Your Trifecta: Oriakhi-Bowers-Pressey. Your winner: switzy227. Must've been all that insight he got during the Boston watch party...

So I didn't get to see one second of this game (other than the highlights, anyway). For this recap, then, I'll do what I've done before and ask some questions for the peanut gallery.

This was an absolutely crazy game to follow on my phone, by the way. Mizzou's up 6-0, down 25-12, and up 41-33, all in the first half? Silliness.

Mizzou 89, LSU 76

Question No. 1: Did Mizzou's defense stink for most of the game, or did it just really, really stink for seven minutes?

You just can't make it far in March if you're letting South Carolina and LSU take an absurd 54 3-pointers and make 41 percent of them. I know that a lot of the 3's against South Carolina were pretty well-guarded, but ... yuck. Whether you regard 3-point attempts allowed or 3-point percentage allowed as the best way to measure 3-point defense, Mizzou has begun to absolutely stink at this again.

LSU went on a 25-6 run from the 17:39 mark of the first half to the 10:31 mark. LSU's possession in that span: 3-pointer (3 pts), putback (2 pts), missed layup, 3-pointer (3 pts), free throws (1 pt), 3-pointer (3 pts), putback (2 pts), free throws (2 pts), 3-pointer (3 pts), 3-pointer (3 pts), 3-pointer (3 pts). During this run: 2.27 points per possession. Rest of game: 0.93. During this run: 6-for-7 on 3-pointers (86%). Rest of game: 6-for-21 (29%). Were the rest-of-game 3's more well-guarded than the seven during LSU's run, or did the Bayou Bengals just regress toward the mean?

Mizzou's possessions in that span, by the way? Turnover, missed layup, missed 3-pointer, missed 3-pointer, turnover, putback (2 pts), missed jumper, layup (2 pts), layup (2 pts), missed jumper, turnover. During this run: 0.55 points per possession. Rest of game: 1.54 points per possession.

Question No. 2: How much did LSU press?

LSU had won nine of its last 11 games heading into this one and had won four games (all at home, mind you) against Top 100 teams, including Missouri. They had done this while slowing their pace down from about 71 possessions per game to about 68. I was wondering if Johnny Jones was realizing his personnel wasn't quite capable of playing the style he wanted and scaled back the pressing (successfully) to fit the personnel. Since Mizzou won the BCI battle and committed only 11 turnovers at just a 65-possession pace, that either means that LSU didn't press much, or that Mizzou beat the press pretty calmly and easily. I'm assuming the former.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

The point totals of the last two games have been hilarious.

Laurence Bowers: 6 points vs. South Carolina, 23 points vs. LSU (+17)
Phil Pressey: 0 points vs. South Carolina, 15 points vs. LSU (+15)
Keion Bell: 24 points vs. South Carolina, 11 points vs. LSU (-13)
Jabari Brown: 23 points vs. South Carolina, 4 vs. LSU (-19)

The constant, of course? Alex Oriakhi, who scored 18 in each.

In Mizzou's wins versus "real" opponents, the Tigers have five guys pitching in double-digit Adj. GS totals (Oriakhi 17.1, Bowers 14.5, Brown 12.8, Pressey 12.0, Bell 11.8), with a sixth coming really close (Ross 9.8). In losses, the Tigers have just three (Bell 15.8, Pressey 12.6, Oriakhi 11.5). Mizzou has so many weapons; when a few of them show up at the same time, the Tigers win. When they don't, the Tigers don't. Defense is still the biggest issue for this team, but Mizzou has enough weapons to survive its occasionally bad defense for at least a while.

Question No. 3: How did the offense flow?

I know a lot of us are hammering away at the "The offense needs to flow from the inside, out" narrative right now, and I can't necessarily say I disagree. But I noticed that 10 of Oriakhi's points came on five offensive rebounds, meaning that he only scored nine points on 4-for-6 shooting when he wasn't pulling down someone else's miss. And I'm assuming Bowers didn't post up much either; he made two of three putback attempts himself, but considering that he took three 3-pointers, I'm assuming quite a few of his other 14 FG attempts were of longer distances.

At the same time, though, Mizzou only attempted 16 3-pointers, three fewer than their 19.0 average versus "real" opponents, and Bowers and Oriakhi did combine for three assists. So ... what's the story here?

Three Keys Revisited

From Friday's preview.

Limit Turnovers

We cannot turn the ball over against this team. They like to score in transition, and giveaways will allow them to do that. Good Phil along with another solid performance from our guards would go a long way in this one.

Turnovers: Missouri 11, LSU 10
BCI: Mizzou 1.82, LSU 1.60

You'd always prefer single-digit turnovers, but this isn't bad.

Contain Johnny O'Bryant III

What is it with big guys whose last names start with "O" having success against this team? (Too soon?) This man is an absolute beast, almost averaging a double double and putting up about 17 points a game. If Oriakhi can handle him, LSU loses their most valuable piece on offense.

O'Bryant: 36 minutes, 18 points (7-14 FG), 8 rebounds (5 offensive), 0 blocks, 3 turnovers
Oriakhi: 31 minutes, 18 points (9-11 FG), 10 rebounds (5 offensive), 4 blocks, 2 turnovers

O'Bryant did pretty well, but Oriakhi did better.

DEFENSE

An awful defensive showing in the first half against South Carolina kept them in the game, and a pretty great defensive showing in the second half took them right back out of it. Mizzou has proven they can and will score, especially at home. It's time we show some consistency on defense too. Three combined halves of bad defense (and one OT period) against Kentucky and South Carolina vs. three combined halves of good defense against Florida and South Carolina are a good enough sample for me to say that this team will go as far as the defense takes them.

LSU: 1.16 points per possession.

After three games of stellar to great defense, Mizzou has now allowed 1.19, 1.12 and 1.16 points per possession in their last three games. It hasn't hurt them much, at least in the last week, because the Tigers' offense was ridiculous: 1.48 PPP versus South Carolina, 1.36 versus LSU. But it will hurt them soon if it doesn't start to trend back in the other direction.

Summary

Question No. 4: After Mizzou's performance (on both sides of the court) versus an athletic, aggressive team like LSU, are you more or less confident about Mizzou handling Arkansas tomorrow night at Mizzou Arena?

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.

So it appears Bailey Erwin has quit the Mizzou Softball team

Notes:

• For this week, I compared my bracket to that of the Bracket Matrix, a wonderful amalgamation of bracketologists' picks. So when you see the "overrated" and "underrated" sections below, know that I'm basing those opinions off of where I disagree with the Matrix.
• You should probably never disagree with the Matrix.
• Bracketing the 5-12-4-13 line was particularly weird this time, so I ended up having to do what I hate: potentially pairing two conference mates in the Round of 32. Sorry, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. I don't like it either.
• And yes, with Kansas now a 1 and Missouri still an 8, I tried to pair them up, but Mizzou would have ended up in Florida's region, which is a no-no. So Mizzou gets Colorado again.
• The sites for the rounds of 64 and 32 are interesting this year. Michigan and Michigan State could both end up in Auburn Hills, while Lexington could host two teams that aren't liked very much by Kentucky fans: Louisville and Duke.
• The SEC may not be a great conference, but it is a crazy one. I've been keeping track of my rankings each week since the first Rock-M-Tology three weeks ago. Since February 11, Tennessee has gone from 100th to 59th, Arkansas from 87th to 63rd, and LSU from 116th to 92nd. These are among the four biggest rises for current Top 100 teams (the other one: Evansville, from 128th to 96th). On the flipside, Ole Miss (36th to 58th) and Kentucky (33rd to 53rd) are among the biggest tumbles.
• The SEC still has a ton riding on the next couple of weeks, then. The conference could end up with anywhere between two and five teams, six if Arkansas gets smoking hot. Three seems most likely, however.
• Other three-week tumbles: Illinois State (74th to 103rd), Cincinnati (21st to 41st), Baylor (46th to 61st) and Butler (15th to 29th).

