Your Trifecta: Oriakhi-Pressey-Ross. Your winner: nobody. Fitting.

18:06 left. Phil Pressey makes a hesitation-and-go layup, and Missouri cuts Colorado State's lead to 47-43. "We got this."

16:02 left. Jabari Brown pumps, drives to the elbow and fires up a soft jumper that misses everything by about three feet."Hmm."

15:25 left. Missouri plays solid defense for once. Ball gets tipped around, and both Negus Webster-Chan and Tony Criswell hit the ground going for it. The ball ends up in Greg Smith's (I think) hands, however, and he lobs the ball to a wide-open Pierce Hornung. At least, it looks like a lob. It is awful, however, and bounces off the rim ... and Hornung tips it in. CSU back up 8."Ah. Nevermind. That's how it's going to be."

Colorado State 84, Missouri 72

Perfect Circumstances

If you asked Larry Eustachy what he would want to see from this game in a perfect world, his answer would have probably been "Make some early shots, build a cushion, force Missouri to take some chances offensively and clean up the messes, force Missouri to take some chances defensively and kill them with their own aggression." Check, check, check, check, and check.

The early lead set the table for everything that followed, and while Missouri fought back from poor starts on quite a few occasions this year, Colorado State was too mature, too smart, to let that work. The Tigers' chances came down to one single run, really, and I described it above. Mizzou got to within four early in the second half, blew a couple of opportunities, got a couple of unlucky breaks, and four minutes after getting to within four, the Tigers were down 17. That was that.

Those Rebound Numbers

Goodness.

I mean ... Mizzou was actually mostly fine on the defensive glass. Colorado State was only +2 on that side, and one of those offensive rebounds was the Hornung's "tip-in" of the intended lob from Greg Smith. But there was absolutely no presence whatsoever on the defensive end. Colton Iverson grabbed eight defensive rebounds, and Alex Oriakhi grabbed one offensive rebound. That was the key matchup, and while Iverson did almost nothing offensively, he did his job on the other end.

I Have Absolutely No Idea...

...how Mizzou averaged 1.09 points per possession while shooting 42% (30% from 3-point range) and grabbing three offensive rebounds. Does not compute. But it does back up the simple idea that, despite the rebounds, offense wasn't the problem. This team was done in by its defense. We said it on multiple occasions this year, but I have to be honest and say that I didn't see that coming. I didn't see a CSU offense that was only good offensively, not great, averaging 1.27 points per possession. But again, that tells us how important the first few minutes can be. CSU made some shots they don't usually make (or take) early on, and it both gave them confidence and completely shook Missouri's.

I Ache For Keion Bell

He has been a strong representative of the university, and he was one of the primary reasons why Missouri was able to tread water this season when Laurence Bowers went down. Over a nine-game span, he was nearly flawless. And he was absolutely horrific last night. He brought nothing to the table offensively, and he was absolutely destroyed by Dorian Green on the defensive end. It was so bad that, despite being desperate for options and sparks, Frank Haith played him only 12 minutes. Negus Webster-Chan played 14.

I'm Not Going To Link To It...

...but Gregg Doyel's post-game column, which featured brilliant insight like (paraphrased) "Frank Haith is obviously an awful, awful coach, but he's won too many games to get fired,""Colorado State didn't even play well," and "Missouri was clearly more athletic, therefore they must have lost because they didn't care," was quite possibly the hackiest thing he has ever written. And that's a pretty lofty assertion. There were about 118 reasons to pick Missouri apart after this game, and he instead chose one that didn't actually exist. Well done. Effort was not a problem. It was everything else that was the problem. The effort was terribly misplaced, which is an entirely different problem, but it was there.

We'll Get To This In The Season Post-Mortem Series...

...but a team that features Phil Pressey and Jabari Brown in the backcourt is going to be a) good to excellent on offense and b) pretty awful in perimeter defense. Mizzou needed Keion Bell to be the defensive stopper outside this year, and while he had his moments, he just wasn't that guy. I'm not sure who that guy will be next year.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

• If Alex Oriakhi wins the Trifecta while grabbing just two rebounds, your team probably did not win.
• Granted, he got some solid garbage points there at the end, but Phil Pressey certainly wasn't awful on the offensive end. He missed some early shots that I didn't hate him taking, and he was the only one playing well at all for a couple of stretches. Of course, his defense was between mediocre and iffy (CSU actually burned Bell and Brown a lot more than they burned Flip, I think, though that's an at-a-glance impression that could be proven very wrong with film breakdown), and his counterpart, Dorian Green, somehow managed to score 26 points on just 13 shots.
• I didn't get to say this much (okay, at all) in the final three months of the season, but ... decent minutes from Negus Webster-Chan! I want him cutting to the basket a lot next year. At this stage in his development, he's much more interesting around the rim than hovering around the 3-point line.
• When Laurence Bowers made his first shot from the field, I was excited. Win or lose, I wanted him to have a big night. He didn't have a bad night (other than on the offensive glass), but he was mostly invisible. Damn shame.

Three Keys Revisited

From Wednesday's preview.

Hit the Glass

Let's not think too hard about this one. When the rebounding numbers (for both teams) are this absurdly high, it has to be the key to the game even if it's obvious. Whoever wins the expected rebounding battle will have a very, very good chance of winning the game.

Expected Rebounds: CSU +11. That's amazing.

Make the Shots They Give You

There's one sure way to win even if you aren't winning on the glass: Make shots. You don't have to rebound misses if you don't miss. If Mizzou's bipolar jump-shooters -- Phil Pressey, Laurence Bowers, Jabari Brown, Earnest Ross -- are knocking down the shots they are given (and they should get some decent looks), Mizzou could have too much offense for CSU. We know they can shoot lights out, and we know they don't always do so. In wins versus "real" teams, these four have shot 45% from the field. In losses, they've shot 38%. That might not seem like a huge difference, but these four have taken 61 percent of Missouri's shots this year. If they combine to take about 36 shots, the difference between 45% and 38% could be about five points. In what is projected as a dead-even game, five points could make all the difference.

Pressey, Bowers, Brown, Ross: 52 points on 16-for-44 shooting (36%). In other words, they shot almost their exact "Mizzou in losses" average. And some of those shots were quite open. The jumpers fell for CSU ... and didn't for Mizzou. It was the exact opposite of what needed to happen.

Flipadelphia

Honestly, the Iverson-Oriakhi matchup is going to draw a lot of attention, especially considering how well Oriakhi has played of late -- at least 10 points on 80+% shooting in five of his last six games. But this Missouri team is impacted most directly by the play of Phil Pressey. His play, of course, is dictated by others -- if Brown, Ross or Bowers are making jumpers, he sits back and dishes, but if the jumpers aren't falling, he shoulders more of the scoring load -- but his personality is this team's personality. And needless to say, his play in the final minutes of what will probably be a close game will be the most heavily parsed of any player on the court.

Flip was fine. Dorian Green was much better, of course, but Flip wasn't the biggest force for good or bad in this game. Those early misses sure didn't help, though.

