Quantcast
Channel: SBNation.com: All Posts by Bill Connelly
Viewing all 4373 articles
Browse latest View live

Mizzou's Greatest, #21-20: Doug Smith and MU-KU 1990

$
0
0

Again, as Missouri fans we haven't exactly witnessed many amazing final acts. Our team never peaks at just the right time. Of course. But the peaks are still pretty amazing. And Doug Smith came as close to a perfect final act (sort of) as anybody ever has.

The first thing I noticed about Doug Smith was that he was all legs and elbows. In terms of famous big men, I think Smith most resembled David Robinson with less definition; but his game was one of a kind. Out of a body full of angles and points came a game as smooth as that of any big man Mizzou has ever had. And his stats are just silly.

1987-88: 26.4 MPG, 11.3 PPG (50% FG, 64% FT), 6.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 BPG, 1.0 SPG
1988-89: 27.1 MPG, 13.9 PPG (48% FG, 74% FT), 6.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.1 SPG
1989-90: 29.4 MPG, 19.8 PPG (56% FG, 71% FT), 9.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.9 BPG, 1.4 SPG
1990-91: 35.0 MPG, 23.6 PPG (50% FG, 82% FT), 10.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.4 BPG, 2.1 SPG


Smith's career was both incredible and tragic. Mizzou reached what may have been its all-time peak late in his junior year, but the wheels came off late thanks to some combination of injury and fatigue. And in his senior season, he posted stats almost as good as a big man can produce -- a 24 & 10 with three assists and two steals in 35 minutes a night -- on a team that, thanks to NCAA probation, had no chance of making noise in the NCAA Tournament. Still, there was a bittersweet ending: Mizzou began the season just 14-10 and 6-6 in Big 8 play in 1990-91, but the Tigers won the final six games of Smith's career, closing out the season with a win at Kansas State, two huge home wins (Colorado, Notre Dame), and a three-game sweep of the Big 8 Tournament.

From Michael Atchison's True Sons:

Mizzou went into the Big Eight Tournament on a roll, but the Tigers’ presence irked some around the league. The tournament title came with an automatic bid to the NCAA field, but Missouri was ineligible for postseason play due to probation. If the Tigers could win, they might prevent an eligible team from advancing to the NCAA’s.

After a cakewalk in round one against Iowa State, the Tigers walked a tightrope in the semifinals.  Top-seeded Oklahoma State rallied from 16 points down to force two overtimes. But Missouri endured in a 94-92 victory, as Doug Smith played 46 minutes on his way to 29 points and 10 rebounds.

The final pitted Missouri against 13th-ranked Nebraska. Late scores by Jamal Coleman opened up a decisive lead in a 90-82 victory. Peeler posted 18 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists, and earned a spot on the all-tournament team. But the story of the weekend – and the season – was Doug Smith, whose 31 points helped him set records for scoring in a single tournament (92 points) and in a career (207). Smith’s play reflected the urgency he felt. "I knew this would be my last chance to play with my teammates," he said, "and I didn’t want to go out with a loss." For Norm Stewart and the program, the victory was cathartic. "To have all the things that have gone on with us this season and still do this well [is] just very, very special," said the coach. True to their character, the Tigers played best when it was personal.

Doug Smith may have grown up in Michigan, but in four scintillating years, he proved to be a true son of old Mizzou. -- Michael Atchison

Fittingly, Doug Smith went out a winner, leaving a legacy among the very best in Missouri basketball history. The conference player of the year for the second straight season, Smith left Columbia as Missouri’s all-time leading rebounder. He also stood number two in points scored, blocked shots and steals, and number eight in assists. Doug Smith may have grown up in Michigan, but in four scintillating years, he proved to be a true son of old Mizzou.

But let's rewind a bit. Before we knew of the bittersweet ending that was to follow, we only knew one thing in January and February 1990: Mizzou had the best basketball team in the country. Smith was a major reason for that, but everything was clicking. And two wins over Kansas -- a 95-87 triumph in Columbia on January 20 and a 77-71 win in Lawrence on February 13 -- proved it.

Again from True Sons:

When the Kansas Jayhawks arrived in Columbia, they stood 19-0, the top-ranked team in the nation. The Tigers, 16-1, were ranked fourth. For over eight decades, Missouri and Kansas had battled in basketball. The clashes were personal, not just to the players and coaches, but to fans, students, and citizens of the states, even ones who had never set foot in Columbia or Lawrence. It was a border battle with an almost nationalistic fervor, but it was, for the most part, locally contained. It mattered very much in the Heart of America, but went largely unnoticed in the nation’s extremities.