Who's overrated?

Wisconsin (20-9) - It's hard to figure out what the hell to do with a team capable of winning at Indiana, destroying Ohio State (by 22 in Madison) and losing (by 13) to Purdue at home. The Badgers are 11-5 in a tough conference and a firm No. 4 seed in the mocks, but I had them right on the 6-7 border. That's probably unfair, especially considering their No. 8 Pomeroy ranking, but their non-conference RPI was poor (they played four good teams and went 0-4 with an average loss of 11 points), and their 4.5 road-neutral wins (I count road wins as 1, neutral as 0.5) are among the lowest among current tourney teams.

(Fine, I'll probably have them higher next week.)

Notre Dame (22-7) - Lose to St. Joseph's, beat Louisville. Lost to Providence and St. John's, beat Pittsburgh on the road. Pomeroy's numbers are not a fan of the Irish, and it's not hard to see why -- three iffy losses and two overtime games versus DePaul -- but the big wins are pretty damn big. The Matrix has them a 7, but I have them a 10.

Baylor (16-12) - According to the Matrix, Baylor is one of the first four teams out. I have them seventh out, just ahead of Iowa and Arkansas. The Bears' second-best win is over Kentucky (best: Oklahoma State), and they have lost seven of 10, losing to every decent-to-good team they've played in that stretch. It's a stretch to say they've got a chance at the moment. But if they hadn't botched the end of the Kansas State game...

(I could have just as easily put Villanova here. I have them on the outside looking in, while the Matrix has them a 12.)

Who's underrated?

VCU (23-6) - They're 17th in Pomeroy's rankings and 31st in the RPI; that alone suggests they should be somewhere around a 6-seed, not the 8 they're getting in the Matrix. They have just one iffy loss (at Richmond in overtime), though obviously their resume is hurt by a marquee win -- their best wins according to Pomeroy rank: No. 37 Memphis, No. 40 Belmont, No. 60 Butler. Still, they're 11-3 in a good conference. They certainly have an opportunity to finish strong, first in a revenge attempt versus Richmond on Wednesday, then at Temple on Sunday.

New Mexico (25-4) - The Lobos are No. 2 in RPI, are 10-3 away from home (7-3 on the road, 3-0 neutral), are 12-2 in an excellent Mountain West, and took out UConn (which would have been in the tourney without the APR ban) in non-conference for resume effect. I initially had them as an easy 2-seed, but the Matrix has them as the third No. 3. Not a huge difference, obviously, but I think they might be getting hurt by Gonzaga being on the No. 1 line. "Well we can't have two of them in the top eight..."

N.C. State (21-8) - As is customary, the most underrated teams on my list are mid-majors -- VCU, Creighton, New Mexico, Memphis, San Diego State -- but I'll give a quick shout-out to N.C. State, which should probably be creeping toward a 6-seed instead of the 8 they currently have in the Matrix. Of course, they can only get so much of a shoutout considering they lost to Wake Forest and have lost four straight to Top 90 teams. They can help themselves by beating a team with a pulse in the ACC Tournament. (They have to wait until then because they finish with Wake Forest and Florida State.)

Rising

We talked about SEC teams rising and falling pretty dramatically over the past month. Here are the teams who have risen notably in the last week.

UCLA (22-7) - The Bruins dodged a bullet with an overtime win (at home) over Arizona State, then pulled off a lovely resume-maker with a win over Arizona. Beat the Washington schools on the road this week, and they could be in line for a 6-seed heading into the Pac-12 tourney.

Virginia (20-9) - The Cavs are now 18th in Pomeroy's rankings, and they did themselves a major favor by beating Duke on Thursday. It would have been an even bigger favor, however, had they not laid an egg and lost at Boston College on Sunday. They went from out, to in, to right on the borderline.

Boise State (18-8) - This is another "who the hell knows?" team, but the Broncos have helped themselves out tremendously of late. They beat Colorado State by 13 on Saturday after pasting Nevada on Wednesday. Losses to Nevada (in January) and Utah (in December) still make their resume a little iffy, but at 20-8, 8-6 in a good league, 44th in RPI and 52nd in Pomeroy, I think they might get in if the selection show were today.

Falling

Charlotte (18-10) - The 49ers fooled people into thinking they might be a tourney team after a win at Butler. That they followed that win up with losses by double-digits to St. Louis and Temple didn't finish them off ... but 21-point losses to Dayton and St. Bonaventure did. They're sinking like a stone.

Indiana State (16-13) - My numbers kind of liked ISU as a bubble team a couple of weeks ago. Then they lost to Drake and Evansville after barely beating Iona. So never mind on that one.

Wichita State (24-7) - Gregg Marshall's Shockers are still pretty safe, but it's probably not a good idea to head into Championship Week with a home loss to Evansville and a 12-point loss at Creighton.

Last Few In

Names in italics would be among the last in without their conference's automatic bid.

Wichita State (24-7)
Cincinnati (20-9)
Middle Tennessee (27-4)
Belmont (22-6)
California (20-9)
Boise State (18-8)
La Salle (20-7)
Temple (21-8)
Virginia (20-9)
Louisiana Tech (25-3)
Akron (22-6)
Iowa State (19-10)
Stephen F. Austin (20-3)
Kentucky (20-9)
Bucknell (24-5)
Southern Miss (20-7)

First Few Out

Villanova (17-12)
Maryland (20-9)
Ole Miss (21-8)
Tennessee (17-11)
UMass (18-9)
Baylor (16-12)
Iowa (18-11)
Arkansas (18-11)

By Conference

7 - Big East
5 - Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 12, Mountain West, Pac-12
3 - SEC
2 - Conference USA, Missouri Valley, West Coast

The Bracket

FIRST FOUR (in Dayton)

Virginia (20-9) vs. Southern Miss (20-7)
Iowa State (19-10) vs. Kentucky (20-9)

Northeastern (19-11) vs. Southern (18-9)
N.C. Central (17-8) vs. Gardner-Webb (17-11)

EAST REGIONAL (in Washington, DC)

1 Duke (25-4) vs. 16 Robert Morris (22-9)
8 Creighton (24-7) vs. 9 Illinois (20-9)
in Lexington

5 VCU (23-6) vs. 12 Louisiana Tech (25-3)
4 Kansas State (23-5) vs. 13 Bucknell (24-5)
in Kansas City

6 Colorado State (20-7) vs. 11 Belmont (22-6)
3 Michigan State (21-7) vs. 14 Stony Brook (22-6)
in Auburn Hills

7 UCLA (22-7) vs. 10 St. Mary's (25-5)
2 Louisville (24-5) vs. 15 Harvard (16-9)
in Lexington

WEST REGIONAL (in Los Angeles)

1 Gonzaga (28-2) vs. 16 Pacific (15-12)
8 Missouri (21-8) vs. 9 Colorado (19-9)
in San Jose

5 St. Louis (23-5) vs. 12 Virginia / Southern Miss
4 Ohio State (21-7) vs. 13 Akron (22-5)
in Dayton

6 Pittsburgh (23-7) vs. 11 California (20-9)
3 New Mexico (25-4) vs. 14 South Dakota State (19-9)
in Salt Lake City

7 Wisconsin (20-9) vs. 10 Cincinnati (20-9)
2 Miami (23-5) vs. 15 Weber State (20-5)
in Austin

MIDWEST REGIONAL (in Indianapolis)

1 Indiana (25-4) vs. 16 Northeastern / Southern
8 North Carolina (20-8) vs. 9 Oklahoma (19-9)
in Dayton

5 Oklahoma State (22-6) vs. 12 La Salle (20-7)
4 Syracuse (22-7) vs. 13 Iowa State / Kentucky
in Philadelphia

6 Memphis (25-4) vs. 11 Boise State (18-8)
3 Arizona (23-6) vs. 14 Valparaiso (23-7)
in Salt Lake City

7 N.C. State (21-8) vs. 10 Wichita State (24-7)
2 Georgetown (23-4) vs. 15 Loyola-Maryland (21-10)
in Philadelphia

SOUTH REGIONAL (in Arlington)