Summary

Post-mortem series starts next week. I bet you can't wait.

That said ... here's where the tourney format is a good thing. While we all wish Missouri was still playing, you can still lose yourself in the tournament for another few days and forget at least a few of your cares.

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.

Quick note, as always: I'm sharing blurbs below but trying to keep them minimal because they're all from subscriber sites (PM, Trib). Mizzou is spoiled with the day-to-day coverage from Dave Matter, Gabe Dearmond, Pete Scantlebury, etc., and I highly recommend subscribing to these sites if you can. This year, fewer pieces of practice are open to media, to the point where Matter has been covering Columbia College basketball more than Mizzou spring football, but there have still been plenty of interesting tidbits.

PowerMizzou.com - Spring Notebook: Day 3

There's not much to be gleaned from these short open sessions in regards to the quarterback battle, but I took some time to watch the true freshmen on Friday. One thing that stood out is it seems Eddie Printz makes a concerted effort to bounce on the balls of his feet even during drills. While some quarterbacks take their time while warming up, Printz is in constant motion with his feet.

PowerMizzou.com - Spring Notebook: Day 4

It appears Evan Boehm's moon-lighting at center during the first week of practice has been made more permanent. On Tuesday, Boehm led the centers during stretches. Those stretch lines serve as an "unofficial" depth chart, but it should be noted that despite working at center during the first week, Boehm still led the left guards in stretch lines. His switch during stretch lines hints that there's more permanence to his move.

After practice, offensive coordinator Josh Henson said Boehm is getting a long look at center, but wouldn't go as far as calling it "permanent."

PowerMizzou.com - Spring Notebook: Day 5

Defensive tackle Lucas Vincent looked much quicker, and stronger, compared to his play last year. On one play, he overpowered Evan Boehm right into the backfield. On other, his bullrush was stopped by McNulty, so Vincent spun inside to tap the bag acting as a quarterback. I'll have a full feature up on Vincent later, but he's really rebounded from a tough year after tearing his pectoral muscle.

Boehm responded by completely shutting down Harold Brantley twice.

Mauk will get look at spring practices - Columbia Daily Tribune : MU Football

Henson has already installed new parts for Missouri's offense and, as Mauk happily shared yesterday, changed the terminology and breadth of MU's playbook.

"Everything is so much easier to think about," Mauk said. "You don't have to think about 20 different things that you don't know what they mean." [...]

Mauk said he considers himself a dual-threat quarterback, but those running skills could be stymied during controlled practices and scrimmages.

"The hard part when you're a creator — and I'm not saying he's Johnny Manziel or anything — but when you're scrimmaging and you can't touch a guy … it's hard to really judge that," said Hill, referring to the Texas A&M quarterback, who won the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman last year. "We'll have to judge that as we go."

PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Mauk eager to go
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Pinkel talks practice 3
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Hunt ready for more
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Henry Josey is back
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: RSFR looking to contribute
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: E.J. Gaines
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Washington learns WRs
PowerMizzou.com - PMTV-HD: Pinkel talks practice 5
PowerMizzou.com - Spring Practice 2 photos
PowerMizzou.com - Spring Practice 3 photos
PowerMizzou.com - Spring Practice 4 photos

Q&A with Josh Henson - Columbia Daily Tribune

Q: With your background coaching the offensive line, does that impact your perspective on the entire offense?

A: I think it's natural as a play-caller when you get into crunch time. I've been around quarterback-wide receiver guys who, when they got into crunch time, they leaned on what they knew. When you get into crunch time, you lean on what you know and what you feel like can have a direct effect. But I think you've got to be careful that way, too, that you don't become predictable in what you do.

Coming at it from an offensive line perspective, really, all I thought about coming into spring was not the offensive line. It's because I have a comfort level and know what's going on there. I've been through all the little adjustments to it. What I'm really doing this spring is making sure that I double check so that I know and know and know all the other parts to the offense. That's what you've got to have when you're calling plays.

PowerMizzou.com - A hungry spring

"Everyone's hungry," senior offensive guard Max Copeland said. "Everyone's angry. Everyone's mad. We didn't get to comeback with a, 'Oh, well, we still...". No. Everyone is sick and everyone put all that anger and frustration into any facet they could, whether it was the weight room or the field."

Receiver L'Damian Washington echoed Copeland's description of the team attacking offseason workouts. He mentioned the fact that others would talk about the break following the season, and every time he heard that, he would quickly interject.

"No, we didn't," Washington said. "Everyone came back early to hit the weight room, hit the field, to work on fundamentals. We're a hungry group."

"Sometimes when you have so much success and it's consistent and it's back-to-back-to-back, sometimes you need a reality check. We got that last year. I've never seen a group so hungry, never seen coaches so hungry, to be great again."

Not a lot to conclude at this point, really. The QB competition is ongoing, the offensive line is getting shuffled around, and the injury bug has more or less stayed away. Evan Boehm's move to center is the most interesting note of the spring, really. If it is indeed permanent, I'm curious what it does to the left guard position. Obviously Mitch Morse, one of the center candidates, can move to right tackle without a problem; he played that position a decent amount last year and wasn't too bad at it. But if Boehm indeed ends up at center, that means the left guard battle is between some combination of Brad McNulty (the assumed starting center), Mitch Hall, Connor McGovern, and Nick Demien. The quotes we read about McNulty last year were that he wasn't amazingly strong, so one would think that he might not be a perfect fit at guard. (Then again, people can get stronger, and he's put on some weight since last year.) Still, it's plugging one potential hole and perhaps opening up a new one. We'll see.

And on a further note, in terms of recruiting, this is the worst possible time for Missouri to have struggled on the field. In discussing his commitment to Ole Miss, St. Louis lineman Andy Bauer mentioned stability as one of the reasons for his choice. Right now, on the recruiting trail, opposing coaches are hammering potential Mizzou recruits with "Gosh, I don't know if Coach Pinkel is going to last much longer, so you might want to keep that in mind." And the only response Missouri can have is to kick butt next fall. Until then, though, there really is no response. That's a problem considering a) how many offensive linemen Mizzou has narrowly missed out on in recent years, and b) how many high-caliber, semi-local offensive linemen there are in this year's recruiting class -- Bauer, four-star Braden Smith (Olathe), four-star Roderick Johnson (Hazelwood Central). But again, Mizzou just has to tread water in this recruiting class until the Tigers prove this fall that they can turn/have turned things around. (If they indeed can/do.)

And the basketball keeps on rolling.

11:15 a.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Albany (CBS)

11:40 a.m. CT
WEST: No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Ole Miss (TruTV)

12:40 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 8 N.C. State vs. No. 9 Temple (TBS)

1:10 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 15 Pacific (TNT)

1:45 p.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Cincinnati (CBS)

2:10 p.m. CT
WEST: No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 La Salle (TruTV)

3:10 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 16 James Madison (TBS)

3:40 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 7 Illinois vs. No. 10 Colorado (TNT)

Granted, there's no Missouri, but there's some super-intriguing basketball today. And, of course, we have to gear up for Snowmageddon XVII. GET YOUR CANNED GOODS. THEN WATCH BASKETBALL.