That began to change during Norm Stewart’s tenure as coach, when college basketball became a national spectacle, as television beamed games from coast-to-coast and stitched pockets of regional interest into one enormous patchwork. What mattered most, though, was the quality of the teams. Missouri had spent two decades becoming a power program, and never before had the Tigers met Kansas when each possessed such a lofty national reputation.

On Norm Stewart’s 55th birthday, a day when second-ranked Georgetown and number three Oklahoma lost, Mizzou’s fantastic four overcame a three-point halftime deficit and thundered past Kansas, 95-87. Smith scored 23, Buntin contributed 22, and Coward added 20. But more than anyone, Anthony Peeler dominated. Despite shooting just 5 of 15 from the field, Peeler made all 14 of his free throws and finished with 24 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and 3 steals.  "He is so talented, it’s unbelievable," said Kansas coach Roy Williams.  Talented, but also motivated. Having grown up on the border, Peeler understood the game’s meaning. "All these Detroit guys told me that there wasn’t really a rivalry for them," he said. "I was sitting there thinking, ‘it’s a big rivalry to me.’ I didn’t want to go home and have everybody on my case, talking about how they beat us."

For the first time since 1982, and just the second time ever, Mizzou ascended to the top of the national polls, but neither the players nor Norm Stewart made much of it.  More than anything, the ranking put a bull’s eye on Missouri’s back. The Tigers dodged bullets from Rutgers and Colorado, and narrowly escaped at Iowa State as Peeler took his game into the stratosphere. He scored 42 points – making all 20 of his foul shots – and grabbed nine rebounds. But it was the last of his five assists that made the difference. With the game tied and just four seconds left, Peeler dished to Travis Ford for the game-winning jumper. Norm Stewart called the 95-93 triumph, Missouri’s 20th win of the season, "a tremendous victory for us."

The win streak reached 12 games before the Tigers had their first bad outing of the year, a 65-58 loss at Kansas State. But they got back on track two days later and buried Nebraska, 107-85, as Doug Smith scored 44 points. "I wanted the ball today," Smith said. "Everything felt right." Nebraska coach Danny Nee called Smith "probably the most mobile 6-foot-10 guy this league has ever seen."

The K-State loss knocked Missouri to number two in the polls, and allowed Kansas to regain the top spot. But the schedule gave the Tigers a chance to take it back. Missouri’s next game, at Allen Field House, provided the first number one versus number two meeting in the rivalry’s storied history.

The Tigers played their typical game – offensively efficient, defensively aggressive, indifferent to the hostile environment. They built a 10 point lead in the second half, but Kansas caught fire and tied the game with a 10-0 run. Just when Missouri seemed to be on the ropes, Anthony Peeler put back an offensive rebound to give the Tigers a two-point lead. They never trailed again. Perfect free throw shooting in the final minutes secured a 77-71 victory.  Norm Stewart called the effort a "tough, gutty performance," and Doug Smith added "it was a great win because it was in the conference, it was against Kansas and it was in their place." Missouri basketball had never known any greater glory, certainly not in the regular season. Top of the polls, top of the conference, twice knocking Kansas from the number one ranking. Even with the investigation looming, it was a great time to be a Tiger.

Doug Smith played like a guard in the body of a lanky center. At first glance, he looked like he couldn't possibly have complete control of his body; at second glance, he was jogging back down the court after scoring on you in one of about 10 different ways. He was complete and unique, and he returned to Mizzou during one of its toughest times. He is a legend, as are the two enormous rivalry wins for which he was more than instrumental.


Mizzou Links, 8-9-13

$
0
0

I'm back! And I'm going to be offended if we don't again end up with 1,000+ comments today. You set the bar high while I was out of town.

1. Practice reports

MUtigers.com
Practice Report: Day Eight

The offense got 11-on-11 work off to a good start, as the #1 unit gained a pair of first downs against the #1 defense while working from the shadow of its own goal line. Starting at its own 1-yardline, the #1 offense gained seven yards on a pair of middle runs, and then senior QB James Franklin avoided pocket pressure and rolled out to find senior WR L'Damian Washington for 10 yards on 3rd-and-3. Washington made a nice sliding catch by the sideline to secure the first down. On the next snap, designated as a 3rd-and-1, Franklin found sophomore WR Dorial Green-Beckham on an out route for a gain of eight yards and another first down. Later, with redshirt freshman QB Maty Mauk guiding the way, the ones got another first down, with the highlight being a Mauk-to-Washington completion on 3rd-and-1 for a gain of five yards. Junior WR Bud Sasser helped spring the play with some good open-field blocking.