1 Kansas (25-4) vs. 16 N.C. Central / Gardner-Webb
8 San Diego State (18-8) vs. 9 Oregon (23-6)
in Kansas City

5 UNLV (21-7) vs. 12 Temple (21-8)
4 Marquette (21-7) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (20-3)
in San Jose

6 Minnesota (20-9) vs. 11 Middle Tennessee (27-4)
3 Florida (23-5) vs. 14 Davidson (22-7)
in Austin

7 Butler (21-7) vs. 10 Notre Dame (22-7)
2 Michigan (23-5) vs. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (19-10)
in Auburn Hills

My At-First-Glance Final Four

Louisville-Gonzaga-Georgetown-Michigan

Second glance: Duke-Ohio State-Indiana-Florida

Missouri's inevitable path to destiny™ (ahem)

Colorado-Gonzaga-Ohio State-Miami-Louisville-Georgetown. Not bad.

So my wife and I went on our first date 10 years ago today. Just thought I'd share. That's pretty awesome, and we're apparently pretty old.

Mizzou Basketball Links

• Tonight ... Should Be Interesting
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Hosts Arkansas on Senior Night
  The Trib: Anderson expecting chilly welcome at MU
  The Trib (Steve Walentik): Tigers meet the media
  The Missourian: Missouri braces for unique night
  KC Star: Plenty of drama surrounds MU-Arkansas matchup
  Post-Dispatch: Anderson anticipating mixed response at Mizzou Arena
  Post-Dispatch: Anderson trumpets Mizzou tenure as he returns
  PowerMizzou: PMTV-HD: Hoops Media Day
• *NANANANANANA CAN'T HEAR YOU*
  Post-Dispatch (Bryan Burwell): Is Mizzou starting to peak?
• AO
  MUtigers.com: Oriakhi Named SEC Player of the Week
  KC Star: MU's Oriakhi named SEC player of the week
  Post-Dispatch: Alex Oriakhi named SEC player of week
• JANK
  The Missourian: 'Home' hard for Missouri's Stefan Jankovic to define

Other Basketball Links

• I Disagree With Sooooooooo Much Of This
  SI.com: The Ultimate College Basketball Broadcaster Draft

Mizzou Football Links

• 2014 Recruiting
  PowerMizzou: Grant Jones joins the family
  PowerMizzou: Daily Recruiting Blast: March 4
  PowerMizzou: [Illinois TE Ian] Bunting has Mizzou ties
• Oy
  The Trib (Dave Matter): Tigers miss on star recruit? Oops, my bad
• Oh Hello There, Spring Football (By The Way, Mizzou Has An Incumbent Starting Quarterback, And His Name Is James Franklin)
  PowerMizzou: Spring Preview: Quarterback

EXPANSIONAPALOOZA™ 2013

• Big East
  Frank the Tank: Revenge of the Ballers: Why Football Isn't Everything in Conference Realignment

Mizzou Diamond Sports Links

• Home Opener ... For Real This Time
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Open Home Slate With Eastern Michigan
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Baseball vs. EMU Tuesday Moved to 4 p.m.
  SimmonsField.com: MIZZOU MATCHUP: Eastern Michigan Eagles
  The Missourian: Missouri looking for answers at home
• Erwin
  The Trib: Pitcher Erwin leaves softball team
  The Missourian: Sophomore pitcher Erwin decides to transfer from Missouri softball team
  KBIA Sports: Mizzou Pitcher Bailey Erwin Transfers

Other Mizzou Links

• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  MUtigers.com: Liz Smith Named to Community Service Team

Other

• I Suck At Self-Promotion, But Here You Go
  Solid Verbal: Bill Connelly's Numb3rs (3/4)
• Speaking Of Nerds ... Some Sloan Links
  SSAC.com: Final Thoughts from the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
  Grantland (Katie Baker): Sports analytics and the MIT Sloan Conference
  Grantland: Sloan Podcast and Video Extravaganza
  Yahoo! Sports (Dan Devine): Needles, haystacks and failures to communicate
  Yahoo! Sports (Dan Devine): Wrapping up Sloan 2013
  SB Nation (Paul Flannery): Stats, storytelling and Sloan: How to make advanced stats in basketball a more engaging conversation

First, let's talk about Mike Anderson.

If you have any serious, burning resentment for Mike Anderson, you might need to seek professional help. Yes, he left. Coaches leave. In this regard, Missouri has been incredibly lucky in one sense (Mizzou didn't lose a coach to another school for more than 50 years), and unlucky in another (aside from Norm Stewart and brief times with Quin Snyder and Gary Pinkel, nobody wanted Missouri coaches).

Yes, he flirted with other schools before leaving. Welcome to Jimmy Sexton's world.

Yes, he said he wanted to "retire at Mizzou." People say things. And people say things they might change their minds about soon after saying them. Maybe it was a bold-faced lie. Maybe it was simply him saying he was content staying at Missouri forever (if other schools didn't come calling, or if he didn't get fired at some point).

Yes, I guess his departure was handled poorly, or at least with unfortunate timing. Word hit the Internet before he could get back to Columbia to tell his team. He also came back. He didn't tell his team via forwarded text. He came back for his former players' graduation last year.

(Yes, he also went to great lengths to avoid the media on his way into, and out of, town. I'm sorry, but I just found the thought of Eric Blumberg trailing Anderson's car funny. I'd have avoided them too.)

Yes, Anderson failed to sign anybody in the 2011 recruiting class, particularly one mister Otto Porter. And yes, he failed to sign anybody in what was a strangely loaded, top-heavy 2011 recruiting class in the state of Missouri -- Porter, Brad Beal, B.J. Young. He also left Frank Haith with Marcus Denmon, Phil Pressey, Kim English, Ricardo Ratliffe and Mike Dixon.

(Yes, he also potentially handled the first set of Dixon allegations poorly. I have no comeback for this one.)

Mike Anderson also inherited a program in relative shambles, with very few scholarships to give and a fanbase that had been completely beaten down over the previous three seasons. Here's the roster he inherited heading into 2007-08: Marshall Brown, Leo Lyons, Kalen Grimes, Matt Lawrence and Jason Horton. That's basically it. He honored commitments from Vaidatos Volkus and Keon Lawrence. He filled in immediate gaps with players he was recruiting at UAB -- Stefhon Hannah, Darryl Butterfield, some no-offense guard named J.T. Tiller. He had one scholarship to give in his first full year of recruiting (it went to Justin Safford). He was forced to deal with Athenagate and Grimes' dismissal. And he still improved the squad from 160th in Pomeroy's rankings in 2006, to 59th in 2007, to 44th (despite Athenagate) in 2008. And when he actually got a full class of recruits and transfers at his disposal (along with a finally healthy transfer by the name of Demarre Carroll), his team won the Big 12 tournament, made the Elite Eight, won 31 games, and brought back the pride Missouri Basketball had lost years earlier. The winter and early spring of 2009 were among my favorite months as a Missouri fan.

Missouri has now been to four straight NCAA Tournaments. At this point, the Tigers are basically locks to make it five straight this year. That will tie for the longest streak ever at Mizzou (1986-90, 1999-03). That wouldn't have happened without the dogged work of Mike Anderson. Long-term, as we get more separation from his departure, I'm pretty sure fans will regard him with a more pleasant tone. But honestly? Two years is long enough. If you're still angry, truly angry, at him, despite the time that has passed, and despite the simple fact that, since his departure, Missouri has improved and Arkansas really has not, then I don't know what to tell you. Sports might not be for you. THAT SAID...

