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Advanced Baseline men's tennis rankings: July 2014

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Colin Davy's Advanced Baseline ratings have been updated for July. Not surprisingly, when the No. 1 player wins Wimbledon, he remains No. 1.

Still No. 1

A series of close slam losses by Novak Djokovic showed us the pretty clear difference between process and outcome. Process gets you to the top of the advanced ratings; outcomes are remembered. Djokovic has been No. 1 for most of the last two years of Advanced Baseline ratings, but he hadn't won a slam since January 2013. He had reached three finals, a semifinal, and a quarterfinal in that span, but we remember the wins. He finally got another one in an incredible five-set battle against Roger Federer on Sunday.

It is no surprise, then, that Djokovic remains No. 1 in AB, then, just as it should be no surprise that the three players who have reached slam finals in the last couple of months (Djokovic, French Open champ Rafael Nadal, and Wimbledon runner-up Roger Federer) remain in the top three, a good few steps ahead of everybody else. No. 4 Andy Murray, still striving to regain his 2013 form, is actually closer to No. 9 Stan Wawrinka than No. 3 Federer.

Actually, that cluster of players from No. 4 to No. 14 or so is quite interesting. Murray's regression, Juan Martin del Potro's injury, David Ferrer's slight fade, and the surge of actual, honest-to-god interesting young players (No. 10 Milos Raonic, No. 11 Grigor Dimitrov, No. 12 Ernests Gulbis) have created the most exciting kind of glut. Three 25-or-under players have made slam semifinals in two months. Combine that with Wawrinka's late-career blossoming, and you've got the closest thing to parity that we've seen on the men's tour for quite some time.

It's still the Big Three (with Murray holding a reservation to make it the Big Four again) and everybody else. But the second tier is catching up at least a bit. That's exciting.

Hey, Kei

One person I didn't mention above: our new No. 5. Here's Colin Davy on Kei Nishikori:

Kei Nishikori moving up to 5 seemed weird at first, but it's more Del Potro and Ferrer dropping than anything else. Delpo's dropoff is from injury absence, and Ferrer got hit hard by a convincing loss to Challenger mainstay Andrey Kuznetsov.

We're still waiting for a slam breakthrough from the 24-year old from Japan. After a disappointing first-round exit at the French Open, he made only the fourth round at Wimbledon before falling to Raonic in four sets. But we might not have to wait too much longer. The next two slams are played on his best surface, hard courts.

Big Moves

Nishikori moving from eighth to fifth was rather significant, but there were some even bigger moves beneath the surface. Aussie Marinko Matosevic has won matches in each of the last two slams and moves to 40th at age 28, and Bernie Tomic has shown signs of life as well. But the new No. 63 had the most noteworthy fortnight in London. Nick Kyrgios showed some exciting potential in taking Benoit Paire to five sets in the second round of the Australian Open, but he saved his biggest splash for the biggest stage in tennis, taking down Rafael Nadal in four sets in the fourth round. He lost to Raonic in the quarterfinals, and he's still got plenty of growing to do in terms of flexibility and strategy. But he's a natural, and his groundstrokes and serve are all sorts of exciting.

Of course, he's not the only youngster to watch. Davy again:

Kyrgios will get all the hype the next couple months, but Jiri Vesely (who lost to Kyrgios at Wimbledon) has quietly put together a more convincing rise the last couple months. He's much stronger on clay, so it may not translate to the North American hard court swing, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up a random clay 250 in Europe this month.

Sleepers on the concrete

Davy again:

Gilles Muller is the ultimate hard-court dark horse pick right now: #24 in AB hard court but #84 in ATP. He's blocked from direct entry to ATP main draws on account of his rank (can't anyone spare a wild card?), but if he ends up qualifying in Cincinnati or Toronto, no one should want to face him.

Other players who are much better on hard courts than other surfaces: John Isner (No. 10 on hard, No. 20 overall), Matosevic (No. 23 on hard, No. 40 overall), and Tomic (No. No. 26 on hard, No. 41 overall).

Top 20 Americans on hard courts

There's really nothing that will make American men's tennis look particularly good, but it looks better on hard courts than on any other surface, that's for sure.