11:15 a.m. CT
SOUTH: No. 4 Michigan vs. No. 5 VCU (CBS)

1:45 p.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 6 Memphis (CBS)

4:15 p.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 1 Louisville vs. 8 Colorado State (CBS)

5:10 p.m. CT
WEST: No. 6 Arizona vs. No. 14 Harvard (TNT)

6:10 p.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 4 Saint Louis vs. No. 12 Oregon (TBS)

6:45 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 6 Butler (CBS)

7:40 p.m. CT
WEST: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Wichita State (TNT)

8:40 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 4 Syracuse vs. No. 12 California (TBS)

And yes, I'm going to continue to use "Snowmageddon." It makes me laugh.

As we await the two-inches-per-hour snow that is approaching (Mother Nature is vengeful), we at least have some more basketball to watch. Hopefully the games are more competitive than they were yesterday.

(Any idea why Ohio State-Iowa State was the chosen only-game-on game to start the day? That's about the seventh most interesting game of the day for me. I'd have guessed that Kansas-UNC, Duke-Creighton, Indiana-Temple or Miami-Illinois would have gotten the top spot before that one.)

11:15 a.m. CT
WEST: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Iowa State (CBS)

1:45 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Temple (CBS)

4:15 p.m. CT
SOUTH: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 North Carolina (CBS)

5:10 p.m. CT
SOUTH: No. 3 Florida vs. No. 11 Minnesota (TNT)

6:10 p.m. CT
SOUTH: No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (TBS)

6:40 p.m. CT
WEST: No. 12 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 La Salle (TruTV)

7:40 p.m. CT
EAST: No. 2 Miami vs. No. 7 Illinois (TNT)

8:40 p.m. CT
MIDWEST: No. 2 Duke vs. No. 7 Creighton (TBS)

Mizzou Basketball Links

• The Post-Mortems Begin
  The Trib: Tigers never quite put it together
  The Trib: Ten dates that defined the season
  The Trib: This season's superlatives
  The Trib: Four for next season
  The Missourian: For Missouri, next season brings more questions
  KC Star: As Phil Pressey ponders plunge, Mizzou's cupboard is not bare
  Post-Dispatch: Mizzou's season never was cohesive

The Rock M post-mortem series should begin today, too ... definitely by tomorrow. I know you can't wait!!

Mizzou Football Links

• 2014 Recruiting
  PowerMizzou: Sleeper attracting big time attention

Mizzou Softball Links

• Mizzou 8, Georgia Tech 0
  Mizzou 16, Georgia Tech 0
  MUtigers.com: No. 7 Mizzou Roars Past Georgia Tech in Doubleheader
  The Trib: MU softball blasts five HRs in sweep of Ga. Tech
  KBIA Sports: Mizzou Pounds Georgia Tech in Doubleheader
  
• :-(
  MUtigers.com: Sunday's Series Finale vs. Georgia Tech Cancelled
• "Unique"
  The Missourian: Unique freshman Emily Crane energizes Missouri softball team
• Televised Stubble
  MUtigers.com: Doubleheader vs. Creighton Picked Up for TV
• Stubble Stadium
  The Trib: Stadium softball site still being considered

Mizzou Baseball Links

Win one by a hefty margin, lose two by smaller margins ... that seems to be the Mizzou Baseball way thus far in SEC play. The Tigers lost two of three to South Carolina while being outscored just 6-5, and they lost two of three to Tennessee while outscoring the Vols, 20-17. But hey ... 20 runs? That's a positive step for a team that has been simply dreadful on offense...

• Tennessee 4, Mizzou 0
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Drops Series Opener at Tennessee, 4-0
• Tennessee 7, Mizzou 6
  Mizzou 14, Tennessee 6
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Splits Doubleheader at Tennessee
  MUtigers.com: The Extra Nine
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: Mizzou Outscores UT ... and other sunny perspectives
• WHATNOT
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: Future Tiger Pitchers, Tep to Dallas?
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: Perspective, Pain, Prospects & Pitches

Other Mizzou Links

Really, really tough way for Mizzou Wrestling's season to finish. They were ridiculously close to a better finish than they got.

• Mizzou Wrestling
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Suffer Setback in Semifinals
  MUtigers.com: Tiger Style Finishes Season with Five All-Americans
  The Trib: MU wrestlers finish season 0-5 in medal rounds
  KC Star: Tough finish for Mizzou wrestlers
  KBIA Sports: Mizzou wrestlers don't perform to their potential, fall short in NCAA medal rounds
• Mizzou Gymnastics
  MUtigers.com: Gymnastics Shines at SEC Championships
• Mizzou Swimming & Diving
  MUtigers.com: Bouchard Takes Second at NCAA Championships, Mizzou Places 14th
  MUtigers.com: Bouchard Places Seventh in 100 Back at NCAA Championships
• Mizzou Tennis
  MUtigers.com: No. 3 Texas A&M Downs Mizzou, 7-0
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Picks Up 6-1 Win Over Wichita State
• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  The Trib: MU women look to build on season of 'growth'
• Mizzou Track & Field
  MUtigers.com: Tigers Wrap Day Two of Missouri Relays
• Mizzou Golf
  MUtigers.com: Gohn Leads Tigers at LSU Tiger Golf Classic

The Trib: Tigers' new coach knows ups, downs

In 26 years of coaching at nine different schools, there's not much Washington, 49, hasn't seen. That experience resonated with Missouri receivers before they stepped on the practice field this spring.

"He knows what it takes to be at a championship level," senior wideout L'Damian Washington said. "And he knows when something doesn't smell right in a 2-12 season. That's kind of good. He's been around for a long time and he knows what he's talking about."

"I have a good feel," said Pat Washington, who's also coached at Southeastern Conference schools Mississippi State and Auburn, where he played quarterback in the 1980s. "I've been with underachievers and overachievers. I have a good feel for guys who have potential. But potential means absolutely nothing. You want to get the word 'potential' totally out of your conversation."

At his third school in three years, it's now Washington's job to extract potential from a Missouri receiving corps that returns five players who caught at least 10 passes during last year's turbulent passing season. Injuries and ineffectiveness at quarterback impacted MU's production at receiver, but Washington inherited a group brimming with his least favorite word: potential.

(I'm not sure a 2-12 season is possible, but point taken.)

PowerMizzou: Realizing their potential

But potential doesn't always equal production, and Missouri's receivers know that. After a 2012 season littered with drops as Missouri played two quarterbacks, the Tigers receivers are ready to prove Washington's words:

"We're competing with every other receiving corps in the nation," Washington said. "I feel like we have the best receiving corps in the nation. Now it's about going out and proving it."

The competition is also on a local scale. Missouri rotates in a healthy number of receivers, so starting isn't everything on paper. But in the minds of these pass-catchers, seeing their name atop the depth chart fuels them this spring.