...boo him like crazy tonight, not because of any deep-seated hostility, but because it's fun. At their best, sports allow you to act in ways that you wouldn't be allowed to act in the real world. (And at their worst, sports give people implicit permission to go way, way too far with that.) Perhaps at first, Mizzou fans really were angry at Ryan Robertson for dissing the home-state Tigers in favor of Kansas, but after four years of booing him every time he touched the ball at the Hearnes Center, it just became fun to do so. You couldn't do it without smiling. That is the kind of hate Mike Anderson should see tonight. The "Suitcase Mike" stuff? Bring it on.

It's like Ezekiel Elliott picking Ohio State, then saying he'll "always be a Tiger." No, Zeke, you won't. I wish no harm upon you, and for all I care, you can go ahead and have a successful, long NFL career, but you don't get to be a Tiger. You picked Ohio State. For Mike Anderson, I hold no grudge, and I hold crazy respect for the job he did in both bringing wins to Mizzou Arena and setting the table for what looks like, after two years, a potentially more successful run by his successor. But if you ditch us, we get to boo you when you come back. It's the way it's supposed to work.

Arkansas Razorbacks Since Last Time (3-2)

It's always weird previewing a team with a really short turnaround, so I'll just say this: Since the first time I previewed Mizzou-Arkansas, Arkansas has rebounded well, played good defense, and lost any and all sense of reliability on the offensive end. As we'll see below, the team's offensive leaders have regressed to a point, while others are still in the process of emerging. Depth has saved Mike Anderson's team, but the Hogs have some serious work to do to somehow scrape into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Ken Pomeroy Stats

Where the Hogs are weakest

From an advanced stats perspective, this is basically the same team we saw a short while ago. They still can't really shoot (73rd in 2PT% but 304th in 3PT% and 228th in FT%). They still foul too much, especially on the road. They still don't get many calls (knock on wood) away from home. They still don't rebound that well (164th in OR%, 247th in DR%), though they are indeed improving in that regard. They are still inexperienced (274th in Experience), and they are still rather small (206th in Effective Height).

Where they are best

The Hogs also still turn you over like crazy (12th in Def. TO%, 23rd in Steal%) and prevent you from taking the ball from them (11th in Off. TO%, fifth in Steal%). They still use their bench at a downright silly rate (fifth in Bench Minutes). And they are still all sorts of active on defense (23rd in Steal%, 24th in Block%). They are still Mike Anderson's team.

Arkansas Since Last Time

• Wins (Team Rank is from KenPom.com)
  No. 22 Missouri (73-71)
  No. 33 Kentucky (73-60)
  No. 104 Georgia (62-60)
• Losses
  at No. 1 Florida (54-71)
  at No. 99 LSU (60-65)

Three home wins, two road losses, Rinse, repeat. (That said, of course, the Hogs barely beat Georgia at home and almost knocked off LSU on the road, so the "always great at home, always terrible away" thing doesn't really work.)

Arkansas Player Stats Since Last Time

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

• Highest Usage%: Powell (35%), Bell (30%), Young (27%)
• Highest Floor%: Clarke (58%), Haydar (37%), Madden (37%)
• Highest %Pass: Madden (70%), Gulley (63%), Wade (62%)
• Highest %Shoot: Bell (100%), Mickelson (59%), Powell (52%)
• Highest %Fouled: Powell (21%), Scott (17%), Clarke (15%)
• Highest %T/O: Mickelson (14%), Young (11%), Powell (9%)

The balance of power has taken a strange shift in recent weeks. Here are the top five Hogs in terms of AdjGS/game the first time I previewed this team: Powell (14.8), Young (14.7), Clarke (7.5), Mickelson (7.1), Wade (6.2). Powell's production has stayed reasonably similar, but seemingly everybody else has either improved or regressed dramatically. Young completely misplaced his game right around the time he was drawing the second of the two semi-bogus three-point plays at the end of the Missouri game. In the four previous games, he is averaging seven points, shooting 37% on 2-pointers and 0-for-12 on 3-pointers. But he isn't the only one to see a crazy shift.

Clarke: +13.7 Adj. PPG
Bell: +6.0 Adj. PPG
Madden: -2.5 Adj. PPG
Powell: -3.7 Adj. PPG
Scott: -4.4 Adj. PPG
Mickelson: -5.9 Adj. PPG
Young: -13.2 Adj. PPG

Now, momentum shifts occur over the course of the season. We should know that as well as anybody (cough Keion Bell, cough Laurence Bowers). But this is rather absurd. Bell, for instance, came out of absolute nowhere to score 17 points against Georgia (in the three games since, he has scored 17 points; in the 11 games before that one, he had scored nine).

For all we know, Young will find his groove again, and the offense will flow just fine. But it hasn't recently. Clarke has been amazing, but he's not a "the offense runs through him" guy (as evidenced by his 15% Usage Rate). Arkansas needs Powell and Young to play well to have a chance tonight. Not saying it won't happen -- it would be just Missouri's luck -- but all we know for sure is that it hasn't recently.

Keys to the Game

1. The Whistles. Always. This is a game involving a Mike Anderson team.
   
   
2. Mizzou Arena. Mizzou Arena is funny. When it is 100% into a game, which only happens once or twice a year, it has the power to cow both the visiting team and the home team. It seemed frequent in those old Kansas games that, when the stakes were high (primarily 2009 and 2012), both teams played a bit freaked out at first; and it happened again to an extent against Florida a couple of weeks ago. But that building can also carry the home team down the stretch. It is an amazing arena to behold in the final minutes of a rivalry game. And with the Anderson Effect, combined with Senior Night, I expect it at its best tonight. If Arkansas can overcome potential runs, keep the game close at the end, and then win in that environment, power to the Hogs.
   
   
3. Tag Team. I could have gone with Phil Pressey here, and I could have gone with BCI! BCI! (this is a Mike Anderson game after all). Instead, though, I'm going with this. Over his last three games, Alex Oriakhi has averaged 17.3 points per game (on 72% shooting from the field) and 9.3 rebounds (4.3 on offense). And on Saturday, Laurence Bowers officially looked like Lawrence Bowers again, scoring 23 points and grabbing 10 boards. The battle between Bowers-Oriakhi and Clarke-Powell will likely decide the game. Lord knows Flipadelphia will play a role, as will plenty of other factors (ball-handling, rebounding, etc.). But this battle is absolutely enormous.
   

Prediction

Pomeroy projects an 81-70 Missouri win. Honestly, my gut says it won't be that close. It says Mizzou makes a couple of runs, maintains its recent, strong level of play, and Mizzou runs away, 85-65. That said ... strange things happen in rivalry games, and this has all the makings of a hell of a rivalry. Home court advantage can turn into a disadvantage against a defiant, fiery road team, and the dynamics of this game, with Anderson's return, Senior Night, etc., could be very interesting if Arkansas makes an early run of its own or keeps things close. (And lord knows that we are familiar with the "Anderson team gets dominated on the road, then makes a crazy late run to make things interesting" effect.) I expect a Missouri win tonight, but ... I also know that expecting any result of any kind might be pretty foolish. You never know.

First things first: Apologies to Fullback U. Rally Baby mocked him relentlessly for an hour straight yesterday at Shakespeares.

(And thanks to BST for throwing the game thread together. Actually having to leave the house totally threw me off.)

Mizzou Basketball Links

Okay, so ... that was fun, huh?

