The big 2015 North Texas football guide: Mean Green pick up the pieces

The 128-team countdown celebrates St. Patrick's Day by looking into the country's greenest program.

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1. Winning's hard

McCarney lifting a monstrosity of a Heart of Dallas trophy a couple of months after almost winning Conference USA in the team's first attempt wasn't the high point. But it was the highest point in a while, the completion of a comeback suffered endless false starts.

And now comes the hard part. Succeeding isn't easy, but a lot of programs do it. Succeeding again takes something different, and McCarney knows it.

McCarney has a new contract, some new assistant coaches, and a roster that is deep with options and thin on experience. It might be unreasonable to expect North Texas to win nine games again in 2013, but the depth of the fall will be telling.

So ... the depth of the fall was pretty significant.

TL;DR

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

2014 F/+ ranking and record: 125 (4-8)

5-year recruiting ranking: 111

Biggest strength: Plenty of experience after last year's shuffling

Biggest question mark: Hard to pick one -- 2014 was a total collapse

Biggest 2015 game: at SMU (Sept. 12)

In one sentence: North Texas battled extreme turnover and barely lived to tell the tale; how much can an experienced Mean Green squad rebound?

A year after winning nine games and putting one of the best mid-major products onto the field, Dan McCarney was tasked with replacing his quarterback, his leading rusher, his two leading receivers (and starting tight end), six members of his defensive front seven, a stud free safety, and one of the best return men in the country. He boasted what was expected to be a good offensive line, a good punter, and ... mysteries.

He didn't solve many. He went through three quarterbacks before he found one who could complete 50 percent without turnovers. He never really found a running back. He found a receiver, but he didn't have a quarterback to get Carlos Harris the ball. His offensive line more or less fell apart. His defense fell apart because of both inconsistency and injury. His defensive coordinator retired.

Building a winner is hard, and no program understands that better than North Texas.

The Mean Green went 18-4 in 1977-78 under Hayden Fry, lost Fry to Iowa, fell to 2-9, and dropped out of the Division I-A ranks. They came back in 1995 and proceeded to go 19-47 over six seasons before breaking through under Darrell Dickey and winning four consecutive Sun Belt titles. And as quickly as it came together, it fell apart. After winning 24 games from 2002-04, North Texas won 13 from 2005-10. McCarney took over after the disastrous Todd Dodge era, won nine games in his first two years, then won nine in his third. And again, it fell apart.

If 2014 was about the depth of the fall, 2015 is about the ferocity of the rebound. With all the experience they didn't have, the Mean Green should bounce back from last year's No. 125 F/+ ranking, but by how much? Five spots? Twenty? McCarney has options on offense and injury-related depth, but we'll find out how much actual talent his roster has.

2014 Schedule & Results

2. Worst road team (or best home team) ever

Home-field advantage is a more complicated term than we realize. We tend to say teams like Alabama or Oklahoma or Oregon have great home-field advantages, but those are typically also great road teams. They don't get much of a home-town bump because they're usually excellent anywhere.

In an old ESPN Insider piece I wrote in 2009, I ignored the idea of an "advantage" and focused on teams that perform most different home and away. In the 2000s, that meant a team like Texas Tech that was 15 points better at home. Using adjusted scoring margin above, North Texas was around minus-2.7 points per game at home and minus-51.1 on the road. That's drastic.

• Average Percentile Performance (6 home games): 49% (record: 4-2)
• Average Percentile Performance (6 road games): 3% (record: 0-6)

At home, UNT was decent. The Mean Green handled SMU, FAU, and FIU as one should and destroyed an obviously bad Nicholls State. There were hiccups against Southern Miss and, to a degree, Louisiana Tech, but North Texas didn't look like the fourth-worst team in the country.

On the road, UNT was perhaps No. 128 out of 128. The Mean Green gained 94 yards at Texas, allowed 593 at Indiana, and allowed 452 (7.3 per play) at UTSA. They were outgained by 205 yards at Rice and by 237 yards at UTEP. By keeping the tempo down, they prevented themselves from losing games by 40 points, but they still lost by at least 18 in five of six games, and while they were able to hang with UTSA ... UTSA wasn't good.