"If you're a starter, there's always someone coming for you," Sasser said. "If you're a two, there's a guy coming for you, too, a three. We're constantly competing. You can't come out here and lolly-gag because you think you have a spot or you played a certain amount of plays. There's always someone behind you, trying to get your plays."

There is no single unit more loaded with potential than Missouri's receiving corps in 2013. Think of Marcus Lucas tiptoeing the front corner of the end zone against Tennessee ... Dorial Green-Beckham sending a UCF defender tumbling on an 80-yard touchdown ... L'Damian Washington getting behind Georgia's secondary for a long touchdown ... Jimmie Hunt scoring seemingly every time he touched the ball ... Bud Sasser tracking down a bomb from Corbin Berkstresser and just barely outrunning the (tremendous) Vanderbilt secondary to the end zone. And now, this unit is joined by Darius White, a former blue-chipper from Texas. It is easy to get starry-eyed with the receivers.

Of course, there are two problems with that. First, this unit was loaded with potential last year but suffered through some serious drops and wasted potential, particularly in the middle third of the season. Bouncing back and forth between two quarterbacks -- one always injured, one a bit overwhelmed -- throwing different types of passes at different velocities can throw you for a loop. But this unit really did let its quarterbacks down, particularly in the loss to Vanderbilt. Sasser's catch in that game was great; everything else was not.

Second, this unit is dependent on quarterback play to be able to reach its potential. The receivers looked mostly great in November, but it rarely mattered. James Franklin's knee prevented him from throwing even partially accurate passes against Florida, and it wasn't the receivers' fault the defense collapsed against Syracuse and Texas A&M (and the offensive line got punctured repeatedly in short-yardage situations against Syracuse, as well). We'll see what changes new offensive coordinator Josh Henson makes when it comes to getting the ball to his play-makers (of which he has a ton), and we'll see whether Mizzou can discover some stability at the quarterback position. But with another year of maturity and competition, this really could be one of the better units of receivers in the SEC, at least outside of Tuscaloosa.

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Here we go*

A year ago, Toledo entered the season with a super-young, new head coach and without its top two running backs, three of its top four pass targets, three starting offensive linemen, its top three defensive linemen, two of its top four linebackers, and three of its top four defensive backs. Under Tim Beckman, the Rockets had recruited quite well in comparison to the rest of the MAC, but this was a lot of inexperience to overcome.

In last year's preview, I said the following:

If 2011 provided affirmation for the program Tim Beckman was building in Toledo, 2012 will be the ultimate test of whether the Rockets can withstand the typical parity effects of the MAC. Beckman was snatched up by Illinois in the offseason, and quite a few of Toledo's more interesting, explosive players are gone, replaced by unproven prospects and one-time star recruits. To keep the momentum going, both on offense and in the program as a whole, Toledo replaced Beckman with offensive guru Matt Campbell, [who] takes over a program that is both in transition and on an upward trajectory, having gone from three wins, to five, to eight, to nine in the last four seasons. [...]

[I]f the Rockets win eight or nine games this year despite the rash of turnover, the sky will have officially become the limit for a program that has recruited better than its rivals for a while now. The Campbell hire is both exciting (he's young and very, very proven already) and terrifying (he is also still just a 32-year old head coach), but he has as much upside as anyone they could have hired, and upside has been the name of the game for the Rockets recently.

Toledo won nine games in 2012. Sky becomes limit.

* Why "Here we go" instead of "It's time" or something similar? Because of that damned Bud Light commercial I've seen approximately 1,473 times since Thursday morning. I actually liked it on Thursday. Less so by Saturday.

2. Toledo is recruiting on a different level

It is an annual tradition at this point for me to spend part of the Toledo preview talking about the Rockets' ridiculous recruiting, but in 2013, it remained ridiculous. Toledo's 2013 signing class ranked 69th in the nation according to Rivals.com, ahead of BCS programs SMU (yes, they're BCS now, remember?), Cincinnati, Syracuse, UCF, Georgia Tech and Boston College, and it drastically outpaced the rest of the MAC. Bowling Green ranked 83rd, Central Michigan ranked 87th, and every other MAC program ranked 101st or worse.

Now, recruiting rankings only matter if they are followed by production, and Toledo's recent record is mixed. The Rockets have gone 20-4 in the MAC and won 26 games overall in the last three years, but thanks to Northern Illinois' recent run of dominance (which survived both turnover at quarterback and head coach), they have not been to a MAC title game since 2004. Northern Illinois is working under its third coach in four years and must once again visit Toledo for the rivals' matchup this fall, so maybe this is the year it turns around.

But either way, there are worse fates in the world than having to settle for nine-win seasons.

2012 Schedule & Results

3. Wanted: stability

Toledo faced two different issues in 2012, both of which could be ascribed rather directly to inexperience. First, the Rockets were simply a pretty poor team in September. One would expect this, really. Thanks in part to turnovers and special teams, they took Arizona (another team dealing with turnover early in 2012) to overtime despite playing relatively poorly overall (they were outgained, 624-358). Then they limped past poor Wyoming and Coastal Carolina teams and lucked into drawing Bowling Green before the Falcons' defense found fifth gear. Over the first month of the season, Toledo went 3-1 but played at, overall, a pretty low level.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 35.5, Toledo 28.4 (minus-7.1)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Toledo 32.7, Opponent 30.8 (plus-1.9)

The rest of the season saw a solid uptick in Toledo's overall level of play, but it was accompanied by drastic inconsistency. The Rockets looked great in disposing of Western Michigan in Kalamazoo, then tried really hard to lose to Eastern Michigan in Ypsilanti. They powered past Cincinnati, then fell at home to Ball State. They rebounded with solid reasonably performances against Northern Illinois and Akron, then fell apart late in the Potato Bowl versus Utah State. In all, Toledo's No. 54 ranking was good for third in the MAC (behind No. 33 Northern Illinois and No. 48 Kent State), but the team rarely played like No. 54. As often as not, it was either top 40 or bottom 40.

Again, though, what else would you expect from a high-ceiling team bereft of experience?

Offense

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

4. The healthiest quarterback platoon ever is no more

Matt Campbell was hired at a young age because of his prowess both on offense and in recruiting. With Campbell pulling the strings, the Rockets averaged 42 points and 481 yards of offense in 2011, and they did so with one of the most strangely effective, peaceful quarterback platoons ever. That year, then-junior Austin Dantin threw for 1,404 yards, 15 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 65 percent completion rate, while then-sophomore Terrance Owens threw for 2,022 yards, 18 touchdowns, three picks, and a 72-percent completion rate. Dantin was magnificent in the middle of the season (321 yards and five touchdowns versus Northern Illinois), while Owens lit up defenses late (1,070 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, no picks in the last four games of 2011). There were no threats of transfer, and there was no bickering. The two just alternated the No. 1 spot, and Toledo's offense pushed forward either way.

