The big 2015 Georgia Southern football guide: Could've moved up years ago

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1. Well that went well

Georgia State may not be doing much damage at the top sub-division of FBS, but if the Panthers helped to convince the Eagles to finally promote themselves, maybe that's a worthwhile legacy.

For most of three decades, Georgia Southern proved all it needed to at the I-AA/FCS level. Erk Russell took over in Statesboro in 1982 and ran what was basically a club team. The Eagles opened Paulson Stadium in 1984 and immediately began to win: I-AA national titles in 1985 and 1986, runner-up in 1988, national title in 1989.

The Eagles misplaced the magic under Tim Stowers (who replaced Russell and won the '90 title), averaging eight wins per year and reaching only the quarterfinals twice in five seasons. But eventual flexbone master Paul Johnson (Russell's offensive coordinator) took over and kindled another title run: 10 wins in 1997, national runner-up in 1998 (Sagarin ranking: 66th overall, ahead of half of what was then I-A), national champion in 1999 (46th) and 2000 (52nd).

TL;DR

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2014 F/+ ranking and record: 57 (9-3)

5-year recruiting ranking: 104

Biggest strength: The backfield

Biggest question mark: A passive secondary becomes an awfully young secondary

Biggest 2015 game: at West Virginia (Sept. 5)

In one sentence: Georgia Southern will have a shot at another 8-0 Sun Belt campaign, but losses in the trenches might trip the Eagles.

GS fell again when Johnson left for Navy, but Jeff Monken went 31-12 from 2010-12 and beat Florida in 2013 with an injury-plagued squad. It was time.

Wow, was it time. In Georgia Southern's first year under Willie Fritz and in the Sun Belt, it posted a top-60 F/+ ranking, finished with nine wins, and went undefeated in the conference.

The Eagles' success brought light to the silly "first-year teams aren't allowed to play in bowls (unless no one else is eligible)" rule. Regardless, it was a hell of a first campaign. And if the returnees are any indication, the encore should be fun, too. There will be bowl opportunities in the near future.

So ... tell me again why Georgia Southern didn't move up a long time ago?

It's interesting to see who chooses to make the FCS-to-FBS jump and who eschews it. Marshall won a single FCS title in 1992 and almost immediately prepared to make the leap. (The Herd won the title again in 1996, then won the MAC in their first try in 1997.) Youngstown State won four titles in seven years between 1991 and '97 under Jim Tressel but never jumped, even though it was superior to half the MAC at the time. Scores of middling programs have jumped despite minimal accomplishments, hoping that money would kickstart a run of success.

Meanwhile, powers like Georgia Southern and three-time champion Appalachian State didn't until their sprees of titles were over. And four-time (and counting) champion North Dakota State has yet to decide that a potential run in the MAC is worthwhile.

Perhaps the money just never made sense. Perhaps the thought of raising a national title trophy is more enjoyable than raising a bowl of potatoes. Whatever the reason, Georgia Southern could have moved to the Sun Belt a lot earlier than it did. But the Eagles' debut, as delayed as it may have been, went even better than expected.

2014 Schedule & Results

2. No place like Statesboro

Georgia Southern's first September in FBS began to look even more impressive in October and November. The Eagles narrowly fell to what turned out to be a pretty good NC State, then lost by only four points to a Georgia Tech that would become Orange Bowl champion three months later.

The Eagles' first Sun Belt campaign then began with two three-possession wins over eventual bowl eligible (in record, at least) South Alabama and Appalachian State teams. Not bad.

There were a couple of dips -- the Eagles were unimpressive against New Mexico State and laid a ridiculous egg against Navy -- but they went 8-0 in the Sun Belt, averaging at least 6 yards per play in seven of eight games and allowing 5.3 or fewer per play in six. And they could boast something that not every SBC team can: home-field advantage.