North Texas was just about the worst road team imaginable. We'll see if experience can change that.

Offense

3. Wanted (desperately): big plays

The identity remained mostly the same. After rushing 65 percent of the time on standard downs in 2013, the Mean Green rushed 66 percent in 2014. On passing downs, they moved up slightly, from rushing 32 percent of the time to 35. They did a lot more rushing when down big, and they operated at a slower pace; both of these suggest they were trying to keep morale up and lose by as little as possible during the bad performances.

But without Derek Thompson at quarterback (7.1 yards per attempt, 64 percent completion rate in 2013), without Brandin Byrd in the backfield (1,075 yards, 6.2 highlight yards per opportunity in 2013), and without Brelan Chancellor and Darnell Smith at receiver (1,583 receiving yards, 8.8 per target in 2013), there was no chance of being what they were the year before. North Texas didn't have a ton of big play potential in 2013, but the Mean Green made up for it with extreme efficiency. Without the players above, they became even less likely to break a big play, and they lost any semblance of big-play ability they had.

When healthy, running back Antoinne Jimmerson might have a little bit of game-breaker ability. When quarterbacks Andrew McNulty and Dajon Williams break out of the backfield, they get pretty far upfield. And if he has a decent battery mate, receiver Carlos Harris (12.3 yards per catch, 63 percent catch rate) brings a solid mix of efficiency and big-play potential to the table. But these players' big-play opportunities were too heavily limited to figure out their ceilings.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

4. Pick a quarterback, any quarterback

I called Mike Canales' offensive system "QB friendly" in last year's preview. Canales runs more frequently than the national average and gives his quarterbacks opportunities for easy horizontal throws. It is an efficiency-based system, and it can work. But we found "QB friendly" doesn't guarantee good quarterback play.

JUCO transfer Josh Greer won the starting job but completed a horrendous 15 of 38 against Texas and Louisiana Tech and surrendered his job to dual-threat Dajon Williams. Williams torched Nicholls State (11-for-14 for 176 yards, plus four carries for 68 yards) but threw four picks against Indiana and UAB, got benched, and spent quite a bit of the rest of the year in the doghouse.

After apparent hesitation, McCarney and Canales gave the job to 2013 backup Andrew McNulty, who showed upside amid inconsistency. He was 29-for-49 (59 percent) against UAB and Southern Miss but 15-for-33 (45 percent) against Rice, 12-for-16 against FAU and 9-for-20 against FIU.

McNulty enters as an unsafe incumbent. The senior is competent, but Williams appears to have more upside if he can keep from turning the ball over, and newcomers like redshirt freshman Connor Means, JUCO transfer DaMarcus Smith, and big, athletic freshman Caleb Chumley will certainly be given the opportunity to unseat him.

An efficiency offense is fine if you can keep your completion percentage in the 60s. UNT didn't even come close.

Running Back

Receiving Corps

Offensive Line

5. Starting over up front

In theory, having competition should produce a solid starter. Jimmerson can be a solid runner, Carlos Harris is a proven entity, Jeffrey Wilson rushed for 105 yards in the season finale, and quite a few young receivers could provide a nice threat. With a few "ifs" and "coulds," you can create a good set of skill players.

But even if that is solved, UNT has something to prove up front. Last year's line featured three three-year starters and a second-year starting center, and it still produced awful stats, in part because of the players behind it. But now the Mean Green must replace four starters who combined for 156 career starts. Center Kaydon Kirby is back, Ryan Rentfro and Michael Banogu have been part of the rotation recently, and ... that's it.

Defense

6. Aggressive and undermanned

More from last year:

North Texas had one of the most efficient mid-major defenses in the country. The Mean Green logged 79 tackles for loss, 39 sacks, and 17 forced fumbles. (They blocked seven kicks, as well. Seven!) They were physical up front and hard-hitting in the back. And now they must almost completely rebuild.

Twelve North Texas defenders recorded at least 2.5 tackles for loss in 2013. The Mean Green tried to keep as many players as possible close to the line of scrimmage, daring you to beat them deep. It was a gamble that paid off more often than not, but we'll see how aggressive defensive coordinator John Skladany feels he can be now that six of the aforementioned 12 defenders are gone.