Post-Dispatch
Tigers closer to first scrimmage

Cornerback John Gibson, who’s still nursing a sprained ankle, also sat out drills today. He’s in line for the No. 2 job opposite third-year starter E.J. Gaines, along with Randy Ponder and David Johnson.

"We’ve still got guys battling for that No. 2 and No. 3 spot. It’s not settled yet," cornerbacks coach Cornell Ford said. "That group of guys who are after E.J., from there on down, everybody’s got to turn up the intensity and be more consistent. That’s what we’re looking for."

The Trib
MU quarterbacks develop bond while fighting for starting spot

Mauk would seem to hold a significant emotional edge in the minds of Missouri fans.

Namely because he, unlike Franklin and Berkstresser, never played a down as the Tigers were stumbling to their first losing season since 2004.

But Franklin outplayed Mauk in the spring, so Mauk decided to become a better student of the game over the summer.

Mauk said he'd hole up in the film room for an hour or more at least three times a week to pore over footage of himself and see where adjustments were needed.

"In the summer, there's really not that much to do in CoMo," Mauk said with a laugh. "I want to perfect everything I'm doing on the field. Film study, yes, it's boring. But it does help you, so I had to do it in my free time."

PowerMizzou
Camp Notebook: 8/8
Coach's Corner: Dave Steckel

So far in camp, Pinkel has been very complimentary of his freshmen defensive line, most notably the defensive tackles. He mentions how defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski refers to them as one of his strongest classes. However, "Coach Kool" (that's how he signs his name) is usually a more reserved guy when it comes to his players -- which is funny, considering all the success he's had with players across the line.

After practice, Kuligowski talked about his freshmen. Even though he's still reserved, it's clear how highly he thinks of them:

"This is a very good group of freshmen," Kuligowski said. "A lot of them are, but more than usual. These guys are all coming in here and they are closer to game-ready than a lot of freshman are. It's good to see, it's going to make our team better. Those guys are going to be competing their butts off for playing time.

"I don't know what's going to happen, but it's great when you've got a big group that's all great competitors and physical guys."

We Are Mizzou
Rookie Spotlight: Marcus Loud

Mizzou Network
Fall Camp 2013: Inside Access w/Mizzou QB's
Fall Camp 2013: Day 8 Practice Report - YouTube

2. Lots about the tight ends

Post-Dispatch: Mizzou puts revamped tight ends on display
KC Star: Sean Culkin could be Missouri’s tight end of the future
PowerMizzou: The Road He Followed

3. Lots about linemen

Britt
The Missourian: Britt balancing fatherhood, rehab and football for Missouri
KC Star: MU’s Britt looks forward to another shot at left tackle

Copeland
KC Star: MU’s Copeland bulks up after "humbling" junior season

Morse
PowerMizzou: PMTV-HD: Mitch Morse

4. Again, tempo

Post-Dispatch: Tigers pick up pace under Henson

5. WHATNOT

Soccer
MUtigers.com: Soccer Ranked No. 19 in Preseason Power Ranking

Volleyball
MUtigers.com: Mizzou Volleyball Picked Third in SEC East

6. Happy birthday, Fed

SI.com (Beyond the Baseline): Celebrating Roger Federer's 32nd birthday

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Boehm is already the line's anchor

$
0
0

Evan Boehm

#77 | 6'3, 315, So. | Lee's Summit, MO

2012: 12 starts, freshman All-American

Bill C.: On both the field and the recruiting trail, Mizzou has lost a lot of offensive linemen over the last couple of years. We've discussed the de-commitments of players like Simon Goines (a full-season starter for UCLA as a true freshman) and Germain Ifedi (a full-season second-stringer for Texas A&M as a true freshman) before, and we all know about the injuries -- how the projected 2012 starting five never actually saw the field at the same time, how all five members of that five (and a key backup) were all lost for various amounts of time. But through each type of loss, one name didn't go anywhere: Evan Boehm. Sure, he thought about going elsewhere in the fall of 2011, but he stuck to his original Mizzou commitment, signed in February 2012, and started every game during the frustrating 2012 season a few months later.

Under normal circumstances, playing as a true freshman on the line requires an advanced state, both mentally and physically. Only three OLs have played as true freshmen in Gary Pinkel's 12 seasons in charge, but Boehm was a no-brainer even before the injuries. He was a star recruit, overshadowed only by DGB in Mizzou's 2012 recruiting class, and considering his age, he lived up to the billing.