10. John Isner (No. 20 overall)
41. Sam Querrey (57)
47. Donald Young (76)
51. Steve Johnson (66)
58. Jack Sock (64)
65. Ryan Harrison (100)
82. Denis Kudla (104)
89. Bradley Klahn (128)
101. Tim Smyczek (126)
137. Rajeev Ram (165)
148. Alex Kuznetsov (163)
150. Robby Ginepri (153)
157. Michael Russell (189)
164. Wayne Odesnik (178)
171. Daniel Kosakowski (208)
175. Rhyne Williams (177)
177. AUstin Krajicek (225)
187. Tennys Sandgren (213)
191. Bobby Reynolds (235)
208. Marcos Giron (247)

At the very least, the U.S. should have multiple guys making the third round of the U.S. Open. You take what you can get.

The Rankings

Here is the AB top 300, again presented on a 0-100 scale.

RkNameCountryJune RkChangeOverallClayRkHardRkGrassRk
1Novak DjokovicSRB1097.197.4298.6192.21
2Rafael NadalESP2094.699.2195.5286.93
3Roger FedererSUI3093.091.4694.8390.42
4Andy MurrayGBR4089.186.11292.7486.44
5Kei NishikoriJPN8387.786.31192.1578.79
6Juan Martin Del PotroARG6087.589.4789.7679.18
7Tomas BerdychCZE5-287.287.5989.4780.35
8David FerrerESP7-186.395.0385.61176.612
9Stanislas WawrinkaSUI9085.392.0487.3972.614
10Milos RaonicCAN11183.580.02188.2873.713
11Grigor DimitrovBUL16583.384.81483.61379.76
12Ernests GulbisLAT10-283.087.01082.51471.317
13Jo-Wilfried TsongaFRA12-182.079.42285.11279.27
14Marin CilicCRO15181.681.01781.81678.610
15Tommy HaasGER14-180.080.31882.11577.311
16Gael MonfilsFRA13-379.684.91378.91868.920
17Richard GasquetFRA17075.178.52575.72069.318
18Fabio FogniniITA18075.091.7570.72963.425
19Alexandr DolgopolovUKR20174.880.21978.91862.128
20John IsnerUSA19-174.666.75086.31064.224
21Kevin AndersonRSA23274.470.64481.11767.821
22Radek StepanekCZE24273.874.03274.42271.616
23Nicolas AlmagroESP21-273.688.4870.33162.927
24Roberto Bautista-AgutESP25173.074.13175.52166.522
25Philipp KohlschreiberGER22-372.078.22671.02769.019
26Tommy RobredoESP27170.283.41568.73458.335
27Jeremy ChardyFRA29269.578.72468.83362.029
28Feliciano LopezESP34667.964.95573.12572.315
29Florian MayerGER28-166.972.23769.63261.030
30Mikhail YouzhnyRUS26-466.468.24766.03863.425
31Fernando VerdascoESP30-165.578.82361.44259.631
32Gilles SimonFRA31-164.866.75066.33754.842
33Jiri VeselyCZE40764.574.92961.34357.537
34Dmitry TursunovRUS36262.955.37770.82857.338
35Santiago GiraldoCOL38362.676.62758.24952.748
36Denis IstominUZB43762.557.16970.63059.631
37Lleyton HewittAUS32-562.254.48168.63564.623
38Andreas SeppiITA33-562.072.63458.74854.443
39Ivan DodigCRO37-261.762.25860.84456.340
40Marinko MatosevicAUS521261.650.09573.92357.736
41Bernard TomicAUS612060.749.99672.42658.933
42Ivo KarlovicCRO35-760.556.17664.74058.534
43Martin KlizanSVK48560.382.81649.17550.854
44Julien BenneteauFRA39-559.954.08465.73951.053
45Lukas RosolCZE50559.671.84056.45546.864
46Edouard Roger-VasselinFRA44-259.657.76560.84457.139
47Gilles MullerLUX45-259.445.710373.32447.860
48Dominic ThiemAUT47-159.371.54156.25647.860
49Guillermo Garcia-LopezESP41-859.272.03957.95047.262
50Simone BolelliITA49-158.880.12048.47854.146
51Leonardo MayerARG54358.772.83354.06150.656
52Carlos BerlocqARG42-1058.574.92953.06547.262
53Benoit PaireFRA46-757.667.54856.85445.966