Skladany found himself in a tough spot, stuck between what he wanted to do on defense and what he could do with his personnel. Already outmanned because of turnover, he had to deal with constant shuffling up front, and UNT's defense collapsed from top to bottom. The Mean Green fell from 33rd in Success Rate+ and 70th in IsoPPP+ to 123rd and 122nd, respectively, and Skladany retired.

There were disruptive moments -- the pass rush wasn't awful, and when UNT could attack the line in short yardage, it did so pretty well.

But on a play-for-play basis, this was a miserable unit, and it started up front. New defensive coordinator Chris Cosh -- a veteran former DC at Illinois (1996), Michigan State (1998), South Carolina (2003), Maryland (2006-08), Kansas State (2009-11), and South Florida (2012) -- will bring some new ideas to the table, but it won't matter if the line isn't more stable.

Defensive Line

7. Injuries hurt in the present tense...

...but help in the future tense. When glancing at a team's individual defensive stats, I tend to take a quick approach to determining whether someone was a regular: if he averaged at least a tackle per game played, he was probably in the rotation.

In 2013, UNT had six regulars on the defensive line and five at linebacker. In 2014, the Mean Green had eight and six, respectively, and a ninth lineman averaged 0.9 per game.

That is a sign of constant shuffling. Only two of the nine played in all 12 games. Leading pass rusher Chad Polk missed two games, fellow starting end Daryl Mason missed three. Sir Calvin Wallace was the only tackle to play in all 12 games. Considering 2013's top two ends and top two tackles were gone, this led UNT right past "depth issues" and into "depth crisis."

Mason is gone, but the other eight linemen who got decent playing time are back, including Polk and Wallace. Toss in JUCO transfer Jareid Combs, and on paper you've got depth far beyond what you had. The pass rush should continue to be solid, but the run defense has a bit to prove.

At linebacker, UNT's best run supporter Derek Akunne is gone, but five others got experience last year. Of course, experience only matters for players with potential, and the five primary returnees combined for just 8.5 tackles for loss and four pass breakups; Akunne had 8.5 and two by himself.

Linebackers

Secondary

8. Transplant in the back

Aside from the offensive line, the secondary was probably the second-most experienced unit. And like the offensive line, a) it didn't perform as well as expected, and b) it faces a rebuild. Both starting safeties and two of the top three cornerbacks are gone, leaving corner Kenny Buyers, sophomore safety Kishawn McClain and question marks.

Chad Davis seems to have potential (he defensed three passes while on the field long enough to make only six tackles), but players like JUCO transfers James Gray and Xavier Grindle, FBS transfers Kerrick Rhone and Jakil Moore, and incoming freshmen Ashton Preston and Nate Brooks will get the opportunity to work into the lineup.

Special Teams

9. Again a strength

Through all of last year's struggles, North Texas could again count on its special teams unit to bail it out to a degree. Place-kicker Trevor Moore made sure that just about any trip inside the opponent's 40 ended up in at least three points (and as a freshman, no less), and Eric Keena and Blake Macek provided sturdy legs in the realm of punting and kickoffs.

The return game regressed dramatically following the departure of the explosive Brelan Chancellor, and because of that, UNT's special teams ranking fell from 16th in 2013 to 39th. But it was obviously the least of the Mean Green's problems, and with everybody back, that should be the case again.

2015 Schedule & Projection Factors

10. Not the best schedule for a rebound

In its first year in Conference USA, FBS newcomer Charlotte plays seven teams that ranked 96th or worse in F/+ last year. North Texas plays four. Granted, four of five home opponents ranked 86th or worse, so if the Mean Green are decent at home again, the win total should get propped up.

But three of the season's most winnable games (SMU, Southern Miss, MTSU) are on the road, and any chance of a return to bowl eligibility will depend on the Mean Green figuring out how to improve away from Denton.

It's almost a guarantee that North Texas will be better. The defense could benefit from last year's injuries, the recruiting class could offer some immediate help at nearly every position, and if nothing else, there are more options at quarterback than there were last year.

If this team holds steady at home and plays better on the road, then 6-6 is a possibility. But the margin for error here is small, and after such a ferocious collapse, UNT bears the burden of proof.