The main problem with last year, however, was that simply playing as a true freshman is different than starting every game and becoming the closest thing to an anchor on the line. Boehm wasn't ready for that -- almost no true freshman is going to be ready for that -- and he often struggled. The interior of the Mizzou line was punctured frequently, even later in the year when the tackles stabilized. The hope is that Boehm's growth wasn't stunted by struggle. Lord knows he's got talent, and lord knows the staff is showing a ton of trust in him, moving him to center and basically making him the captain of the line.

MizzouRugby: Be better at snapping than anyone last year. Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: I dont think his move to center is a bad one at all, and he will hopefully bring a solid amount of stability to the line for many years to come.

countrycal: As I said in my discussion of the OL coach – I think Evan has the most important job on the field simply because he touches the ball first. Every offensive play begins with him, and if it does not begin right then the play is not likely to produce maximum output. We have had one all-conference center after another since GP came to town. That being the case, we simply did not realize how disastrous it can be to play quality defenses with one of our quarterback’s hands tied behind his back due to poor snaps – that was just not in our playbook. Nor should it be. Any successful play must start with a timely, accurate exchange between the center and the quarterback. That has been the way it has happened each year until last year. I truly believe the loss of Travis Ruth hurt us more than any of the other losses, though the number of OL injuries finally trumped the season. Evan Boehm is a man among men, and a highly mental and highly skilled athlete. I foresee three years of successful exchange ratios and, thus, a fast, athletic offense that is going to stun the SEC. The move of Evan Boehm to center was absolutely coaching genius and is going to be the catalyst to Mizzou’s return to the Top 25 and quality bowl consideration.

2013 Georgia Tech's 10 things to know: Where's the Wreck headed under Johnson?

$
0
0

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. So where's this thing going?

So let's summarize every piece you've probably read about Georgia Tech over the last nine months:

  1. They still run the option.
  2. The defense stunk last year (and the defensive coordinator got fired, then insulted his former boss).
  3. Tech is not lighting the recruiting world afire.
  4. The Yellow Jackets beat USC, which was pretty cool.

All of these things are true, of course. Tech will always run the option under Paul Johnson, Al Groh did fire some shots after his firing, the Yellow Jackets do rank 69th in two-year recruiting, and they did indeed beat USC because of some combination of quality defense, wind, and actually wanting to be there. But how much are these quick-hit story lines associated with the long-term?

When Paul Johnson took over for Chan Gailey in Atlanta, Tech had won seven games in five of the previous six seasons. Since a 1-10 abomination in 1994, the Ramblin' Wreck were consistently good but rarely a national threat. The end of the George O'Leary era was exciting -- Tech spent parts of four straight seasons (1998-01) ranked in the top 15, but Gailey firmly entrenched himself in Glen Mason Territory, to the point where a seven-win season for anybody should just be called a Gailey.

Johnson took over, and things got interesting. Tech won nine games in 2008, then won 11 games and the ACC in 2009. Tech's No. 13 finish that year was its highest since 1994 and third-highest since 1966, Bobby Dodd's final season. He was proving that the Flexbone could be a winning approach at the BCS level, which was fun.

But since then, Johnson has pulled some Gaileys. Tech won six games in 2010, eight in 2011, and seven in 2012. Tech has been a top-50 team the last two years, but that's actually sub-Gailey. Is the Johnson era leading to something bigger, or is the status quo a fun, mostly successful offense that can't play from behind and a sketchy defense that leads to a few deficits?

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-7 | Adj. Record: 8-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 49
DateOpponentScoreW-LAdj. ScoreAdj. W-L
3-Sepat Virginia Tech17-20L26.5 - 24.2W
8-SepPresbyterian59-3W40.7 - 20.5W
15-SepVirginia56-20W61.3 - 23.9W
22-SepMiami36-42L28.3 - 34.5L
29-SepMiddle Tennessee28-49L28.1 - 41.3L
6-Octat Clemson31-47L47.7 - 30.2W
20-OctBoston College37-17W32.6 - 37.5L
27-OctBYU17-41L20.8 - 31.5L
3-Novat Maryland33-13W48.2 - 30.3W
10-Novat North Carolina68-50W48.4 - 33.5W
17-NovDuke42-24W26.3 - 26.8L
24-Novat Georgia10-42L29.1 - 37.2L
1-Decvs. Florida State15-21L40.6 - 22.9W
31-Decvs. USC21-7W27.3 - 6.5W
CategoryOffenseRkDefenseRk
Points Per Game33.63428.365
Adj. Points Per Game36.11328.668

2. Start well, finish well (and let's just ignore the in-between)

The Yellow Jackets began the season with a competitive loss at Virginia Tech and solid thrashings of two inferior opponents, Presbyterian and Virginia. And they finished with a competitive loss in the conference title game and a bowl win over the preseason No. 1 team.

