4th-and-goal from the 1 in the 1st quarter? Go for it. Every single time.

Monday’s mediocre bowl schedule produced three interesting games, with the St. Pete providing a lesson for all coaches.

I use advanced stats whenever possible, but I’m not a zealot. I understand that there is a time and place for most things — kicking 18-yard field goals, punting from the opponent’s 37, etc. — just as there’s a time and place for, say, staying on 12 in Blackjack.

If you’re up six or seven points midway through the fourth quarter, that field goal could put the game away. If you’re down two in the closing seconds, kick that damn ball.

Five minutes into a bowl in which you are a two-touchdown underdog? Good lord, go for it. Always.

Perhaps Miami (Ohio)’s 17-16 St. Petersburg Bowl loss to Mississippi State turned Redhawks head coach Chuck Martin into a convert. Miami booted a field goal from the 1 with 10:07 left in the first quarter. Per ESPN, the kick had no discernible impact on Miami’s win probability odds.

Some stats:

• From 2005-15, teams that elected to kick field goals on fourth-and-goal from the 1 in the first quarter made 97.1 percent of them. Expected points from those attempts: 2.91.
• Teams that went for these field goals had win-loss records of 14-20 (win percentage: 41.2 percent). In games that finished within one possession, they went 8-9 (47.1 percent).
• Teams that went for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1 in the first quarter scored touchdowns 67.1 percent of the time. Expected points: 4.67.
• Teams that went for these touchdowns had win-loss records of 133-77 (win percentage: 63.3 percent). In games that finished within one possession, they went 44-37 (54.3 percent).

We have no idea whether Miami would have converted on fourth-and-goal. Just because 67 percent of these touchdown attempts were successful doesn’t mean Miami’s would have been. But it wouldn’t have hurt the Redhawks’ odds of completing a near-upset. And even a failure would’ve given MSU awful field position.

As it stood, other kicks directly doomed the Redhawks. They went up 9-0 midway through the second quarter, but their PAT was blocked, which meant that they trailed by one in the final seconds ... when they had a last-second field goal blocked as well.

NC State might finish in the S&P+ top 25

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In 2016, NC State took on four teams currently ranked 13th or better in S&P+: Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and Miami. The Wolfpack went 0-4 in those games, suffering two narrow losses and losing two others by a combined 55.

That they went 7-2 against everybody else makes this a hard season to interpret. A 41-17 win over Vanderbilt in Monday's Independence Bowl further verified the Wolfpack's upside.

State held Vandy to just 3.9 yards per play, quarterback Ryan Finley went 19-for-30 for 235 yards and three scores, and when the Commodores cut a 28-3 deficit to 28-17 in the fourth quarter, State responded with a kick return touchdown.

Dave Doeren's Wolfpack entered the game 28th in S&P+ despite the 6-6 record, and their Monday performance will give them a chance at a top-25 S&P+ finish. That affirms the job Doeren has been doing; it also adds another twinge of regret for missed opportunities (an overtime loss to Clemson, a 24-20 loss to Florida State) and letdowns (a 33-30 loss to East Carolina and a 21-14 home loss to Boston College).

Regardless, Finley is a sophomore, four of his top five targets are scheduled to return, and a defense that allowed more than 30 points just twice all year will be extremely senior-heavy in 2017. State could be ready to improve even further in 2017.

Of course, the Wolfpack will still be in a division with Clemson, FSU, and Louisville. Pretty sure we have a lot of advocates for our pod scheduling proposal in Raleigh.

3,731 career rushing and receiving yards ... and counting

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It was also a successful but frustrating season in Nashville. Vandy beat Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and an excellent WKU; the Commodores also lost to South Carolina and Missouri and got beat up in Shreveport. Their No. 75 S&P+ ranking suggested their record was far closer to their ceiling than NC State's, but they still showed just enough hope to make 6-7 a bit disappointing.

When you've bowled only five times in 34 years, any season with a postseason trip is a good one. And like State, Vandy could be prepared to peak in 2017; quarterback Kyle Shurmur is a sophomore, the defense is junior-heavy, and Shurmur's top eight targets are scheduled to return.

That includes Ralph Webb. The junior rushed 21 times for 111 yards and a score against NC State, then announced he is returning for his senior season. He boasts 3,731 career rushing and receiving yards and 24 career touchdowns and is already VU's leader for career and single-season rushing yards. Now he'll come back to pad his lead.

It's easy to see Webb's decision from both angles. On one hand, his size (5'10, 202) makes him a ho-hum pro prospect, especially considering his speed hasn't translated into massive big-play capability (he was explosive in his 30-yard touchdown on Monday, however). Proving his explosiveness in 2017 can only help him. Plus, it's a pretty running back-heavy draft class already.

On the other hand, he's not going to suddenly be 6'1, 225, and a year from now he'll have another 225-275 carries (and hits) under his belt. That probably won't make him too much more attractive to pro scouts.

Regardless, this is good news for Vandy. We'll see how much an extra layer of experience adds to the Commodores' upside.

42 percent of Quick Lane Bowl snaps were explosive (in one direction or the other)

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The Quick Lane Bowl between Boston College and Maryland didn’t necessarily feature what you might call “good” football. Expectations were low for a game that featured the teams ranked 87th and 88th in S&P+ heading into the postseason.

You have to admit this much, though: The game was exciting. BC’s 36-30 win featured four touchdowns of 49 yards or longer, plus a fumble recovery score. And nearly half of the game’s plays — 42 percent — featured either a havoc play (tackle for loss, forced fumble, pass defensed) or a gain of 15-plus yards.

That’s an astounding number. Maryland ran 69 plays, gained at least 15 yards in nine of them, and allowed 14 tackles for loss, 11 passes defensed, and two forced fumbles. BC’s dominant defense lived up to its reputation ... even while allowing 30 points.

By comparison, BC’s offense was almost stable: 75 snaps, eight gains of 15-plus, nine tackles for loss, five passes defensed, two forced fumbles.

In the end, BC's early lead held up. The Eagles took a 16-0 lead early in the second quarter, then expanded the advantage to 36-13 early in the third. Two long Maryland touchdown passes (63 yards to Teldrick Morgan, 52 to Levern Jacobs) cut the lead to nine, however, and after one of the most stark bouts of goal line incompetence you'll ever see, the Terps cut the deficit to six with three minutes left.

With one last chance to win, however, Maryland quarterback Perry hills was harried into three incompletions and a fourth-down sack. A wild game had a relatively sane conclusion.