54Marcos BaghdatisCYP51-357.245.610466.53654.443
55Jerzy JanowiczPOL58357.166.35350.17153.547
56Jurgen MelzerAUT56057.158.66457.15351.152
57Sam QuerreyUSA64756.550.29462.94152.549
58Jarkko NieminenFIN59156.059.96055.05948.358
59Paul-Henri MathieuFRA55-455.656.67256.15749.057
60Robin HaaseNED60055.266.25449.57245.966
61Pablo CuevasURU53-854.676.12845.88343.877
62Yen-Hsun LuTPE57-554.244.910560.44652.051
63Nick KyrgiosGRE1013853.751.59257.35255.341
64Jack SockUSA71753.553.68555.75848.159
65Juan MonacoARG62-352.370.44543.29544.573
66Steve JohnsonUSA67151.745.910257.45146.465
67Mikhail KukushkinKAZ72551.654.97853.06542.380
68Pablo Carreno-BustaESP841651.472.33644.29240.885
69David GoffinBEL70151.452.08852.56844.970
70Marcel GranollersESP66-451.367.24944.88642.879
71Alejandro FallaCOL68-350.149.99652.37044.871
72Jan-Lennard StruffGER73149.556.27545.78441.383
73Nikolay DavydenkoRUS65-849.348.79953.86336.8100
74Joao SousaPOR901649.156.37347.18044.871
75Andrey GolubevKAZ74-148.854.28244.78738.192
76Donald YoungUSA80448.841.611458.84737.298
77Igor SijslingNED69-848.751.98944.19344.573
78Albert RamosESP86848.056.87144.38945.868
79Federico DelbonisARG79048.072.13837.311638.093
80Teymuraz GabashviliRUS78-247.957.07047.37937.397
81Thomaz BellucciBRA63-1847.571.24238.610934.9110
82Lukas LackoSVK85347.336.613754.46041.582
83Ricardas BerankisLTU87446.843.411052.46938.790
84Albert MontanesESP76-846.672.53534.113637.994
85Paolo LorenziITA77-846.661.65943.79434.5111
86Sergiy StakhovskyUKR91546.636.114154.06144.573
87Tobias KamkeGER89246.252.18742.49743.278
88Daniel Gimeno-TraverESP83-545.666.65237.211835.8106
89Aljaz BedeneSLO97845.659.36141.59937.596
90Andrey KuznetsovRUS99945.456.37338.511045.169
91Maximo GonzalezARG1182745.470.94335.612732.0119
92Vasek PospisilCAN100845.234.614853.66436.6102
93Pablo AndujarESP81-1245.269.04634.613334.3112
94Thiemo de BakkerNED98444.954.28245.38535.1108
95Michael LlodraFRA75-2044.842.611240.010254.345
96Julian ReisterGER82-1444.864.55635.912440.386
97Blaz KavcicSLO104744.847.210148.57733.7115
98Adrian MannarinoFRA1101244.436.513849.57241.184
99Dusan LajovicSRB92-744.257.36839.510534.3112
100Ryan HarrisonUSA102244.037.513153.06537.895
101Daniel BrandsGER88-1343.354.67937.311636.4104
102Frank DancevicCAN1171542.638.712046.78139.089
103Horacio ZeballosARG1211841.963.15734.613329.7135
104Denis KudlaUSA1161241.735.414446.48242.081
105Dustin BrownGER108341.641.411542.89639.887
106Stephane RobertFRA93-1341.544.810641.79835.5107
107Filip KrajinovicSRB109241.151.79138.710732.2117
108Blaz RolaSLO111340.450.49338.311234.1114
109Nicolas MahutFRA96-1340.233.915136.912252.150
110Benjamin BeckerGER105-539.933.215340.010250.854
111Peter GojowczykGER107-438.937.812839.110635.1108
112Gastao EliasPOR106-638.943.610941.110029.8133
113Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanARG120738.957.46730.316132.1118
114Victor HanescuROU95-1938.759.06230.615631.0122
115Andreas BeckGER102-1338.549.49830.715531.3121
116Andreas Haider-MaurerAUT113-338.354.58032.714230.5126
117James DuckworthAUS1402338.242.511337.811436.1105
118Jimmy WangTPE1392137.528.518544.38944.076