Everything about that sounds pretty decent. All we have to do is forget the other nine games, in which Tech's defense fell apart and the offense couldn't pick up all of the slack.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Georgia Tech 42.8, Opponent 22.9 (plus-19.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 9 games): Georgia Tech 34.4, Opponent 33.6 (plus-0.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (postseason): Georgia Tech 34.0, Opponent 14.7 (plus-19.3)

Tech unlocked odd achievements like "lose by 21 points to a Sun Belt school but still win your division" (well, they won the division because Miami was banned from the postseason) and "allow 50 points and win by more than two touchdowns," so there was certainly some fun scattered throughout the midsection of the season while the Yellow Jackets were losing six of 10.

Following three straight below-average showings to bad defensive performances against Miami, MTSU, and Clemson, defensive coordinator Al Groh was let go, and the defense didn't improve much in his absence, at least until the postseason, in which Tech hung tight with Florida State before knocking off a flustered USC.

Offense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL3515523
RUSHING47513
PASSING11913437
Standard Downs12323
Passing Downs303129
Redzone7135
Q1 Rk201st Down Rk13
Q2 Rk82nd Down Rk13
Q3 Rk243rd Down Rk18
Q4 Rk15

3. The offense still works

For all the talk about poor recruiting, and for all the talk about consistently below-par defenses, let's not forget one simple thing: the offense works.

Tech's offense briefly tumbled in 2010 following the loss of stars like Jonathan Dwyer and Demaryius Thomas from the 2009 conference title team. But the Yellow Jackets' No. 49 ranking in Off. F/+ that season was the exception to the rule; Tech has ranked between sixth and 29th in the category in Paul Johnson's other four seasons. His stuff works, and it's fun to have it around at the BCS level.

The Flexbone requires a load of running backs, at least two quarterbacks, at least one play-action weapon lined up wide, and a potentially smaller, more agile line adept at cut blocking and taking advantage of bigger opponents' leverage up front. Without rockstar recruiting rankings, Johnson has been able to consistently put that together.

And nothing should change in 2013. There are some question marks at receiver, simply because of inexperience, but I don't see why Tech would rank any lower than about 25th in Off. F/+ this fall.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

PlayerHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsCompAttYardsComp
Rate
TDINTSacksSack Rate Yards/
Att.
Tevin Washington751331,22256.4%8496.3%8.3
Vad Lee6'1, 215So.*** (5.6)275659648.2%4358.2%9.3
Tim Byerly6'0, 212So.** (5.4)






Justin Thomas5'11, 179RSFr.**** (5.8)






Running Back

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsRushesYardsYards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TDAdj.
POE
Tevin WashingtonQB1687314.46.820-5.4
David SimsBB6'0, 225Sr.*** (5.7)1356124.52.04+0.9
Zach LaskeyBB6'1, 214Jr.** (5.4)1336975.23.41+4.2
Vad LeeQB6'1, 215So.*** (5.6)915746.38.09+14.5
Orwin SmithAB796828.68.95+27.6
Robert GodhighAB5'7, 190Sr.NR544297.95.54+16.1
B.J. BosticAB5'11, 173Jr.**** (5.8)342126.23.30+3.9
Tony ZenonAB5'8, 175Jr.** (5.4)311936.26.61+2.6
Synjyn DaysAB6'2, 221Jr.*** (5.7)231426.25.51+3.6
Broderick SnoddyBB5'9, 190So.*** (5.6)13503.84.40-2.1
Matt ConnorsBB6'0, 200Jr.NR7517.312.82+1.9
Deon HillAB6'0, 202Jr.*** (5.6)6406.73.60+1.1
Dennis AndrewsAB6'0, 190RSFr.*** (5.6)
Travis CustisRB6'0, 215Fr.*** (5.7)
Donovan WilsonAB6'0, 215Fr.*** (5.6)

4. As good a backfield as ever

"A load of running backs": check. Johnson likes having a couple of big B-backs pounding away between the tackles, and while David Sims and Zach Laskey are completely lacking in explosiveness, they perform their roles perfectly. Tech will continue to soften you up with these two until you take your eyes off of the corner. And when you do, the Yellow Jacets will run the option wide with quarterback Vad Lee and A-backs Robert Godhigh, B.J. Bostic, and Tony Zenon. Orwin Smith, the perfect A-back is gone, which hurts; but Godhigh is super-agile, Bostic is a former star recruit, Zenon has made the most of his opportunities, and redshirt freshman Dennis Andrews has evidently been turning heads behind the scenes.