In 2012, Dantin struggled against Arizona (10-for-25 for 63 yards), and Campbell gave the reins to Owens, who did not relinquish them until a late-season ankle injury. With a new receiving corps and a new line protecting him, Owens completed 63 percent of his passes in the regular season, but his finish was less than memorable. He threw three picks in a tight loss to Northern Illinois (one that once again cost Toledo a shot at the MAC title), he missed the Akron game with injury (Dantin completed 29 of 35 passes for five touchdowns), and at less than 100 percent, he completed just six of 17 passes for 30 yards against a brutal Utah State defense in the Potato Bowl.

Owens was successful enough in 2012 as a whole that one would have assumed he'd beat out Dantin again in 2013, but Dantin is officially out of eligibility. The job is Owens' in entirety. And with a strong line and a developed receiving corps, he should do some very good things this fall.

Running Back

Receiving Corps

5. A weapon for every level

Strong recruiting might not produce star power, but it does usually give you solid depth. After a slow offensive start, Toledo established some wonderful depth in 2012 and returns a wealth of diverse options. You've got big David Fluellen (well, big for this offense), a solid between-the-tackles runner with occasional explosiveness. You've got Bernard Reedy, a Tavon Austin-style weapon near the line of scrimmage, capable of catching a high percentage of short passes and stretching defenses horizontally. And you've got X-receiver Alonzo Russell, a former star recruit who showed serious big-play (and low-efficiency) potential; Russell averaged 17.3 yards per catch last year; he caught six passes for 152 yards against Bowling Green, three for 98 against Eastern Michigan, and nine for 139 against Akron. Add to this lineup some interesting backups at running back (along with the ever-present threat of screens and dump-offs to the backs), big junior Justin Olack, and some high-upside freshmen (running back Kareem Hunt and receivers Rodney Adams and Zachary Yousey were all three-star signees), and Campbell has a lot of interesting toys in the toy box.

Offensive Line

6. Offensive line coach Tom Manning knows what he's doing

At this point, one could almost make the case that experience on the offensive line doesn't matter as much as having a great line coach. Certain coaches seem to milk quality play out of their lines no matter who returns, and let's just say that 29-year-old OL coach Tom Manning acquitted himself really, really well last fall. In 2012, Toledo returned just two starters from a line that had played at a really high level, and the line arguably played at as high a level, or higher. The Rockets were fantastic in setting up opportunities for their backs and avoided negative plays. Meanwhile, they protected two different quarterbacks well in passing downs situations. Despite decent size, this was not a line built to succeed in power situations, but this was a strong unit overall.

And now it returns four starters and 78 career starts in 2013. And it can probably expect to return another four starters in 2014.

Defense

Defensive Line

7. Recruiting rankings need to matter up front

Again, recruiting rankings are in no way guarantees of success. Development matters, and the rankings are not always perfectly accurate (to say the least). But Toledo needs them to be pretty accurate when it comes to the play of its front seven. The Rockets must replace five of their top eight players on the line, along with their top two linebackers (who combined for 9.5 tackles for loss, 11 passes defensed and 27 percent of Toledo's tackles). The departing talent was impressive, but it bears noting that the top two returnees on the line were each three-star recruits (and both Elijah Joens and Jayrone Elliott showed solid play-making ability in 2012), there are two three-star sophomores (Allen Covington and Robert Zimmerman) waiting in the wings, and two three-star freshmen enter the fray this summer.

Meanwhile, the linebacking corps might get a boost from three-star redshirt freshman Jaylen Coleman and three-star incoming freshman Austin Niswander, not to mention a full season from four-star senior Vladimir Emilien. Star rankings usually hint at upside; this front seven, which thrived in power situations but proved leaky at times, needs for that upside to become actual production.

Linebackers

Secondary

8. Who makes plays in the secondary?

Between corners Cheatham Norris and Chris Dukes, safeties Ross Madison and Jordan Haden (a Florida trnasfer), and newcomers to the rotation like Cameron Cole, Danny Larkins, and Delando Johnson, defensive coordinator Tom Matukewicz certainly has some athletic pieces here. But last year's Toledo secondary was a bit passive, decent at preventing big plays but content to allow shorter gains, and three of four players who defensed at least six passes in 2012 are gone. Can the pass defense avoid becoming even more passive in 2013?

Special Teams

9. A well-rounded special teams unit

I've written before about how kick and punt coverage can give us a hint toward a team's depth of athleticism. You want to put backups on the field, especially on kick coverage, and if you're allowing a lot of big returns, that is a red flag toward the competency and speed of those backups. Well ... Toledo's backups did their job perfectly well. Vince Penza was strong in the punting game, and though Jeremiah Detmer didn't boot many touchbacks, net kicking was decent, too. Throw in a good place-kicker (Detmer) and a great return man (Reedy scored four touchdowns on returns last year), and you've got yourself an exciting special teams unit, one that returns just about everybody.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

10. Survive, then thrive

The goal for last season is the goal for this season. If Toledo can weather a rough early slate that features two projected Top 40 opponents and four road trips in five September games, Toledo could catch fire in October and November. Only two of the Rockets' final seven games are against teams projected better than 93rd, and only two are away from home.

Win the games you're supposed to win and take out NIU for once, and you can survive a slip-up against a Bowling Green or Ball State with your West Division title chances intact. Toledo has the best depth in the conference; it's time to turn that into a conference title.

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If you are a Rock M regular, you probably know what's coming here. I've made this comparison before, and I'll probably make it again. But the fact remains: If the Internet existed in the 1970s, Missouri fans would have given up on Norm Stewart more often than not. Norm, for all intents and purposes the father of Mizzou basketball, frequently went through seasons where either things didn't quite click, or the season ended earlier than expected due to an early NCAA Tournament.

In 1971, Missouri went 17-9 and finished second in conference but couldn't get past Kansas and missed out on the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. (In those days, there were only automatic bids.)

In 1972, Missouri went 21-6 and again finished second; they once again missed out on the tournament, then, and lost to St. John's in the first game of the NIT.

In 1973, Missouri again went 21-6, again finished second, and again lost in the first round of the NIT.

You get where I'm going with this -- Missouri fans wouldn't have handled six Norm years without a tourney bid, along with poor postseason performances, very well. But let's continue.

In 1974, after years of near misses, Mizzou plummeted to 3-11 in conference and 12-14 overall. Needless to say, www.firenorm.com would have been getting record hits. In 1975, the Tigers rebounded to third in the conference but lost to to Purdue in the first round of something called the NCIT. By the time Mizzou reached its breakthrough under Norm, the 1976 Elite Eight run in his ninth year, Mizzou fans would have given up on him on 17 different occasions. Tigerboard would have started a petition to fire both Norm and the athletic director. Et cetera. And just two years following the Elite Eight run, Mizzou would go 14-16 in 1978 and 13-15 in 1979. They would lose earlier than expected in the NCAA Tournament multiple times during Sundvold-and-Stipo years. They would drop back to 16-14 and 18-14 following the end of the Sundvold-and-Stipo era. They would make the NCAA Tournament for five straight years from 1986-90 (the first time that had ever happened), but they would advance past the first round just once. Their NCAA Tournament record from 1983 to 1993: 3-8. Plus, he got Missouri put on probation in 1990. And then he only made the NCAA Tournament once in his final four years in Columbia.

