Florida State can still beat Clemson, if the Noles answer these 3 questions

A two-loss season counts as a disappointment in Tallahassee. Here’s what FSU has to do to disappoint somebody else.

Playoff-wise, Florida State's season is already over. The Seminoles have lost twice, ceding control of the ACC Atlantic to not only Clemson, but also Louisville.

Injuries have prevented us from seeing what FSU was *supposed* to be. Star safety Derwin James has been out since mid-September, and fellow defensive back Nate Andrews is lost for the season. Injuries have piled up on the defensive front, and now Bobo Wilson, the most frequently targeted receiver, is limping.

Running back Dalvin Cook is still Dalvin Cook, but he's having to break tackles more quickly than he did last year, as the offensive line has been glitchy. FSU remains strong in short-yardage situations but has let quite a few defenders into the backfield on Cook's rushes and Deondre Francois' passes.

It's been a frustrating fall in Tallahassee.

FSU has already beaten two S&P+ top-25 teams, by the way. Jimbo Fisher's Noles rank 14th themselves, and their two strongest remaining opponents -- Clemson and Florida -- have to come to Tallahassee.

Despite the injury issues, the defense has allowed 25 total points in its last two games and derailed a charging Miami offense two games ago, and it has gotten a bye week to rest and reassess.

It's been nearly two years since Dabo Swinney's Tigers lost a regular season game, but they have played with fire in 2016, and trips to Doak Campbell Stadium have disrupted the plans of plenty of great teams.

Fisher is embracing the chance.

“We’ve played well the last few weeks and have got a great opportunity in front of us,” he told media this week. “Another big ACC matchup, great for our conference, great for our league, great for both teams.”

We've slept on this game because it lost some luster, but it's still a vital game for Clemson in a crowded national title race, and FSU might be ready to play its best game of the season.

Here are the key questions.

1. Can the Noles protect their QB against the best line they’ve seen yet?

Deondre Francois has shown remarkable poise for a redshirt freshman. He has thrown just three interceptions in 221 passes, and his timing has been outstanding. He uses his legs to move the chains about three times per game, and on third-and-10 or more, his passer rating is 176.

Francois has taken a ton of hits, however. FSU’s offense ranks 77th in Adj. Sack Rate.

Francois was sacked three times against Ole Miss and five times against Louisville, and only once in seven games has he gone down fewer than twice.

Clemson gets to almost any passer. The Tigers defense ranks fifth in Adj. Sack Rate. They seemingly lose their entire starting line every year and dominate all the same. Their advantage in this area is significant.

Clemson gets pressure without having to blitz. Four linemen have at least three sacks each, led by senior Carlos Watkins (4.5), as coordinator Brent Venables throws pressure in waves.

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FSU ranks eighth in Passing S&P+ and fourth in Passing Downs S&P+, in part because of Francois’ efficient passing and in part because of opponent adjustments. The Seminoles have played five teams in the S&P+ top 30. But while they went 3-1 against teams between 19th and 29th, they had no answers for Louisville’s pass rush in September. Francois averaged 2.4 yards per pass attempt, going 7 for 18 with five sacks.

FSU’s offensive line has shown progress. Miami’s got an excellent pass rush and put quite a few hits on Francois but sacked him only once.

But if the Noles cannot keep Francois upright, nothing else matters.

2. If Clemson’s been saving Deshaun Watson’s legs for this game, can FSU get off the field on third-and-5?

On offense, FSU wants to avoid passing downs for obvious reasons: that’s when a good pass rush can really get you. That makes Cook one of the most important players; if he’s able to keep FSU in second-and-6 or third-and-3, Clemson can’t pin its ears back.

What matters almost as much is what happens when FSU is able to leverage Clemson into similar situations.

Clemson’s offense takes advantage of your paranoia. Watson is one of the country’s most mobile quarterbacks, and opponents are forced to plan for that. But Watson throws the ball more frequently than most, too. Clemson’s run rate on standard downs is just 50.2 percent, 112th in FBS; the Tigers use quick passes to keep defenses flat-footed, and because of Watson’s accuracy and threatened mobility, it works. Artavis Scott is a constant possession threat, and Mike Williams and Ray-Ray McCloud have combined for a 59 percent success rate.

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Watson has completed 68 percent of his passes on first downs, and while he averages just 11.7 yards per completion on first-down passes, Clemson has been able to stay on schedule despite a run game that hasn’t clicked.

On special occasions, Swinney and co-coordinators Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott ask Watson to take over. He averaged 22.6 runs in last year’s three postseason games, but only 9.4 per game in 2016 (not including sacks), with 14 against Louisville. It’s like Clemson has a Big Games playbook and an Other Games playbook; in the former, his legs are a primary piece.

A trip to Tallahassee is always a special occasion. Clemson will employ its fully weaponized offense.

Running back Wayne Gallman is expected to play despite suffering a head injury against NC State. He had his best performance in Clemson’s biggest game — 16 carries for 110 yards against Louisville — and he will likely be a key piece.

The Noles have to get off the field on third down. FSU’s defense ranks 45th in Passing Downs S&P+ despite a strong pass rush, and Watson’s ability to avoid pressure and scramble for necessary yardage has been key.

The Tigers aren’t explosive — they have recorded just 11 gains of 30-plus yards, 110th in the country — but they move the chains and wear you down. Not surprisingly, their offense ranks better in the second quarter (first in Q2 S&P+) than in the first (18th) and better in the fourth (25th) than in the third (37th). FSU’s defense has been thinned out and could tire if the Noles are allowing Watson to convert in third-and-medium.

3. Neither team finishes drives well, but can FSU do it at all against this defense?

In a 37-35 loss to North Carolina, FSU actually created more scoring opportunities than the Tar Heels. But while they averaged 4.4 points per opportunity (exactly the national average), UNC averaged 5.4. FSU settled for field goals (and missed them all) on its first three chances, while the Heels scored five touchdowns in eight chances before bombing in the game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

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In FSU’s other loss, Louisville averaged 5.6 points per scoring opp. Granted, the bigger problem in that game was the number of scoring opps — Louisville had 10 to FSU’s five in a 63-20 romp — but it was indicative of an ongoing issue.

Even against a rugged schedule, FSU has been far more efficient than opponents. But the Seminoles are averaging just 4.5 points per scoring opportunity (80th) and allowing 5.1 (95th).

Clemson: 4.7 on offense (69th) but 3.1 on defense (third).

FSU can’t count on creating more chances than Clemson; the Noles must finish their chances. Show me the team that is settling for field goals, and I’ll show you the team that is probably losing.

Spread: Clemson -4
S&P+ projection: Clemson 33, FSU 25 (win probability: 68%)

FSU is seasoned and rested. Clemson’s had offensive line issues the Noles might be able to take advantage of, and the Tigers’ willingness to sacrifice the occasional big play for defensive efficiency could result in Cook roaming free.

But the game will come down to pass protection, third-and-medium, and closing out scoring chances. Can the Noles overcome deficiencies in these areas?