119Kenny de SchepperFRA127837.136.014334.713039.388
120Martin FischerAUT123337.034.214938.710736.8100
121Dudi SelaISR119-236.923.923249.37428.7143
122Pere RibaESP1321036.757.76527.318027.2152
123Matthew EbdenAUS124136.628.119044.68836.5103
124Alejandro GonzalezCOL114-1036.551.89032.214625.6167
125Evgeny DonskoyRUS112-1336.337.313337.911330.1129
126Tim SmyczekUSA1361035.529.617940.910133.0116
127Marco CecchinatoITA1593235.453.48627.018529.2139
128Bradley KlahnUSA125-335.226.520844.38929.3137
129Michael BerrerGER115-1434.930.017635.612730.9124
130Go SoedaJPN1441434.721.924548.87623.0195
131Marius CopilROU128-334.532.316134.713032.0119
132Joao SouzaBRA1602834.443.810832.514425.9164
133Facundo ArguelloARG131-234.448.210028.117129.7135
134Facundo BagnisARG1481434.359.06223.122224.3178
135Illya MarchenkoUKR126-934.326.520838.511028.6144
136Farrukh DustovUZB137133.938.911930.316131.0122
137Samuel GrothAUS1572033.929.518135.812538.391
138Thanasi KokkinakisAUS1612333.732.715837.211828.2146
139Tatsuma ItoJPN1511233.627.419839.910429.9132
140Cedrik-Marcel StebeGER141133.438.512232.614330.1129
141Aleksandr NedovesovUKR121-2033.236.414032.014727.9148
142Rogerio Dutra Da SilvaBRA129-1332.636.913633.513825.1169
143Daniel EvansGBR1561332.428.019234.513526.9158
144Ze ZhangCHN1844032.331.317034.713029.0141
145Marsel IlhanTUR153832.130.717335.712624.1180
146Ilija BozoljacSRB130-1632.126.820136.512326.0162
147Damir DzumhurBIH155831.838.412329.816526.7159
148Malek JaziriTUN134-1431.731.117231.814828.0147
149Alex Bogomolov, Jr.RUS135-1431.425.021937.211826.0162
150Yuki BhambriIND1691931.327.419837.012124.6176
151Norbert GombosSVK1681731.243.111125.020224.8173
152Jan HernychCZE149-331.126.620732.314536.999
153Robby GinepriUSA150-331.029.118431.315029.8133
154Guido PellaARG163931.037.313328.117123.6186
155Steve DarcisBEL146-930.939.911725.020228.4145
156Miloslav MecirSVK1661030.831.516931.115330.7125
157Lukasz KubotPOL158130.838.312526.818730.4127
158Peter PolanskyCAN142-1630.726.820135.612724.8173
159Pierre-Hugues HerbertFRA1943530.526.720530.415730.4127
160Ruben Ramirez-HidalgoESP162230.344.510723.721726.2160
161Yuichi SugitaJPN1791830.322.924237.611525.8166
162Guillaume RufinFRA1721030.235.114529.316727.7150
163Alex KuznetsovUSA1811830.128.418731.814829.1140
164Somdev DevvarmanIND138-2629.927.619633.413924.1180
165Rajeev RamUSA174929.924.522634.013730.1129
166Andrea ArnaboldiITA167129.840.111625.219925.3168
167James WardGBR164-329.432.715830.415726.1161
168Potito StaraceITA133-3529.438.412325.319627.0154
169Jozef KovalikSVK1851629.333.615229.716622.8197
170Guido AndreozziARG1932328.736.513825.819223.9184
171Andrej MartinSVK176528.736.114127.417722.5204
172Marton FucsovicsHUN2214928.530.217527.118429.3137
173Lucas PouilleFRA2043128.332.116527.817523.1192
174Taro DanielJPN178428.332.915527.318024.2179
175Olivier RochusBEL165-1028.225.421630.116328.8142
176Uladzimir IgnatikBLR2032727.926.121228.616924.4177
177Rhyne WilliamsUSA1881127.828.019227.817524.9172
178Wayne OdesnikUSA147-3127.828.019229.916424.1180
179Andre GhemBRA180127.732.715825.319625.1169