In other words, if we really want to, we can put a pretty damn negative spin on the golden era of Mizzou basketball. We could have judged Norm Stewart harshly for about 29 of his 32 seasons in Columbia. We could have run him out of town on rails on about nine different occasions.

It is no surprise, then, that we are doing the same to Frank Haith right now. In his first year, he lost to a 15-seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In his second, he took a team that was ranked 15th to start the season and reached as high as seventh but went just 23-11 and lost in the 8-9 game in the first round again. I've already seen "First Round Frank" make multiple appearances here. And like many others, I grew rather frustrated with the way Haith stuck to his coaching beliefs -- take a guy out for the rest of the first half when he picks up his second foul, slow the game down in the final minutes when you've got a lead, et cetera -- even when they clearly didn't mesh perfectly with his personnel. And I'm clearly not sold on him becoming the Next Norm. I'm not sold on him at all, actually. That's partially because of the shortcomings and partially because, after two years, you really haven't learned much about anybody.

I know this, however: In 2011-12, Haith inherited a team stuck on 23 wins, one with no incoming recruits and little size, and turned it into a 30-5 squad. In 2012-13, he lost six members of his seven-man rotation and pulled off enough roster tricks to finish with a "disappointing" 23 wins. While acknowledging that the negatives exist, it is still safe to say the positives outweigh them.

We'll soon look at the projected 2013-14 Mizzou roster, but before we get to that, I want to step back a bit and ask a question that, two years in, I have no idea how to answer: What is Haithball? What is Frank Haith's intended style of play? What are the most consistent personality traits of his teams? We don't yet know the answer to this, in part because the roster has been amazingly in flux. He inherited a roster recruited to play a completely different style of play than whatever-Haithball-is and crafted a winner out of it. He flipped almost the entire roster, incorporated a wealth of transfers, and crafted a 9-seed out of it. And entering Year 3, with mostly his recruits now in the mix (alongside the aforementioned transfers), we'll only start to get our answer. But leaving aside any conversation of overall quality -- the quality of this year's squad, the potential quality (or lack thereof) of next year's -- let's try to figure out exactly what Haith might be working toward down the line.

To do that, we have to go back to Miami. As much as we'd all like to forget that Haith ever coached at Miami, it is instructive to do so here.

The Ken Pomeroy archive goes back to 2002-03, two years before Haith's head coaching career began at Miami. So what we're going to do is compare some of Pomeroy's stats to what Haith's Miami and Missouri teams have looked like before, during and after his arrival at these respective schools.

First, we'll start with the changes he's made so far. Here is a comparison of Missouri's average rankings in the two years before Haith and in Haith's first two seasons in Columbia.

So in Haith's two seasons, Missouri has slowed down considerably and used a tiny bench. On offense, the Tigers have shot much better, turned the ball over more, improved on the offensive glass, gotten to the line more, shot 2-pointers better, gotten more shots blocked, attempted a higher frequency of 3-pointers, and created a lower proportion of baskets via assist. On defense, Mizzou has regressed overall, primarily because the Tigers no longer force turnovers. They allow more open looks from 3-point range but challenge 2-pointers better, foul FAR less frequently, and foul guys who are much less likely to make their free throws (i.e. bigs). They block fewer shots but allow fewer baskets via assist.

Now, a lot of this might be explained by simply looking at the personnel involved. In two years, Haith has had Ricardo Ratliffe (as a senior) and Alex Oriakhi as near-the-basket threats. Mike Anderson had Keith Ramsey and Ratliffe (as a junior). Plus, the two-year "pre" sample includes a year of J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor in the backcourt, while Haith has had Phil Pressey, with all of his well-defined strengths and weaknesses, for two years.

Through two years, however, we really only know what Haith will do with either somebody else's personnel, or with his own stopgap personnel. What happens when the program truly becomes Frank Haith's? To explore that, we'll have to look at four sets of Miami data: the two years before Haith arrived (2002-04), Haith's first two years (2004-06), Haith's final five years (2006-11), and the two years following his departure (2011-13).

So Haith inherited a pretty flawed squad from Perry Clark and immediately closed the pace down. On offense, the Hurricanes turned the ball over far less, hit the offensive glass better, shot a little better from 3-point range, and created most of their baskets on putbacks or one-on-one (i.e. non-assist) situations. On defense, Miami improved a bit overall, but only marginally so. They forced far fewer turnovers (and fouled far less frequently) and allowed a ton of 3-point attempts (and makes) but were much tougher close to the basket and rebounded a bit better.

So there are some similarities here. Haith inherits another guy's personnel and engineers a better offense (thanks mostly to higher-percentage shots and better rebounding) while his defense rebounds pretty well and avoids fouls but allows a ton of 3-point attempts and doesn't force turnovers. On offense, they're aggressive and work from the inside out. On defense, they're relatively passive and work from the inside out.

So what happened to Haith's team once it officially became 'his team'? Well, the first thing to notice, I guess, is that the team's overall stature didn't really change. Miami's overall ranking was an average of 53.5 in Haith's first two years and 53.6 over his next five. That includes some ups and down -- 12-20 with a brutally inexperienced team in Year 3, then 23-11 in Year 4 -- but on average the product was similar in Years 3-7 as it was in Years 1-2. From Missouri's perspective, that's a good thing -- Haith's average product at Missouri has been a Top 15 team.

Beyond the general quality discussion, though, what changed for Haith's team once his recruits took over? Miami became an even better shooting team, for one, but they turned the ball over with increasing frequency and didn't rebound quite as well. They drew more fouls and shot better on 2s, 3s and FTs. On defense, the quality remained almost exactly the same. The FG% improved (especially on 3-pointers), though the Hurricanes still allowed a ton of 3-point attempts. They forced turnovers even less-frequently as time went on (while fouling slightly more), and their rebounding was about the same. So for most of the shifts we can see starting in the first two years, they continued as time went on.

Now, there is one other factor at play here: luck. Here's how it's defined for Pomeroy purposes.

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

So basically, all other factors being equal, luck should even out over time. Only, for Haith, it really hasn't. At Miami, his teams ranked 323rd, 321st, 180th, 255th, 318th, 181st, 286th, and 319th in Luck. At Missouri, it's been 127th and 259th. Considering the national midpoint around 150th-180th, that means Haith's teams have been lucky once, neutral twice, and unlucky seven times. That could suggest really bad luck -- technically, if you flipped a coin 500 times, you could hit tails 350 times -- or it could suggest that Haith teams don't necessarily close games well. We have seen both sides of the coin in two years; Mizzou was 9-3 in single-digit games last year, 6-7 this year. But it is at least conceivable that this year's struggles could become a trend. We'll find out soon enough.