"At least two quarterbacks": check. Last year, Tevin Washington was the starter for most of the year, but Vad Lee outperformed him on a per-pass and per-carry basis. Washington had a higher floor than Lee, completing a few more passes, taking fewer sacks, and better avoiding turnovers. But Lee's 22.1 yards per completion were useful, to put it lightly, and he was a redshirt freshman. His decision-making should improve to at least Washingtonian levels in the next year or two. He seems to have a nice toolbox for this offense, and if he doesn't, or if he gets hurt, then Middle Tennessee transfer Tim Byerly or four-star redshirt freshman Justin Thomas could take over with reasonable success.

"At least one play-action weapon lined up wide": Not sure. We'll get to that below.

"A potentially smaller, more agile line adept at cut blocking, etc.": check. Tech had sack issues in 2012, but that's going to happen in an offense not built to pass the ball much. Six players with starting experience return (104 career starts), including three two-year starters. This is one of the country's more experienced offensive lines, one that ranked in the top 25 in Adj. Line Yards, opportunity rate (getting runners to the second level of the defense), power success rate (power success rate), and stuff rate (avoiding negative plays on the ground). All-conference guard Omoregie Uzzi was good, but his is the only major absence. This is going to be a stellar line.

Receiving Corps

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsTargetsCatchesYardsCatch RateYds/
Target
Target
Rate
%SDReal Yds/
Target
RYPR
Jeff GreeneWR301828460.0%9.517.8%50.0%10.537.9
Orwin SmithAB281828864.3%10.316.6%64.3%10.238.4
Robert GodhighAB5'7, 190Sr.NR211522771.4%10.812.4%42.9%11.730.3
Jeremy MooreWR191019452.6%10.211.2%57.9%10.225.9
Darren WallerWR6'5, 225So.*** (5.5)16816250.0%10.19.5%50.0%11.021.6
B.J. BosticAB5'11, 173Jr.**** (5.8)14713950.0%9.98.3%28.6%6.418.5
Zach LaskeyBB6'1, 214Jr.** (5.4)10612260.0%12.25.9%50.0%13.116.3
Tony ZenonAB5'8, 175Jr.** (5.4)8719587.5%24.44.7%62.5%23.926.0
Anthony AutryWR6'2, 175So.*** (5.5)8311737.5%14.64.7%75.0%13.615.6
Chris JacksonWR524240.0%8.43.0%80.0%6.35.6
Deon HillAB6'0, 202Jr.*** (5.5)542080.0%4.03.0%40.0%3.02.7
Broderick SnoddyBB5'9, 190So.*** (5.6)211150.0%5.51.2%100.0%3.31.5
Corey DennisWR6'2, 201Jr.*** (5.5)








Travin HenryWR6'3, 210RSFr.*** (5.5)








Micheal SummersWR6'1, 190RSFr.*** (5.6)








Ricky JeuneWR6'3, 205Fr.*** (5.6)








5. Small sample sizes

In 2012, Tech had to replace Stephen Hill and Tyler Melton and didn't have just a ton of returning experience at receiver. But wideouts Jeff Greene, Jeremy Moore, and Darren Waller (who had combined for zero catches the year before) did their jobs, catching 55 percent of their passes at 18 yards per catch. And A-backs Smith and Godhigh contributed nicely to the passing games as well.

Greene and Moore are gone, leaving another relative experience void. Only Waller and Anthony Autry caught passes from the wideout position last year, but these two averaged 11.6 yards per target, and there are other options -- converted DB Corey Dennis and a load of freshmen. The 2010 season proved that Tech isn't guaranteed to have a good play-action game, and Lee did complete under 50 percent of his passes last year, but I can't make myself worry about this unit.

Offensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 115.1 3.393.3542.8%75.6%15.0% 73.0 7.8%7.8%
Rank 12 75425239 103 11083
PlayerPos.Ht, Wt 2013
Year
RivalsCareer Starts/Honors/Notes
Omoregie UzziRG38 career starts; 2012 1st All-ACC
Will JacksonLG6'3, 295Sr.*** (5.7)29 career starts
Jay FinchC6'3, 285Sr.*** (5.5)28 career starts
Ray BenoLT6'2, 295Sr.*** (5.6)26 career starts
Shaquille MasonRG6'1, 305Jr.*** (5.6)13 career starts
Morgan BaileyRT6'4, 297Jr.*** (5.6)7 career starts
Tyler KidneyRT7 career starts
Nick McRaeC2 career starts
Bryan ChamberlainRT6'4, 290So.*** (5.6)1 career start
Trey BraunLG6'5, 292So.*** (5.6)
Catlin AlfordC
Errin JoeRG6'3, 307So.*** (5.7)
Thomas O'ReillyRG6'3, 308So.*** (5.6)
Chase RobertsLT6'3, 280RSFr.*** (5.5)
Freddie BurdenOL6'3, 290RSFr.*** (5.5)
Shamire DeVineOL6'7, 355Fr.*** (5.7)