• Average percentile performance (five home games): 69% (record: 5-0)
• Average percentile performance (seven road games): 46% (record: 4-3)

Southern won its five home games by margins of 74, 20, 23, and 32 before a 22-16 slog over ULM in the season finale, averaging more than 21,000 in attendance. Granted, only one of six 2015 home opponents ranked better than 89th last year, so a significant advantage might not be necessary to keep up the unbeaten streak, but Paulson Stadium could make a difference in an early battle of mid-major powerhouses -- Western Michigan at GS on September 12 -- and it's nice to have that in your back pocket.

Offense

3. Willie Fritz knows option

Georgia Southern and option football have long been synonymous, and not just during Paul Johnson's stints. Southern has rarely struggled to attract the talent to run a successful attack, and it has been an identity during most of the Eagles' successful seasons. Efforts by coaches like Brian VanGorder and Chris Hatcher to steer away from the triple option went awry quickly.

When Jeff Monken left Statesboro after 2013 to attempt to bring success back to Army, Southern made a hire that was both predictable and forward-thinking. Willie Fritz spent 13 seasons mastering a modern option of sorts at Central Missouri, then took over at Sam Houston State, a middling Southland Conference program. He went 6-5 in 2010, then caught fire, going 25-5 in 2011-12, winning two straight Southland titles and reaching the FCS championship twice in a row.

The Fritz offense is familiar and unfamiliar. The read-option concepts are obvious, but used frequently in spread formations. There is an option or a run fake on nearly every play.

Cases in point:

The scheme offers flexibility, run lanes, and occasional easy throws. The run rates scream "Option football!" but there's a modernized aspect that should allow Fritz and Georgia Southern to easily recruit.

The attack worked in 2014, anyway. Georgia Southern led the nation in rushing yards per game and produced big passing plays. Starting quarterback Kevin Ellison had 167 rush attempts to 132 pass attempts (including sacks as passes) and averaged more than 14 yards per completion.

One added benefit to the attack last year: the Eagles were efficient and flexible enough that opposing defenses tended to fall apart in the second half. Look at the per-quarter S&P+ rankings above: 40th and 60th in the first and second quarters, respectively, then 15th and 17th in the third and fourth.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Running Back

4. Hold onto the ball, Kevin

Modernized or not, Georgia Southern's attack did feature one liability familiar to option offenses: fumbles. Ellison fumbled 10 times, and leading rusher Matt Breida fumbled four. That Southern managed to recover nine of these 14 was a bit lucky (it was also a product of the offense being more likely to recover fumbles in the backfield).

Drops were sources of negative plays that mostly didn't exist otherwise. The Eagles' attack combined strong efficiency with big-play potential, all in a scheme designed to succeed near the goal line.

Ellison was a good enough passer that there was no significant drop in production on passing downs; we'll see how much he misses his No. 2 and No. 3 targets, Zach Walker and Kentrellis Showers. B.J. Johnson does return, as do 1,400-yard rusher Breida and his top backup, L.A. Ramsby. Incoming freshmen like back Wesley Fields and receivers Obe Fortune and D'Ondre Glenn could threaten to see the field, but the top of the totem pole is set. And if Ellison happens to get hurt, we learned that backup Favian Upshaw is capable of steering the ship.

Receiving Corps

Offensive Line

5. A lot to replace up front

The losses go beyond two top receivers. Though aided by scheme and skill players, Georgia Southern's line produced some of the best stats in the Sun Belt. The Eagles kept a clean backfield. And now they must replace four starters, including three-year first-stringers Garrett Frye and Manrey Saint-Amour.

Previous injuries could help. The line got massacred by injuries in previous years, so likely starters like Maurice Hunt Jr. and Jeff Ward have gotten playing time. Plus, last year's experience meant Fritz could redshirt three-star freshmen Trayvon Williams, Christian Taylor, and Tristan Hill.

A drop-off can mean bad things for any offense -- it raises a red flag -- but there's more experience and potential here than should exist on a line that loses those responsible for 132 starts.

Defense

6. Bend, bend, and hope you don't break late

Thanks to offensive efficiency, solid kickoffs, and efficient returns, Georgia Southern had an effective field position game. In average starting field position, the Eagles' plus-5.6 margin was eighth in the country and easily first in the Sun Belt. Only one other SBC team (UL-Lafayette) was better than plus-3.