(And for those who say that losing Ernie Nestor and his tactical acumen after last season hurt considerably, I don't know if we're ever going to know that for sure, but you certainly have a little bit of evidence on your side.)

At Miami, Frank Haith was pretty quickly able to establish his general coaching personality of quality shots, good rebounding and generally passive defense. At Missouri, we have seen the makings of the same style, and if his later Miami tenure is any indication, we can expect the same. His overall time at Missouri will be defined by the quality of the players he brings in -- with good enough talent, you can win with these characteristics -- though it bears mentioning that a) as one would expect, his team's Experience ranking was very highly correlated to its overall ranking (a 0.82 correlation) and b) this coming Missouri team will easily be his least experienced in Columbia.

With the caliber of transfers and recruits he's brought in thus far, and with the support the Missouri athletic department has given him (I speak specifically of more money for better assistants like Tim Fuller), I think Haith's floor at Missouri is higher than what it was at Miami, but I do expect a step backwards next year, Phil Pressey or no Phil Pressey (we'll get to Flip in this series, too). That said, the experience correlation means the overall program's trajectory might not be any different even with a step backwards. In some ways, we're finally approaching Year 1 for Haith's program (especially if Pressey leaves). We'll see where it goes from here.

Mizzou Basketball Links

• Was It Ever ... Raveled?
  The Trib: PHOTO: How it all unraveled

Mizzou Football Links

• Spring To Date
  PowerMizzou: Ten Thoughts: First Two Weeks of Spring Ball

  2. Missouri's receivers still have a ways to go. This may be jumping the gun, but in the only seven-on-seven action we saw, there were plenty of drops from Missouri's top group. That is a very limited sample size, but with all the talent Missouri has at receiver, there has to be consistency.

  3. Marcus Murphy looks like he wants to be the starting running back. I'm not sure if that's an ideal situation because of his use as a return man, but Murphy is doing everything he can to win the RB job. What stood out during the one day of contact drills we saw was that he was selling out as a blocker. He laid out a blitzing linebacker, then turned around and went wild, congratulating Corbin Berkstresser for staying in the pocket. With more blocks like that, Missouri's QBs may not have to leave the pocket.

• Videos!
  We Are Mizzou: Mizzou Football Running Backs
  We Are Mizzou: Mizzou Football Wide Receivers
  We Are Mizzou: Mizzou Football Tight Ends

Mizzou Diamond Sports Links

• This Is Getting Really Old
  MUtigers.com: Softball Doubleheader vs. Creighton Cancelled
  
• Baseball's Still On
  MUtigers.com: Baseball vs. Nebraska-Omaha Moved to Wednesday
  SimmonsField.com: MIZZOU MATCHUP: Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks
  SimmonsField.com: HI NOTES: Another Snowstorm, Another Rescheduled Game
• At Least We've Got This
  The Trib: For MU softball, at least one thing's different: homers
• And At Least We've Got This
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou Run Rules Georgia Tech 8-0
  Mizzou Network (YouTube): Mizzou Blasts Past Georgia Tech 16-0

Go on with your bad self, Nellie.

Other Mizzou Links

• Mizzou Gymnastics
  MUtigers.com: Updike Selected for Norman Regional
  MUtigers.com: Four Tigers Receive All-SEC Honors
  The Trib: Missouri gymnastics has NCAA Regional run end
  The Missourian: Missouri's Rachel Updike advances to regionals on vault, beam
• Mizzou Women's Basketball
  The Missourian: Pingeton looks forward to fourth season with Missouri
• Mizzou Men's Golf
  MUtigers.com: Mizzou Golf Playing Well at the Hootie At Bulls Bay Intercollegiate

Other

• Hmm ... Not Sure What To Think About This
  Serious Eats: Sandwiched: Mascarpone, Strawberry, and Basil Grilled Cheese Sandwiches

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Cruise control

Your defense is obliterated by injury, your offense regresses a hair, and you win nine games. That's a pretty good sign that you've reached your chosen destination.

Frank Solich arrived in Athens, Ohio, for the 2005 season; his predecessor, Brian Knorr, had gone just 11-35 in four years at Ohio, and Knorr's predecessor, Jim Grobe, earned a promotion to the Wake Forest job simply by putting together two winning seasons in six years. This was in no way a destination program, even by MAC terms. But in his second season, Solich won nine games. And after a minor setback (10-14 in Year 3-4), he has reached his cruising speed. After winning more than five games in a season just twice in a 23-year span, Ohio has only lost five or fewer games for four straight years.

The Bobcats have yet to pull off a conference title -- and while they will probably be considered this year's East Division favorites, they should expect a fierce challenge from Bowling Green, among others (Kent State, Buffalo) -- but this has become, alongside Northern Illinois and Toledo, one of the steadiest programs in a conference known for parity and quick ups and downs.

2. Boring is good

A year ago, Toledo hired Matt Campbell at 32. New Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck is just 32 now. Dan Enos was just 41 when Central Michigan hired him three years ago (and he still doesn't look a day over 35). New Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey is just 41 now. Pete Lembo is entering his third year at Ball State at 42. New Kent State coach Paul Haynes is a ripe, old 43.

And then there's Frank Solich. The former Nebraska head coach was 60 when he started his first season at Ohio, and he's only gotten older. (That tends to happen.) While much of the MAC is aiming for the Next Big Thing, Ohio was a little boring in hiring a coaching lifer. It has paid off.

While Solich did move from the I-formation to more spread-friendly principles over the years, his team's style of play has never been particularly MACtion-worthy. Ohio's 10-win 2011 team averaged 31 points per game (just over the national average) and allowed just 22. In 2010, Ohio won eight games with an average score of just 27 to 24. Ohio runs a lot, passes when it has to, leans on special teams when it can, and when it has the health to do so, attempts to choke the life out of a high-octane passing attack. It is a good recipe. There is nothing flashy, but that's okay.

Last year, when things got less boring, when Ohio's defenders started dropping like flies and the squad got involved in more MACtion-style shootouts (37-34, 38-31, 52-27), the results were not particularly kind to the Bobcats. A return to boring could mean very good things for Ohio in 2013.

2012 Schedule & Results

3. Attrition took its toll

Their projected starting cornerbacks played a combined one game -- eight plays -- in 2012. Their best defensive end was lost after four games. Their offensive line saw some attrition. Their quarterback got hurt. One of two primary running backs was barely healthy. Their leading receiver missed some time. It was a war of attrition for Ohio last fall, and it was ill-timed. After a season-opening win at Penn State, it wasn't difficult to scope out a potential BCS run for the Bobcats; the schedule was pillow-soft, and the overall level of talent and experience (when healthy) was as strong as any in the MAC. But as the year unfolded, Ohio just couldn't maintain its form.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Ohio 26.3, Opponent 23.9 (plus-2.4)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 35.6, Ohio 25.7 (minus-9.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 31.1, Ohio 23.6 (minus-7.5)
Adj. Points, Bowl Game: Ohio 45.4, Opponent 18.6 (plus-26.8)

Ohio was at its worst in the middle third of the season. The wins kept rolling in, but the warning signs were there. The Bobcats were barely able to hold off the MAC's two worst teams (UMass and Akron), and though they got to 7-0 before falling, it was obvious they would fall soon. The end of the winning streak came at Miami, and after a rebound against Eastern Michigan, the losses continued. A smoking hot Bowling Green team knocked them off in Athens, then two of the MACs better teams, Ball State and Kent State, dominated them.