Defense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL43446134
RUSHING44769563
PASSING58233020
Standard Downs506841
Passing Downs325329
Redzone111106106
Q1 Rk491st Down Rk57
Q2 Rk502nd Down Rk65
Q3 Rk663rd Down Rk58
Q4 Rk73

6. 4-3 compatibility grade: B

Because of the start and finish, Georgia Tech's defense actually graded out alright in 2012. "Alright," as in "almost perfectly mediocre, but not terrible." The Yellow Jackets were quite solid against the pass (even when not facing USC's backup quarterback in swirling wind) but got consistently gashed by the run and folded in the red zone. A quality passing downs offense only matters if you can force passing downs, and Tech just wasn't consistent enough with that.

After riding Charles Kelly as a mid-season replacement for Groh, Johnson opted to bring in Ted Roof in the offseason. Roof's Penn State defense in 2012 had the opposite problem as Tech: outstanding on standard downs, unable to get off the field on passing downs.

The Roof defense typically lines up in 4-3, and it appears the personnel on hand might be able to adjust relatively quickly. Tech wasn't loaded with nose tackle-sized nose tackles in the 3-4, and having a pair of 270- to 280-pound tackles lining up between ends like Jeremiah Attaochu and Emmanuel Dieke makes a lot more sense. And if a couple of redshirt freshmen -- perhaps tackles Francis Kallon and/or Patrick Gamble -- were to seize a spot in the rotation, a weakness from last year could become something approaching a strength.

Attaochu is easily the most accomplished member of the defense, having racked up 27.5 tackles for loss and 19.0 sacks in his career. At 6'3, 242, he isn't exactly enormous for his new position (he was an OLB in the 3-4), but his role will basically be the same: get after the passer.

Defensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 94.1 3.013.3440.6%62.8%18.7% 105.0 4.8%5.7%
Rank 82 8073813374 53 5877
NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Jeremiah AttaochuDE6'3, 242Sr.*** (5.5)1356.57.6%12100111
Izaan CrossDE1320.52.8%31.51201
T.J. BarnesDT1420.02.7%51.50300
Emmanuel DiekeDE6'6, 270Sr.*** (5.7)1419.52.6%2.520311
Euclid CummingsDT6'4, 275Sr.*** (5.5)1419.02.6%430100
Shawn GreenNT6'0, 280Jr.*** (5.7)1417.52.4%301010
Anthony WilliamsDE6'4, 237Jr.**** (5.8)146.00.8%000010
Nick MenocalDE6'3, 248Jr.*** (5.6)144.50.6%000000
Christopher CrenshawDE6'3, 258Sr.*** (5.6)134.50.6%110100
Adam GotsisNT6'5, 277So.** (5.4)124.00.5%1.510100
Jimmie KitchenNT6'3, 279So.** (5.2)32.00.3%110000
Francis KallonDT6'5, 303RSFr.**** (5.8)

Patrick GambleDT6'5, 271RSFr.*** (5.7)


Tyler StargelDE6'3, 251RSFr.*** (5.6)
Roderick Rook-ChungongDE6'3, 263RSFr.*** (5.6)

Justin AkinsDE6'4, 240Fr.*** (5.6)

Linebackers

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Jabari Hunt-DaysMLB6'3, 247So.**** (5.8)1465.58.8%4.501411
Quayshawn NealyOLB6'1, 232Jr.*** (5.6)1363.08.5%3.522100
Brandon WattsOLB6'2, 235Sr.*** (5.6)1460.58.2%8.520120
Daniel DrummondMLB6'3, 245Sr.*** (5.5)1026.53.6%001000
Anthony HarrellMLB6'2, 230So.*** (5.6)1419.52.6%200010
Malcolm MunroeOLB77.00.9%200002
Kyle TravisMLB6'3, 225Jr.** (5.4)93.50.5%000000
Tremayne McNairOLB6'2, 230Jr.*** (5.7)
Marcus AllenLB6'2, 205RSFr.*** (5.7)

Beau HankinsOLB6'1, 232RSFr.*** (5.6)
Kevin RobbinsLB6'4, 230Fr.*** (5.6)






7. Living up to your recruiting rankings

The move to a 4-3 also helps to plump up a reasonably thin linebacking corps, at least in the sense that you now only need six players to fill out a two-deep. Sophomore Jabari Hunt-Days was at least decent for a redshirt freshman, and Brandon Watts was a nice presence on the outside. If young players like Hunt-Days, Kallon, and those on the upper tier of the three-star designation (Gamble, linebacker Marcus Allen) can live up to their recruiting rankings over the next couple of years, the front seven as a whole could be both deeper and better than last year's. If.