• Mizzou >>>>>>>>>> Arkansas
  MUtigers.com: Bowers Leads Mizzou to 93-63 Senior Night Celebration
  MUtigers.com: Missouri Postgame Notes vs. Arkansas
  MUtigers.com: Postgame Quotes
  The Trib: Bowers has fitting sendoff, but Tigers could be far from done
  The Missourian: Haith animated in Missouri's victory over Arkansas
  The Missourian: Mike Anderson returns to Missouri to play the team he left
  KC Star: Fans delight as Missouri routs ex-coach Anderson and Arkansas 93-63
  KC Star: Hogs well cast for role of MU's bitter rival
  Post-Dispatch: Mizzou crushes Arkansas
  Post-Dispatch (Joe Strauss): One last bridge burns in Columbia
  PowerMizzou: Game at a Glance
  PowerMizzou: PHOTOS: The Baseline View
  PowerMizzou: PMTV-HD: Arkansas Post-Game
  The Maneater: Missouri routes Arkansas 93-63 in Mike Anderson's return
  KBIA Sports: Bowers, Mizzou welcome back Mike Anderson with a 93-63 win over Arkansas
  The Dagger: Mike Anderson receives hostile welcome in his return to Missouri
• Senior Night
  The Trib: Bowers earns admiration for showing class through good times and bad
  The Missourian: Bowers recognizes Dixon in Missouri's senior night celebration
  The Missourian: STORIFY: Fans react to Laurence Bowers' recognition of Michael Dixon, Jr.
  KC Star: Three seniors play last game at Mizzou Arena
  PowerMizzou: Short but Sweet
  PowerMizzou: PMTV-HD: Senior Night Ceremony
  PowerMizzou: PMTV-HD: Senior Speeches
  YouTube: Laurence Bowers says goodbye to Mizzou Arena
• SEC Tournament
  MUtigers.com: Limited SEC Tournament Tickets Made Available to Mizzou Fans

Mizzou Football Links

• Spring Ball
  PowerMizzou: Spring Preview: Running back
• 2014 Recruiting
  PowerMizzou: Daily Recruiting Blast: March 5
  PowerMizzou: Top Two for [CO OL Dalton] Risner
  PowerMizzou: Mizzou Gives [GA TE Cole] Cook His First SEC Offer

Other Football Links

• Oh, Now This Is Awesome...
  Sports-Reference.com: Passing, Rushing, and Receiving Stats Back to 1977

Mizzou Diamond Sports Links

• Try, Try Again
  MUtigers.com: Baseball Tuesday Postponed; Doubleheader on Tap Wednesday
  SimmonsField.com: Home Opener Rescheduled. Again.
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: Home Opener Finally? Brock Bond Finally?
• Polls
  MUtigers.com: Softball Stays Strong in National Rankings

Other Mizzou Links

• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Prepare for SEC Tournament
  MUtigers.com: Eye, Kulas and Doty Earn SEC Recognition
  The Trib: Eye named SEC's co-sixth player of the year
  KBIA Sports: Four Mizzou players recognized by SEC for 2013 teams
• Mizzou Gymnastics
  The Missourian: Missouri gymnasts compete against each other for floor lineup spot
• TSF
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Parking Changes
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Goals & How You Can Help
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): What is Going for Gold
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Thank you to all TSF Supporters

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Timing is everything.

The University of Massachusetts announced on April 20, 2011, that its football team would move up to FBS. At that point, the Minutemen were just three seasons removed from a CAA conference title and four seasons removed from a trip to the FCS national title game. If it had joined the MAC in 2006, the breaking-in period may have gone reasonably well. UMass ranked 59th in the 2006 Sagarin rankings, ahead of every MAC school but Central Michigan. In 2007, they ranked 77th, ahead of everybody (unless I missed someone).

By 2011, however, the program had lost a little bit of steam. Head coach Don Brown left Amherst to become Ralph Friedgen's defensive coordinator at Maryland, and Kevin Morris went just 5-6 in 2009 and 6-5 in 2010. The Minutemen went 5-6 again in 2011, and Morris was replaced by former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Charley Molnar. Insert a ton of injuries, put onto the field one of the most ridiculously young teams ever, and you have just about the worst FBS debut season imaginable.

Timing really hasn't been UMass' thing -- one could argue that the program should have made the FBS move 50 years ago -- but wow, was the timing bad in 2012. What seemed at one time to be a logical, well-timed decision quickly turned into a nightmare. It was so bad that, to some faculty, UMass' stay at the FBS level should have been cut very, very short.

2. It's not a good sign when the response to your first FBS season is a vote to leave FBS.

UMass Faculty Senate motion to leave FBS falls a vote short.

Back in December the Faculty Senate at Massachusetts voiced its concern over the increase of money the school was spending on its football program following a move from the FCS level to the FBS level. On Thursday, the Faculty Senate voted on a motion to have UMass football leave the FBS level and that motion failed by one vote.

The motion was beaten by a 19-18 vote with one abstention. Absent from the vote was professor Max Page. He had been the most vocal critic of the school's move to the FBS but was out of the country on Thursday and could not vote.

"Whatever else might be said of the 2011 decision to move to the next level, it was never presented as a one-year experiment," said chancellor Kumble Subbaswamy at Thursday's meeting. "It simply couldn't be. Like many decisions I inherited, it is my job to ensure the program's success in a responsible manner. That's what I intend to do. I have been consistent in this position. As with any major campus initiative we will carefully monitor the progress and the financial commitments associated with the process to ensure that the best interests of the university as a whole are always at the forefront."

Or, to put it another way, UMass football edges faculty for second FBS victory.

(Matt Sussman is awesome, by the way.)

2012 Schedule & Results

3. This team never had a chance in 2012.

Even with no injuries, this team wasn't going to be very good in its first FBS season. The team was too young, there was not enough FBS-level talent (even with the addition of some late senior transfers), and the new coaching staff was attempting to get its footing. But then quarterback Kellen Pagel was lost for the season to concussion-related issues (he is now on the UMass baseball roster, not the football roster), leaving two freshmen in his place. And the offensive line dealt with injuries and extreme youth. And the secondary dealt with xtreme-with-an-x youth. And after losing the top five 2011 targets from the receiving corps, almost nobody stepped up when given opportunities to make a mark. (The quarterback issues didn't help.) And a team that probably wasn't good enough to rank better than about 105th or 110th in the F/+ rankings instead became one of the two or three worst teams in the country.

If you're looking for a ceiling, however, look toward one specific game.

4. UMass almost beat Ohio.

Against an undefeated Ohio squad that had beaten Penn State about a month earlier, in front of a paltry 8,321 fans at Gillette Stadium, UMass almost pulled off a miracle.

The Minutemen gained 511 yards on a faltering Ohio defense, threw for 373 yards, moved the chains 28 times, took a 27-20 lead into the fourth quarter, faltered, rallied, and got to the Ohio 45-yard line with about 30 seconds left. But four straight incompletions ended an upset bid, and Ohio held on, 37-34. Quarterback Mike Wegzyn completed 27 of 51 passes for 373 yards and four scores, but it wasn't enough. We briefly got a glimpse of the potential of UMass' pistol attack, but that was just about the last time we would see potential in 2012.

Offense

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

5. Continuity would be a start.

Two freshmen got time at quarterback, four freshmen got opportunities at receiver, and four freshmen started at least one game on the line. The lineup we saw was not what we were supposed to see, but injuries were devastating to the UMass charge in 2012.

Some improved injury luck might allow the Minutemen to take advantage of what could be a lovely base of experience. This will be the case in 2014 more than 2013, probably, but this fall we'll still see a couple of interesting quarterbacks getting longer looks (both Mike Wegzyn and A.J. Doyle showcased at least a little bit of running ability and never had a chance to prove themselves as passers with this line and this receiving corps). We'll also see a potentially interesting corps of running backs, one that should include star freshman Lorenzo Woodley. The Minutemen almost certainly aren't going to win many games in 2013, but continuity and further experience could pay off dramatically in coming seasons.

Running Back

Receiving Corps

Offensive Line

6. The offensive line was crazy-young last year.

This time last year, UMass boasted three two-year starters on the line, which looked like a potential strength for an offense in need of one. The unit was still pretty awful, however (especially in run blocking), in part because of injuries. Nine players started at least one game, including four freshmen/redshirt freshmen. The pass protection was not horrible, but UMass was the worst in the country at opening holes on standard downs.