180Jason Murray KublerAUS2274727.538.112623.022422.7199
181Filippo VolandriITA143-3827.537.912721.423827.1153
182Adrian UngurROU154-2827.439.411822.423123.2191
183Louk SorensenGER173-1027.426.321131.215223.0195
184Daniel Munoz-De La NavaESP2062227.231.916725.020227.0154
185Henri LaaksonenSUI2082327.232.316125.120122.5204
186Mate DelicCRO2142827.235.114524.321122.2210
187Matthias BachingerGER182-527.128.318927.318025.1169
188Jesse Huta GalungNED170-1827.134.714723.521922.6201
189Michael RussellUSA152-3727.120.925330.415723.9184
190Gerald MelzerAUT187-327.132.316125.219924.7175
191Ante PavicCRO2314027.018.928131.315025.9164
192Amir WeintraubISR190-226.921.924533.413921.8215
193Kimmer CoppejansBEL2253226.831.317025.719422.7199
194Adrian Menendez-MaceirasESP202826.726.820130.415722.4207
195Di WuCHN195026.720.725733.114122.6201
196Kyle EdmundGBR2202426.433.215323.222122.5204
197Victor EstrellaDOM186-1126.332.216425.020221.3220
198Roberto Carballes BaenaESP2222425.930.017624.021323.3190
199Martin AlundARG199025.837.713019.824922.2210
200Thomas SchoorelNED198-225.537.213520.324318.6242
201Antonio VeicCRO2111025.338.612120.024818.6242
201Marc GicquelFRA177-2425.325.821523.921423.4188
203Jurgen ZoppEST2242125.328.119022.223423.1192
204Ruben BemelmansBEL189-1525.125.921423.122227.0154
205Borna CoricCRO2403525.124.422925.819221.9214
205Grega ZemljaSLO183-2225.123.023927.218323.1192
207Tim PuetzGER2413425.126.121222.722727.5151
208Daniel KosakowskiUSA217924.823.523428.117121.7216
209Philipp PetzschnerGERN/AN/A24.820.326226.918627.8149
210Yoshihito NishiokaJPN2362624.729.717822.822521.5218
211Karol BeckSVK205-624.519.826622.722727.0154
212Josselin OuannaFRA207-524.523.023925.519521.6217
213Tennys SandgrenUSA215224.521.924526.818723.6186
214Thomas FabbianoITA191-2324.525.021927.417719.0236
215David GuezFRA175-4024.419.926526.318918.9237
216Bjorn PhauGER196-2024.320.925328.117119.6232
217Mirza BasicBIH201-1624.324.223023.621822.3209
218Alexander KudryavtsevRUS2523424.219.027830.815416.3270
219Alexander WardGBR2513224.125.321724.720620.1226
220Matteo ViolaITA229924.032.815720.624020.2224
221Flavio CipollaITA213-824.021.824828.716818.4246
222Lorenzo GiustinoITA223124.031.816820.524220.1226
223Michal PrzysieznyPOL200-2324.023.223822.822522.4207
224Jaroslav PospisilCZE171-5323.727.719522.323222.6201
225Austin KrajicekUSA2472223.619.627027.417718.9237
226Lamine OuahabALG210-1623.532.016620.324319.9228
227Jonathan EyssericFRA226-123.534.115019.025818.5245
228Inigo CervantesESP230223.337.812817.427016.0275
229Marco ChiudinelliSUI216-1323.317.929528.217018.9237
230Jan MertlCZE212-1823.119.327322.722722.1212
231Hyeon ChungKOR2441322.619.826624.620724.1180
232Jan HajekCZE197-3522.437.413215.929417.5258
233Vincent MillotFRA2431022.320.725724.221218.3248
234Rui MachadoPOR218-1622.227.220020.224718.2251
235Janez SemrajcSLO219-1622.229.318219.725219.7231
235Bobby ReynoldsUSA209-2622.219.327325.919120.6222
237Min-Hyoek ChoKOR233-422.221.724923.322022.0213
238Andrea CollariniARG241322.128.518519.824917.8252
239Yann MartiSUI237-222.125.021922.722718.4246
240Alexander ZverevGER2864622.023.023921.723621.3220