Here's where bowl games can produce a lovely shot in the arm. Ohio healed up a bit during the bowl break, laid a whipping on UL-Monroe in the Independence Bowl, and headed into the offseason with spirits a little higher than they could have been.

Last year's injuries are still taking their toll, as well:

Unfortunately for Ohio, a lot of front-line players won’t be ready to go at all this spring. More than a dozen potential starters sat out the first spring practice, and most aren’t exepcted to take part during the next five weeks.

Included in the list of the injured, or recovering from surgery, are WRs Donte Foster, Mario Dovell and Landon Smith, TE’s Tyler Knight and Derek Roback, RB Ryan Boykin, OLs Sam Johnson, John Prior, Jon Lechner and Ryan McGrath, DE Nic Barber and S Josh Kristoff.

That said, the Bobcats still have five and a half months to get healthy for the season. If they do so, they should be a major player in the MAC race.

Offense

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

4. Ohio is set at quarterback, probably for a while

It only feels like Tyler Tettleton and Beau Blankenship have been sharing the Ohio backfield for a decade now. Tettleton struggled with an "undisclosed abdomen injury" for much of the middle of the season, limiting his dual-threat effectiveness, but he still racked up 2,800 passing yards, a 62-percent completion rate, an 18-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio, and nearly 500 pre-sack rushing yards. That's impressive considering he missed Ohio's worst opponent (Norfolk State) and only completed 52 percent against three pretty bad teams: UMass, Buffalo and Akron.

When healthy, Tettleton is a dynamo. But when Tettleton was hobbled, backup Derrius Vick showed some solid potential. In his only start of the year against Norfolk State, he completed 14 of 20 passes for 199 yards and four touchdowns. He completed five of 10 passes for 50 yards otherwise, and he showed reasonably decent running ability. With another year as Tettleton's understudy, he could be ready to do some pretty interesting things in 2014.

Running Back

5. Interchangeable parts

Beau Blankenship was Ohio's steadiest player in 2012. And by "steady," I mean he was just about the only primary difference-maker who didn't miss time to injury. He leads an interesting set of running backs in 2013; Blankenship (medium), Ryan Boykin (large), and Daz'mond Patterson (small) are built quite different, but they produced remarkably similar numbers last fall: they each averaged between 5.1 and 6.0 yards per carry, and they each averaged between 4.2 and 5.8 highlight yards (the yards after the line has done its job). Boykin showed the most potential of the bunch but couldn't stay on the field, and Patterson is already expected to miss part of this coming season. But if Blankenship does get hurt this year, depending on when it happens, Ohio could remain in good shape in the backfield.

It could be the same story at receiver, where Donte Foster, Chase Cochran, Matt Waters, and Landon Smith are all of similar size and per-target production levels.

Receiving Corps

Offensive Line

6. Can the line avoid mistakes again?

Ohio's overall rushing efficiency was pretty awful in 2012 -- the Bobcats ranked 113th in Rushing Success Rate+ -- but their ability to avoid setbacks and keep moving forward, however slightly, paid off at times. If they could just get to third-and-short, the line would deliver the yards necessary to move the chains. The line's stuff rate (the avoidance of tackles-for-loss on the ground) and power success rate (the ability to convert in short yardage situations) were both strong, even if its down-to-down proficiency was perhaps lacking. But in 2013, it will be without its two steadiest, best performers, guard Eric Herman and center Skyler Allen.

Solich has stockpiled some interesting prospects on the line; two-year starting guard Jon Lechner, one-year starting left tackle John Prior, sophomore center Lucas Powell, freshmen Nick Gibbons (redshirt) and Zachary Murdock (true) were among Ohio's more highly-touted recruits in recent years. It appears there is potential here, but can a less experienced line provide the same level of safety when it comes to avoiding mistakes and converting on third-and-short?

Defense

7. Opponents knew they could pass

Ohio's defensive front was far from intimidating. The Bobcats ranked just 110th in Rushing Success Rate+ and 108th in Rushing S&P+; that's not good. But while the pass defense ranked slightly better, it is perhaps telling that, even in a conference with plenty of run-heavy teams (like Eastern Michigan), opponents were content to pass all day against Ohio. Opponents ran just 53 percent of the time on standard downs, a sign that they saw some serious mismatches against Ohio's secondary. This makes sense: projected all-conference corner Travis Carrie was lost for the season in fall camp, and starter Jamil Shaw was lost in the first quarter of the first game. Ohio had to do some serious shuffling in the secondary, and with the line's own deficiencies, the Bobcats couldn't lean on much of a pass rush either. Quarterbacks had all day to throw to receivers that probably didn't need long to get open. Bad combination.

I might set a record with the number of times I use "if healthy" in this piece, but ... if healthy, Carrie, Shaw, and the now-experienced Ohio secondary should expect pretty impressive improvement in 2013. Of course, that will only matter so much if the line doesn't improve.

Defensive Line

8. Attrition that doesn't count as attrition

Eight members of Ohio's 22-man February recruiting class are defensive linemen. Two are junior college transfers (and Solich doesn't mine the JUCOs that heavily). That's a pretty good sign that everybody involved knows that Ohio's front four needs serious improvement.

It's also a good sign that the attrition up front -- five of Ohio's seven leading tacklers on the line have graduated -- won't mean too much. Granted, tackles Carl Jones and Neal Huynh combined for a pretty impressive (for tackles) 15.5 tackles for loss, and end Tremayne Scott was a strong contributor before injury. But Ohio already got used to playing without Scott, and if newcomers like JUCOs Watson Tautuiaki and Cameron McLeod, along with perhaps one of many freshmen, can mix with returnees Antwan Crutcher and Ty Branz, improvement can be found. It can't get much worse than 114th in Adj. Line Yards and 108th in Adj. Sack Rate.

Linebackers

Secondary

9. Extra seasoning

I say it about 60 times per year during the preseason previews: Injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense. Without Travis Carrie and Jamil Shaw, Ohio was forced to dip into its reservoir of corners, instead going with then-sophomores Larenzo Fisher and Ian Wells and then-freshman Devin Bass. The results were less than impressive. But with Carrie (granted a sixth year) and Shaw returning eventually, Ohio will have a much deeper base of experience in 2013 than it expected to have. Throw in safety Josh Kristoff and Nate Carpenter, a particularly intriguing nickel back (six tackles for loss, five passes defensed), and now you've got a reasonably interesting set of defensive backs.

Special Teams