And now the Minutemen must replace their three most experienced starters.

Big Anthony Dima returns to anchor what will still be one of the younger lines in college football. UMass returns 31 career starts, 11 of which came from players who are now sophomores. This isn't a recipe for improvement, but with a load of sophomores and a new offensive line coach (former Cincinnati assistant Dave Johnson), things certainly look pretty good for 2014 and beyond. That's something.

Defense

Defensive Line

Linebackers

Secondary

7. The secondary was crazy-young last year.

Few FBS units had to be shuffled around more than UMass' secondary. Thanks to injuries and attrition, 10 different Minutemen got the chance to record at least 10.0 tackles, only three of the 10 played in all 12 games, and by the end of the season, almost the entire two-deep (six of eight spots) consisted of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Yikes.

Last year's shuffling, however, could turn into this year's strength. In sophomore corners Randall Jette, Troy Dudley-Giles and D'Metrius Williams, UMass has a trio that combined for two picks, 14 passes broken up, and 2.5 tackles for loss. Throw in four experienced safeties, and you've got a recipe for improvement, especially considering the front seven returns four players who made at least 4.0 tackles for loss last fall. There is almost literally nowhere to go but up for this defense, but overall the UMass D might be the first of the two major units to actually resemble an FBS unit.

Special Teams

8. Special teams was, and should again be, a relative strength.

UMass' special teams unit was far from perfect -- iffy returns, few touchbacks on kickoffs, iffy punting -- but UMass made 10 of 12 field goals under 40 yards and covered kickoffs well. And in the absence of other strengths, this is something on which you can hang your hat.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

9. Whatever UMass might become, it's still a year away from starting to become it.

The schedule features just four teams projected 100th or worse in the F/+ projections, and only two projected worse than Miami (Ohio) at No. 106. Considering 100th-105th is just about the best UMass can hope for with its continued youth, that suggests that the Minutemen are not going to win many games this fall.

That said, last year's ridiculously young team is still going to be young in 2013; if it sticks together, UMass will have one of the most experienced teams in the MAC come 2014-15. In players like Mike Wegzyn, Lorenzo Woodley, a host of young receivers and offensive linemen, and a defense that will feature perhaps as few as 6-7 seniors on its two-deep, there is a core around which Charley Molnar can build.

We don't know about the overall level of talent yet, and returns aren't amazingly promising, but in a year or two we might find that things are improving swiftly in Amherst.

10. Victor Cruz is really good.

Just saying. If UMass can produce him, it can produce a few more like him at some point.

(I really wanted to end this on a positive note.)

Follow @SBNationCFBFollow @SBNRecruiting

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• SB Nation exclusive with Bobby Petrino, football mind

• New Oregon State logo, football uniforms revealed

• This Alabama tattoo will haunt your dreams

• All in, at last: SB Nation inside Gus Malzahn's Auburn

• Kliff Kingsbury isn't GQ enough

• The speed conspiracy: Comparing NFL and high school 40-yard dash times

Your Trifecta: Bowers-Brown-Ross. Your winner: nobody!

I've never bought in, 100 percent, to the "Defense is all about effort" narrative. Sure, effort matters, but so do execution and general basketball smarts, right? Well ... last night showed that effort is a good percentage of the equation. A team that hadn't played defense since the Florida game, allowed 22 points on 31% shooting with four turnovers, almost no second-chance opportunities and multiple desperation 3-pointers in a frenzied first half. Arkansas got the game it wanted -- up-and-down chaos for spells, lots of turnovers for Missouri -- and couldn't put the ball in the basket to save its life. That was tremendous. Of course, it also showed what this team is capable of. If Tennessee averages 1.15 points per possession this coming weekend, it will now be doubly annoying. But wow, what an effort. Sure, things loosened up in the second half. That tends to happen when you're up 26 after 20 minutes.

Mizzou 93, Arkansas 63

"Settling"

During his mid-timeout ESPN interview in the first half, Mike Anderson said his team was settling for 3-pointers and not getting the ball inside. And he was right. But his team also had almost nowhere to go with the ball inside. Last night we really did see in practice the defense we could see in theory: long arms impacting every pass and grabbing every rebound, muscle on the perimeter, et cetera.

We also saw this. And it was fantastic.

Apparently Frank Haith and Mike Anderson made nice after the game, but ... you get the impression that Haith was looking for a fight heading into this one. I don't think many Mizzou fans minded.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

• A perfect Laurence Bowers stat line. Just perfect.
• I'll say this, Jabari Brown: if you score 23 points on 12 shots, you are allowed to contribute nothing else to the box score.
• Earnest Ross with his sneakiest box score of the year. I had no idea he was going to be in the trifecta as I was punching in the numbers.
• Last 6 Games
  Oriakhi 15.0 Adj. PPG
  Bell 13.9
  Bowers 13.3
  Pressey 12.4
  Brown 10.4
  Ross 9.1
  
  I mean, that's pretty much exactly what you want to see, right? Mizzou is averaging 1.18 points per possession in its last six contests, which is just silly. Not quite "Mizzou in 2011-12" silly, but close. Of course, the 1.04 points per possession allowed still leaves something to be desired, but again, we saw what this D is capable of last night. Now do it again.
  

Three Keys Revisited

From yesterday's preview.

The Whistles

Always. This is a game involving a Mike Anderson team.

Fouls: Arkansas 29, Missouri 11
Free Throws: Missouri 40, Arkansas 13

Yeah, I'd say that worked out in Missouri's favor. Mizzou had a pretty clear mission: When you beat the pressure, go to the rim. And while the Tigers were committing turnovers like crazy there for a while (seven in the first seven minutes), they were also inducing all sorts of reach-in fouls while attacking the rim. And when they didn't get fouled, they probably got an offensive rebound. Oh yeah, and they were making five of nine 3-pointers to boot. It's hard to commit 10 first-half turnovers and lead by 26 at halftime, but that's the blueprint.

Mizzou Arena

Mizzou Arena is funny. When it is 100% into a game, which only happens once or twice a year, it has the power to cow both the visiting team and the home team. It seemed frequent in those old Kansas games that, when the stakes were high (primarily 2009 and 2012), both teams played a bit freaked out at first; and it happened again to an extent against Florida a couple of weeks ago. But that building can also carry the home team down the stretch. It is an amazing arena to behold in the final minutes of a rivalry game. And with the Anderson Effect, combined with Senior Night, I expect it at its best tonight. If Arkansas can overcome potential runs, keep the game close at the end, and then win in that environment, power to the Hogs.

Yeah, I don't think Mizzou was cowed too much by the home crowd. Arkansas had a couple of decent spells in the first half -- a 7-0 run from 18:07 to 15:53, a quick little 4-0 spurt from 11:08 to 10:15 -- but Mizzou was relentless.

5-0 from 20:00 to 18:50.
9-2 from 14:37 to 13:45.
7-0 from 12:46 to 11:08.
9-0 from 9:56 to 7:47.
13-0 from 3:55 to halftime.

Arkansas went on a quick 10-2 run to start the second half, but this was a fifth-round knockout. And the arena played its part

Tag Team

I could have gone with Phil Pressey here, and I could have gone with BCI! BCI! (this is a Mike Anderson game after all). Instead, though, I'm going with this. Over his last three games, Alex Oriakhi has averaged 17.3 points per game (on 72% shooting from the field) and 9.3 rebounds (4.3 on offense). And on Saturday, Laurence Bowers officially looked like Laurence Bowers again, scoring 23 points and grabbing 10 boards. The battle between Bowers-Oriakhi and Clarke-Powell will likely decide the game. Lord knows Flipadelphia will play a role, as will plenty of other factors (ball-handling, rebounding, etc.). But this battle is absolutely enormous.