241James McgeeIRL239-222.020.426024.421019.3234
242John-Patrick SmithAUS250821.820.825522.323221.5218
243Maxime AuthomBEL228-1521.823.823318.026522.8197
244Gianluigi QuinziITA2631921.828.418718.526223.4188
245Axel MichonFRA246121.732.915517.626916.3270
246Radu AlbotMDA234-1221.620.126426.318914.7293
247Marcos GironUSAN/AN/A21.518.828324.520819.5233
248John MillmanAUS257921.518.228925.319620.6222
249Florent SerraFRA235-1420.819.627023.821518.6242
250Albano OlivettiFRA248-220.717.429820.624018.3248
251Jared DonaldsonUSA38313220.719.826623.821516.3270
252Artem SmirnovUKR2722020.725.321718.826015.0284
253Dominik MeffertGER232-2120.421.325119.824918.9237
254Matteo TrevisanITA238-1620.323.423617.826819.8229
255Jordi Samper-MontanaESP2772220.226.820117.127417.4260
256Agustin VelottiARG253-320.224.223019.325616.6267
257Emilio GomezECU255-220.018.728421.323918.8241
258Denys MolchanovUKR2681019.915.930924.520816.2274
259Guilherme ClezarBRA258-119.924.522617.926617.6256
260Roberto MarcoraITA2761619.726.720517.227317.4260
261Gonzalo LamaCHI2711019.629.318215.230215.9276
262Stefano TravagliaITA2751319.429.617914.631315.0284
263Simon GreulGER249-1419.324.922416.129017.7254
264Rik de VoestRSA261-319.214.633421.723620.2224
265Renzo OlivoARG265019.027.619615.230215.2282
266Victor CrivoiROU259-718.930.617413.533514.4298
267Niels DeseinBEL260-718.823.323716.129016.9263
268Mischa ZverevGER256-1218.816.930118.726117.6256
269Christian GarinCHI278918.722.224316.828018.3248
270Daniel CoxGBR264-618.714.932822.223414.9288
271Pedro SousaPOR262-918.625.021916.428714.9288
272Paul CapdevilleCHI254-1818.620.426019.625313.9307
273Juan Ignacio LonderoARG270-318.424.622515.629815.9276
274Alessandro GiannessiITA269-518.426.421015.729614.6296
275Michael LinzerAUT267-818.223.523415.829516.3270
276Gianni MinaFRA3032718.119.127718.426417.1262
277Gregoire BurquierFRA266-1118.117.529716.628417.7254
278Konstantin KravchukRUS2901217.913.036820.324317.8252
279Joris De LooreBEL3547517.719.726916.728317.5258
280Franco SkugorCRO2931317.622.124417.027613.2322
281Alessio di MauroITA245-3617.424.522614.431713.9307
282Egor GerasimovBLR3082617.415.332019.025815.6279
283Arthur De GreefBEL274-917.421.724915.130616.9263
284Benjamin MitchellAUS289517.314.833019.625316.4269
285Daniel SmethurstGBR2991417.215.631716.828013.8312
286Andres MolteniARG273-1316.918.528615.729616.8265
286Mate PavicCRO3344816.914.034519.225719.2235
288Thiago Moura MonteiroBRA3304216.819.227516.828014.1302
289Marco TrungellitiARG283-616.525.021912.735212.9326
290Luke SavilleAUS3627216.515.731217.027619.8229
291Julien ObryFRA296516.317.230017.327115.0284
292Dimitar KutrovskyBUL280-1216.314.932815.030816.8265
293Toni AndroicCRO295216.219.527214.831014.7293
294Filip PeliwoCAN3414716.115.831116.528516.5268
295Noah RubinUSA3192416.115.731216.328915.0284
296Mathias BourgueFRA3929616.019.227515.430013.6315
297Adam PavlasekCZE3071016.018.528614.531515.5280
298Nicolas JarryCHI40510715.920.525914.132313.5318
299Martin VaisseFRA297-215.911.639120.324313.5318
300Aldin SetkicBIH304415.914.733317.926612.6332

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