Hawaii

OLD METHOD

DayTime (ET)GameSpreadOLD PredictionOLD PickDifferent?
Tue7:00 PMWestern Michigan at Northern Illinois-35Northern Illinois by 28.3Western Michigan
Thu7:30 PMOle Miss at Mississippi State4.5Ole Miss by 4.1Mississippi State
Thu7:30 PMTexas Tech at Texas-4.5Texas by 5.3Texas
Fri12:00 PMEast Carolina at Marshall-3East Carolina by 5.3East Carolina
Fri12:00 PMIowa at Nebraska-3Iowa by 1.6Iowa
Fri12:00 PMSMU at Houston-9.5Houston by 14.4Houston
Fri12:00 PMToledo at Akron7.5Toledo by 13.1Toledo
Fri1:00 PMMiami-OH at Ball State-34.5Ball State by 32.4Miami-OH
Fri1:30 PMBowling Green at Buffalo1.5Buffalo by 0.3Buffalo
Fri2:00 PMEastern Michigan at Central Michigan-19Central Michigan by 12.9Eastern Michigan
Fri2:00 PMMassachusetts at Ohio-16.5Ohio by 10.9Massachusetts
Fri2:00 PMTexas State at Troy-7Troy by 2.0Texas State
Fri2:30 PMArkansas at LSU-24.5LSU by 29.5LSU
Fri3:00 PMFlorida International at Florida Atlantic-28Florida Atlantic by 31.9Florida Atlantic
Fri3:30 PMFresno State at San Jose State7.5Fresno State by 9.8Fresno State
Fri3:30 PMMiami-FL at Pittsburgh3Miami-FL by 4.8Miami-FL
Fri3:30 PMWashington State at Washington-16.5Washington by 18.5Washington
Fri7:00 PMOregon State at Oregon-21.5Oregon by 23.5Oregon
Fri8:00 PMSouth Florida at Central Florida-27Central Florida by 29.8Central Florida
Sat12:00 PMDuke at North Carolina-6North Carolina by 2.3Duke
Sat12:00 PMFlorida State at Florida27Florida State by 24.8Florida
Sat12:00 PMKansas State at Kansas16Kansas State by 24.4Kansas State
Sat12:00 PMMinnesota at Michigan State-14.5Michigan State by 19.1Michigan State
Sat12:00 PMOhio State at Michigan15Ohio State by 13.8Michigan
Sat12:00 PMRutgers at Connecticut3Connecticut by 1.1Connecticut
Sat12:00 PMTemple at Memphis-8.5Memphis by 17.0Memphis
Sat12:21 PMWake Forest at Vanderbilt-14.5Vanderbilt by 11.9Wake Forest
Sat12:30 PMMaryland at NC State3Maryland by 2.2NC State
Sat1:00 PMSouthern Miss at UAB-14.5UAB by 7.7Southern Miss
Sat2:00 PMAir Force at Colorado State-16Colorado State by 15.8Air Force
Sat2:00 PMColorado at Utah-17Utah by 26.7Utah
Sat2:00 PMSouth Alabama at Georgia State8South Alabama by 14.3South Alabama
Sat2:00 PMWyoming at Utah State-21Utah State by 24.2Utah State
Sat2:30 PMNorth Texas at Tulsa5North Texas by 5.6North Texas
Sat3:00 PMBYU at Nevada14BYU by 18.8BYU
Sat3:00 PMTulane at Rice-11Rice by 4.8Tulane
Sat3:30 PMAlabama at Auburn11Alabama by 12.1AlabamaXXX
Sat3:30 PMBaylor at TCU11.5Baylor by 20.0Baylor
Sat3:30 PMBoston College at Syracuse2Boston College by 5.5Boston College
Sat3:30 PMGeorgia at Georgia Tech3Georgia by 1.8Georgia Tech
Sat3:30 PMIdaho at New Mexico State-3New Mexico State by 2.3Idaho
Sat3:30 PMLouisiana Tech at UTSA-16.5UTSA by 19.2UTSA
Sat3:30 PMNorthwestern at Illinois3.5Northwestern by 2.6Illinois
Sat3:30 PMPenn State at Wisconsin-24Wisconsin by 30.6Wisconsin
Sat3:30 PMPurdue at Indiana-21Indiana by 21.9Indiana
Sat3:30 PMVirginia Tech at Virginia13Virginia Tech by 19.3Virginia Tech
Sat3:45 PMUTEP at Middle Tennessee-23Middle Tennessee by 21.5UTEP
Sat4:00 PMArkansas State at Western Kentucky-6.5Western Kentucky by 9.4Western Kentucky
Sat4:00 PMIowa State at West Virginia-8West Virginia by 4.4Iowa State
Sat7:00 PMClemson at South Carolina-5South Carolina by 2.4Clemson
Sat7:00 PMNotre Dame at Stanford-14.5Stanford by 16.7Stanford
Sat7:00 PMTennessee at Kentucky4Tennessee by 2.6Kentucky
Sat7:00 PMUL-Monroe at UL-Lafayette-15UL-Lafayette by 17.1UL-Lafayette
Sat7:45 PMTexas A&M at Missouri-4.5Missouri by 8.3Missouri
Sat8:00 PMUCLA at USC-3.5USC by 9.1USC
Sat9:30 PMArizona at Arizona State-13Arizona State by 14.6Arizona State
Sat10:15 PMNew Mexico at Boise State-37Boise State by 26.9New Mexico
Sat10:30 PMSan Diego State at UNLV3.5San Diego State by 1.4UNLV
Sat11:00 PMArmy at Hawaii-7Hawaii by 8.4Hawaii
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