Bowers & Oriakhi: 51 minutes, 34 points (13-16 FG, 7-9 FT), 19 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 blocks, 1 steal
Clarke & Powell: 54 minutes, 18 points (8-16 FG, 1-6 FT), 4 rebounds (1 offensive), 3 blocks, 5 steals

Coty Clarke and Marshawn Powell made up a little bit of ground with blocks and steals, but this battle was no contest.

(Clarke, by the way, could play on my team any day. I really like watching that guy. Tremendous role player, perfect for Anderson's system. But I digress.)

Summary

What a night, huh?

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.

Mizzou Basketball Links

• More Arkansas? More Arkansas!
  The Trib: Anderson puzzled by bitterness
  PowerMizzou: Powered Up: Fuel to the Fire
  The Maneater: When you leave Missouri behind
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou Hoops '13 Senior Night Pre-Game
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou vs Arkansas Highlights
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Frank Haith Arkansas Post-Game Interview
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Laurence Bowers Arkansas Post-Game Interview
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Jabari Brown Arkansas Post-Game Interview
• SEC Tournament
  The Trib: SEC foes say Tigers could make a run
• Wait, What Now?
  The Missourian (AP): NCAA investigator wrote letter on Miami booster Shapiro's behalf

Mizzou Football Links

• Spring Ball
  PowerMizzou: Spring Preview: Receiver
  We Are Mizzou: Coach Pat Washington
• 2014 Recruiting
  PowerMizzou: Daily Recruiting Blast: March 6
  PowerMizzou: Work pays off for [Lee's Summit West CB Logan] Cheadle

Mizzou Diamond Sports Links

• Wins!
  MUtigers.com: Tiger Pitching Shines in Sweep of Double-Header
  The Missourian: Missouri sweeps home-opening doubleheader
  KBIA Sports: Mizzou baseball dominant in doubleheader home opener
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: 2-0 At Home, $9.95 For Tex
• Conference play already??
  MUtigers.com: No. 5 Softball Set for Home Series with No. 7 Texas A&M

Other Mizzou Links

• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  The Trib: Wrapping up MU WBB's "great" season
  The Missourian: Point guards lead effort to reduce turnovers for Missouri women's basketball
  KC Star: WNIT is backup plan as Missouri women begin league tourney quest
• Mizzou Track & Field
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Track Ready to Take on NCAA Indoor Championships
• Mizzou Swimming & Diving
  The Missourian: Jamie Sweeney remembers Missouri diving's past in wake of recent success

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Sometimes things don't quite fall into place

To put it kindly, Eastern Michigan doesn't have much of a football history. The Eagles (then called the Hurons) experienced just one winning season in their first 11 years as a Division I program. They went 10-2 under Jim Harkema and won the California Bowl in 1987, won another 13 games in 1988-89 ... and have not won more than six games in a season since. Rick Rasnick went 6-5 in 1995. Ron English went 6-6 in 2011 (EMU was ineligible for a bowl that year because they won two games versus FCS teams). And that's your EMU football history.

The 2011 season was regretful. With a rather experienced team (English's third in Ypsilanti), it looked like EMU might have a path toward bowl eligibility and its first postseason appearance in 24 years. And that's how it's supposed to work, right? You scuffle along for a couple of years, get some of your kids in place, get some breaks from the schedule, and experience a lovely breakthrough. That leads to better recruiting, more success, et cetera. It looks great on paper, and sometimes actually works out the way it's intended to; but sometimes it doesn't work out.

EMU headed into November 2011 needing two wins in four games to reach bowl eligibility. The Eagles lost to Ball State, 33-31, on the heels of a last-second, 44-yard field goal. They handled Buffalo but fell to Kent State, 28-22, on a 70-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown pass. And late in a game with eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois, EMU got the ball with a chance to pull an upset. But a desperation drive stalled at midfield, and EMU lost, 18-12. Three great chances, three losses, one game short.

In 2012, the cycle began again. Ron English had to replace a ton of experience, due to graduation, injury and general attrition, and his fourth EMU squad regressed. Combined with a pretty tough schedule, EMU just never had a chance. That he got a fifth year in Ypsilanti is good -- too often, programs compound their struggles with an itchy trigger finger -- but one has to imagine he won't get too much more if his 2013 squad doesn't start to turn around the misfires of the previous fall.

2. The experience level is better this year

EMU doesn't have much of a senior class this season -- there is basically one senior starter on the offensive line, one on the defensive line, one or two at linebacker and one or two in the defensive backfield -- but last year's deluge of freshmen and sophomores is now a flood of sophomores and juniors. There are still serious question marks regarding experience at offensive line (three starters who had combined for 100 career starts are gone) and in the linebacking corps (four of the top five are gone), but EMU should expect to be both more experienced and better in 2013.

Probably not better enough, but you never know. The offensive backfield is legitimately interesting, and it could get even more interesting with the arrival of EMU's most highly touted recruit ever this fall.

2012 Schedule & Results

3. No hope in 2012

With a team stripped bare of experience, EMU's best hope for the first six games of 2012 (now that we know how much better Ball State and Kent State would become) was 1-5. EMU got thumped by a pretty good (for FCS) Illinois State team, and that basically clinched an 0-6 start. The Eagles were lucky to stay close to a field goal-happy Michigan State, and they almost won a shootout versus Toledo; plus they pulled it together, beat Army and Western Michigan, and almost took out Central Michigan (which would have denied the Chippewas bowl eligibility). But this was a "building for 2013" year from the start.

Offense

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

4. Hello, marquee recruit

A four-star recruit from Toledo St. John's high school fielded interest from Cincinnati and a lot of midwestern schools and had received offers from most of the MAC by the middle of last summer. But on July 8, he committed to Ron English and EMU, and he never looked back. In the end, Rivals.com rated him the No. 17 pro-style quarterback in the country and a Top 20 prospect in the rich state of Ohio, but he remained committed to EMU, becoming the Eagles' most highly-touted signee ever in early February.

As such, one would worry about Brogan Roback getting thrown into the deep end too early. But with the return of Tyler Benz behind center, EMU won't be forced to immediately find out what they have in Roback if he's not blatantly ready to go. Benz was an interesting option when he replaced starter Alex Gillett (who moved to receiver) early in the season. He showed some big-play capability in the passing game (13.3 yards per completion is pretty high; each of EMU's top three targets averaged at least 13.4 per catch) and was a reasonably competent runner (4.9 yards per non-sack carry), but EMU was lacking terribly in efficiency. It was big-play-or-bust in 2012, and ... it was mostly bust. Still, there are worse options than Benz behind center.

Running Back

5. Bronson Hill is explosive

EMU must replace its top receiver, but in junior receiver Donald Scott, sophomore Dustin Creel and tight end Tyreese Russell, the passing game still features some big-play threats (albeit ones who probably need to up their mostly awful catch rates a bit).

But the big-play threat in this offense is Hill, an October supernova last fall. Hill carried just seven times in five games but took over as primary ballcarrier against Toledo. In his first five games in that role, Hill carried 105 times for 724 yards. Keep that up for a full season, and you gain more than 1,700 yards. He gained just 106 yards in 28 carries in EMU's last two games, but he left his mark in October and early November.

Of the 114 FBS players with at least 140 carries in 2012, only 12 managed to average 7.0 highlight yards per carry, and only seven of those 12 were running backs: Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey, Oklahoma's Damien Williams, Kent State's Dri Archer, UCF's Latavius Murray, Utah State's Kerwynn Williams, Houston's Charles Sims and Hill. Highlight yards are, on paper, the yards you gain after the line has done its job; if the line could get Hill through the first level of the defense, Hill was capable of going a long, long way.