This is a remarkable accomplishment, considering how inefficient the defense was. It wasn't bad by Sun Belt standards, but it was still a weakness. The Eagles allowed greater than 6.1 yards per play against NC State and Georgia Tech, 8 to Navy and, strangely, 7.5 to Georgia State.

The Eagles were particularly flexible via the air; opponents knew that throwing was the easier path, and beyond Nick Wright, the cornerbacks were passive, allowing completions and aiming to prevent big plays.

Defensive coordinator Jack Curtis might have his work cut out for him. The front seven returns active pieces like end Bernard Dawson and linebacker Antwione Williams, but the secondary that was a weakness a year ago is a younger weakness this time.

Defensive Line

Linebackers

7. Experience won't be an issue

The defensive front was passive too, considering the No. 107 ranking in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line) and sack rate rankings in the 80s.

Still, the Eagles flowed quickly to the ball and did a decent job of stopping non-option running attacks. (In an ironic twist, the Eagles got torched by Georgia Tech's and Navy's triple-option attacks to the tune of 742 combined rushing yards. But they allowed 110.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry otherwise.)

Most of the reasons for that decent play are back. Of the eight linemen with at least three tackles for loss, seven return; so do two of the three linebackers with at least four. The Eagles survived shuffling last fall and should benefit from experience. And if well-touted reserves like linebacker Ken Butler Jr., sophomore tackle Darrius Sapp, and freshman ends Logan Hunt and J.B. Kouassi are able to contribute, the depth and athleticism will be upgrades.

Secondary

8. Lots of 3-star freshmen, lots of openings

Again, this defense was decent, it just dragged down Southern's overall ratings. The top two safeties, Antonio Glover and Matt Dobson, combined for 8.5 tackles for loss, four picks, and five break-ups, and departed corner Nick Wright made plays.

Plus, this unit isn't exactly a black hole of inexperience: the Eagles return six senior and three junior DBs who made at least 4.5 tackles.

Still, a) the secondary wasn't very good, and b) the 4-2-5 structure of the defense requires as many warm bodies as possible in the back. GS signed six defensive backs -- five high schoolers and a JUCO transfer -- who were given three-star designations by the 247Sports Composite. One would assume they'll have opportunity to win jobs on the two-deep. If one of the incoming corners is able to make an impact, it wouldn't be hard to see this unit holding steady despite losing a couple of starters.

Special Teams

9. Special teams options

It was an all-hands-on-deck experience last year -- two players attempted PATs, two had at least 14 kickoffs, two had at least three punts (if you include Kevin Ellison, who was two-for-three on downing pooch-kicks inside the 20), two had at least 12 kick returns, and two had at least eight punt returns.

And everybody but the punt returners are back. Experience doesn't necessarily make you better, but it's hard to see this unit getting worse.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

10. Aim high

There are question marks. When you lose four offensive line starters, your offense does tend to regress. Plus, only three Eagles were targeted by passes more than once per game last year, and only one returns. And a bend-don't-break defense that broke a few times might have more issues in the secondary than last year. So after a surprising top-60 finish in the F/+ ratings, there's nothing guaranteeing the Eagles won't stumble into the 70s, or even the 80s with some injuries.

But even with a stumble, Georgia Southern is going to be a force and a favorite in the Sun Belt, especially considering the schedule, which allows the Eagles to avoid UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State for a second straight year. A trip to Appalachian State could be tricky, but the odds of Georgia Southern moving from 8-0 to 16-0 all-time in the Sun Belt are at least decent.

Assuming the Eagles make waves again in-conference, they'll have a couple of opportunities to announce their presence nationally. A late-season trip to Athens awaits, and while Georgia will probably be too much, a West Virginia with a rebuilt offense might not. If the Georgia Southern secondary is up to the task (and it might not be), a season-opening upset win in Morgantown isn't off the table.

We had to wait a while to welcome Georgia Southern to the FBS ranks, but the Eagles will fit in just fine, even if they aren't quite as good in Year 2 as in Year 1.