Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17
Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here.
| Basics | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 63 | |
| Close Rate (non-garbage time) | 100.0% | ||
| Avg Starting FP | 20.6 | 31.1 | 29.7 |
| Possessions | 11 | 14 | |
| Scoring Opportunities* | 5 | 5 | |
| Points Per Opportunity | 2.00 | 4.80 | 4.69 |
| Leverage Rate** | 74.7% | 58.7% | 68.4% |
| Close S&P*** | 0.473 | 0.473 | 0.508 |
| * A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40). ** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs) *** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP) | |||
| EqPts (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | |
| Total | 18.8 | 21.3 | |
| Rushing | 9.3 | 3.9 | |
| Passing | 9.5 | 17.4 | |
| Success Rate (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 45.3% | 34.9% | 42.2% |
| Rushing (close) | 44.2% | 23.3% | 43.6% |
| Passing (close) | 46.9% | 45.5% | 40.7% |
| Standard Downs | 53.6% | 43.2% | 47.5% |
| Passing Downs | 21.1% | 23.1% | 30.7% |
| IsoPPP (what's this?) | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| All (close) | 0.55 | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Rushing (close) | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| Passing (close) | 0.63 | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Standard Downs | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| Passing Downs | 0.72 | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Line Stats | Alabama | Ole Miss | Nat'l Avg |
| Line Yards/Carry (what's this?) | 2.90 | 1.76 | 2.93 |
| Std. Downs Sack Rt. | 0.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| Pass. Downs Sack Rt. | 10.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| Turnovers | Alabama | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Turnover Points (what's this?) | 7.6 | 6.6 |
| Turnover Margin | Ole Miss +1 | |
| Exp. TO Margin | Alabama +0.44 | |
| TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin) | Ole Miss +1.44 | |
| TO Points Margin | Ole Miss +0.9 points | |
| Situational | Alabama | Ole Miss |
| Q1 S&P | 0.402 | 0.434 |
| Q2 S&P | 0.469 | 0.240 |
| Q3 S&P | 0.551 | 0.565 |
| Q4 S&P | 0.455 | 0.585 |
| 1st Down S&P | 0.518 | 0.435 |
| 2nd Down S&P | 0.441 | 0.532 |
| 3rd Down S&P | 0.380 | 0.475 |
| Projected Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 3.4 | ||
| Actual Scoring Margin: Ole Miss by 6 | ||
By my count, Alabama had won 30 straight games and 42 of 43 when allowing fewer than 24 points. Well, now it's 42 of 44, I guess. Ole Miss ran the ball about as poorly as I assumed, but Bo Wallace not only avoided disaster but made some plays -- 58 percent completion rate, 13.9 yards per completion, a 50-yarder to Evan Engram, a 34-yarder to Vince Sanders. There was no Bad Bo to be found, and if Bad Bo is on two-month vacation, the Rebs are going to win a lot of games.
(Bad Bo probably isn't on two-month vacation -- he made an extended appearance the week before against Memphis -- but if he also times his appearances well, Ole Miss could still roll.)