Of course, Hill will be taking blocks from a line that has to replace three two-year (or more) starters. Highlight yards don't really come into play unless you get the chance to create a highlight. There is some experience up front -- four returnees have started at least eight games -- but quite a bit less than last fall. New offensive coordinator (and former Ball State offensive coordinator and head coach) Stan Parrish has some toys in the skill position toybox, but a line that was a relative strength last year (37th in the country in Opportunity Rate, i.e. creating opportunities for its runners) might be a hindrance this time around.

Receiving Corps

Offensive Line

Defense

Defensive Line

6. Wanted: pass rush

End Kalonji Kashama logged two sacks in the first three games of the year, one against Ball State and one against Purdue. He reeled in a third sack against Toledo. Those three sacks represented 43 percent of EMU's season total. There was simply no push up front. EMU's rush ends combined for one sack, the same number as EMU's safeties. And while linebackers Justin Cudworth and Bryan Pali did combine for 13 tackles for loss in 2012, a) none were sacks, and b) Cudworth and Pali are both gone.

Now, EMU did pull off a decent 23 sacks in 2011; they aren't that far removed from competency in this regard. But with little new blood in the rotation here, it is difficult to see the Eagles suddenly generating a decent pass rush again. That, combined with a new set of starting linebackers, will put a lot of pressure on EMU secondary ... again.

Linebackers

Secondary

7. The secondary gets a boost

EMU's secondary needed some help, both because of its own iffy performance in 2012 and the complete lack of assistance it got from its pass rush. With two junior college transfers and a three-star freshman joining a senior safety (Donald Coleman) and a former star recruit (Pudge Cotton), it's easy to see this unit improving a bit. Whether that matters will depend on the front seven. Well, that, and the defensive coordinator, whoever that may be. Phil Snow is gone, but no replacement has been listed on EMU's website.

Special Teams

8. A mixed bag on special teams

Punter Jay Karutz was a lovely weapon for a team that, well, punted a lot, but with his departure, the special teams unit is relatively mediocre. Kicker Dylan Mulder was accurate on field goals (strangely, he was more accurate on those than on extra point attempts), and Tyler Allen showed a little bit of potential as a kick returner. But nobody on the team could get the ball into the end zone on kickoffs, and EMU gained almost as much yards on fair catches as it did when it actually tried to return punts.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

9. Find six wins

It does appear that Ron English has improved his overall recruiting in recent years. Roback was a big get, and in players like running back Juwan Lewis, receiver Quincy Jones, freshman OL Dwayne Brown, a pair of defensive tackles, linebacker Ike Spearman, safety Pudge Cotton and incoming defensive back Jaleel Canty, English has built up the raw number of three- (or four-) star recruits in the rotation. But ... find six wins above. If you treat the 2013 projections as legitimate (your choice), EMU would probably need to improve to perhaps the mid-80s in the F/+ rankings to have a chance at six wins (they haven't ranked better than 102nd in the last seven years), and they play three of their five worst opponents on the road.

I see this team improving in 2013, but I don't see it improving enough to make a run at the postseason.

10. But on the bright side, this guy is still in the league

This is apropos of nothing, but in my first official home game as a college student, I watched Charlie Batch throw for 256 yards and two touchdowns. That he is still in the NFL, and still providing spot starts for Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh (hey, 276 yards and an 89.6 passer rating against Baltimore in Week 13 this year), allows me to pretend I'm not as old as I actually am. Never retire, Charlie.

Follow @SBNationCFBFollow @SBNRecruiting

More in College Football:

• SB Nation exclusive with Bobby Petrino, football mind

• The 10 least powerful people in college football

• Bracketology: Spencer Hall's Carnival of Stupidity

• This Alabama tattoo will haunt your dreams

• All in, at last: SB Nation inside Gus Malzahn's Auburn

• The speed conspiracy: Comparing NFL and high school 40-yard dash times

Kudos to elpjuly4 for creating this helpful SEC odds image so we know what we're dealing with heading into the weekend. Tremendous work.

Mizzou Basketball Links

• Saturday
  MUtigers.com: Missouri Finishes Regular Season at Tennessee
  The Trib: Haith talks about Tennessee and other things
• AO
  The Missourian: Alex Oriakhi's only season with Missouri approaches end
• A Little More From Senior Night
  Post-Dispatch: Haith touched by support, expects to speak with Anderson ... some time
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): '13 Senior Night Speeches

Mizzou Football Links

It makes perfect sense that Gary Pinkel is limiting media access to Mizzou practices this spring. Tons of coaches do that, and they especially do that a) after a poor season with a lot of negative media coverage and b) when they're breaking in a lot of changes to the offense. Still ... it's disappointing. I love the long, detailed practice reports, man.

• Senior Day
  The Trib (Dave Matter): Missouri prospects work out for NFL scouts
  The Trib (Dave Matter): Speed sets apart Missouri's Gooden
  The Trib (Dave Matter): Richardson: I left on good terms
  The Missourian: Family helps Missouri's Zaviar Gooden prepare for NFL Draft
  The Missourian: Missouri pro day a big event for all involved
  KC Star: Richardson struts his stuff at Mizzou's Pro Day
  Post-Dispatch: Richardson gives a little extra at MU pro day
  PowerMizzou: No regrets for Sheldon Richardson
  We Are Mizzou: 2013 Mizzou Rising Seniors
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): 2013 Mizzou Pro Day Report
• Spring Ball
  The Trib (Dave Matter): Missouri shrinks media access for spring practices

  For the first time in his 13 seasons at Missouri, Gary Pinkel is cutting media access during spring practices. In the previous 12 seasons, all portions of every practice were open for reporters to watch and all players and coaches, other than mid-year transfers, were available for interviews after practice. As they come off a 5-7 season and prepare for their second season in the Southeastern Conference, the Tigers have battened down the hatches.

  Starting with Tuesday's practice, media will be escorted away from the field after approximately the first 45 minutes of practice and will be allowed to return after practice to interview a select cast of players and coaches. Pinkel will be made available for only 10 of the 15 days that the Tigers practice. His assistant coaches will be available after only six practices. All three scrimmages, including the April 20 Black and Gold Game, will be open for the duration of the scrimmage.

  PowerMizzou: Spring Preview: Tight End
• 2014 Recruiting
  PowerMizzou: [Illinois DE Dewayne] Hendrix's list continues to grow
  Al.com: Alabama monster hunt: Missouri OT Roderick Johnson latest behemoth to get offer
• Tickets
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Athletics Announces Launch of 2013 Football Season Ticket Request List
• Steckel Looks ... Comfortable
  We Are Mizzou: Mizzou Tigers Riding in a Black Hawk

Mizzou Diamond Sports Links

• Hmm
  The Trib: Earleywine: Ball is in Chelsea's hand the rest of the year
• Mizzou-ATM
  MUtigers.com: University Field Fan Information
  The Missourian: Missouri softball readies field, team for series against Texas A&M
• Mizzou-USF
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Welcome San Francisco to Taylor Stadium
  SimmonsField.com: MIZZOU MATCHUP: San Francisco Dons
  SimmonsField.com: GAME DAY: "...And That I Do Not Forgive"

Other Mizzou Links

• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  MUtigers.com: Missouri Falls to Vanderbilt at SEC Tournament
  The Trib: Vanderbilt beats Missouri in SEC Tournament opener
  KC Star: MU falls to Vandy in SEC tourney 53-40
• Mizzou Wrestling
  The Maneater: Tigers look to continue success at MAC championships
• Mizzou Gymnastics
  The Missourian: Missouri gymnast Tori Howard prepares for final home meet
  The Maneater: Missouri gymnastics to honor seniors Friday night
• Mizzou Tennis
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Travels to Face Kentucky, Vanderbilt This Weekend
• Mizzou Cross Country
  MUtigers.com: Cross Country Continues Making All-Academic Lists, Storms Earns Individual Honor
• Mizzou Swimming & Diving
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou Divers win SEC Titles