I'm testing out a new format here, attempting to incorporate some of the Five Factors concepts we discussed in the offseason (and make these posts a little bit more mobile-friendly. Feedback is welcome. Actually, feedback is requested.
Auburn 20, Kansas State 14
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 70 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 30.2 | 35.4 | 29.9 |
| Possessions | 11 | 11 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* | 5 | 7 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 4.00 | 2.00 | 4.74 |
| Leverage Rate** | 61.8% | 68.6% | 68.5% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.431 | 0.450 | 0.494 |
| * A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) | |||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | |
| Total | 19.8 | 19.9 | |
| Rushing | 5.0 | 6.8 | |
| Passing | 14.8 | 13.1 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 35.5% | 37.1% | 38.1% |
| Rushing (close) | 24.4% | 29.6% | 37.7% |
| Passing (close) | 51.6% | 41.9% | 38.5% |
| Standard Downs | 36.2% | 31.3% | 42.6% |
| Passing Downs | 34.5% | 50.0% | 28.4% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.45 | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Passing (close) | 0.92 | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| Standard Downs | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| Passing Downs | 0.73 | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| Line Stats | Auburn | Kansas State | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.19 | 1.73 | 2.89 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% |
| Turnovers | Auburn | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 3.9 | 14.0 |
| Turnover Margin | Auburn +2 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Auburn +0.07 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Auburn +1.93 | |
| TO Points Margin | Auburn +10.1 points | |
| Situational | Auburn | Kansas State |
| Q1 S&P | 0.210 | 0.283 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.319 | 0.353 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.368 | 0.330 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.400 | 0.466 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.227 | 0.252 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.354 | 0.375 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.505 | 0.534 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Auburn +9.9 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Auburn +6 | ||
Basically, this tells us about what we should have expected: turnovers and blown scoring opportunities ruined the evening for Kansas State. There was a little bit of luck/randomness involved -- based on passes defensed and fumbles, one would have assumed closer to an even turnover margin than Auburn +2; and then there's the whole "missed a 22-yard field goal" thing -- but as I wrote for SB Nation last week, Auburn also had fewer execution errors, and that isn't luck.