Secondary

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Jemea ThomasCB5'10, 195Sr.*** (5.7)1473.59.9%304600
Isaiah JohnsonS6'2, 210Sr.** (5.1)1370.09.4%4.511111
Rod SweetingCB1450.06.7%611701
Louis YoungCB6'1, 196Sr.**** (5.8)1226.53.6%001201
Jamal GoldenS6'0, 189Jr.*** (5.5)1418.52.5%003310
Chris MiltonS5'11, 185So.*** (5.7)1418.52.5%000210
Demond SmithS6'0, 185So.*** (5.5)1411.51.5%000000
D.J. WhiteCB5'11, 184So.*** (5.7)105.00.7%000010
Domonique NobleCB6'2, 204So.*** (5.7)133.50.5%000000
Coray CarlsonS6'0, 180Jr.NR43.00.4%110000
Fred HoltonS6'1, 210Jr.*** (5.7)
Lynn GriffinS6'0, 195RSFr.*** (5.6)
Zach AllenCB5'9, 175RSFr.NR






8. The secondary is the least of Tech's worries

Tech basically had a one-man pass rush last year; Attaochu alone accounted for more than one-third of the Yellow Jackets' sacks, and only one other defender had more than two sacks (Euclid Cummings). To an extent, that was alright -- Attaochu's damn good, and Tech still eked out a top-60 ranking in Adj. Sack Rate with him leading the way. Roof wasn't very successful in sack situations at Penn State last year, and I'm curious to see how much he dials up the blitzes this year. Will he elect to mostly just send Attaochu and drop linebackers into coverage?

Regardless, the simple fact that a top-60 pass rush begat a top-25 pass defense tells you good things about a secondary that returns mostly intact. Corner Rod Sweeting was strong, but he's the only departure. Seniors Jemea Thomas and Louis Young have proven capable of making plays both near and far from the line of scrimmage, safety Isaiah Johnson is decent, and a load of interesting sophomores will keep trying to chip away at the seniors' playing time.

If the front seven improves to a reasonable degree -- I'm confident it will improve, but I don't know how much -- the secondary will get the chance to prove itself one of the better units in the ACC.

Special Teams

PunterHt, Wt2013
Year
PuntsAvgTBFCI20FC/I20
Ratio
Sean Poole6'1, 160Sr.3339.741827.3%
Ryan Rodwell6'2, 198So.1339.703238.5%
KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
KickoffsAvgTBTB%
David Scully6'2, 205Sr.6761.62131.3%
Chris Tanner1557.116.7%
Place-KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
PATFG
(0-39)
PctFG
(40+)
Pct
David Scully6'2, 205Sr.37-393-650.0%1-250.0%
Chris Tanner18-185-683.3%0-0N/A
ReturnerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
ReturnsAvg.TD
Jamal GoldenKR6'0, 189Jr.2328.32
Orwin SmithKR1419.10
Tony ZenonKR5'8, 175Jr.317.30
Jamal GoldenPR6'0, 189Jr.1714.60
CategoryRk
Special Teams F/+112
Net Punting102
Net Kickoffs108
Touchback Pct98
Field Goal Pct103
Kick Returns Avg27
Punt Returns Avg17

9. Finding legs

The return game is in good hands. Jamal Golden could play a larger role at safety this year (and he could be a quality play-maker, having defensed six passes to only 18.5 tackles last year), but he's already a star returner who scored two touchdowns and got Tech in the top-30 for both kick returns and punt returns. The problem is, he was the only good member of the special teams unit last year. David Scully was sketchy from both a place-kicking and kickoffs perspective, and punter Sean Poole was not able to produce either decent height or depth. In Golden, Tech has a star; now it needs to find some legs.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
DateOpponentProj. Rk
31-AugElonNR
14-Sepat Duke88
21-SepNorth Carolina29
26-SepVirginia Tech23
5-Octat Miami25
12-Octat BYU34
19-OctSyracuse54
26-Octat Virginia71
2-NovPittsburgh35
14-Novat Clemson20
23-NovAlabama A&MNR
30-NovGeorgia9
Five-Year F/+ Rk39
Two-Year Recruiting Rk69
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*+4 / -1.9
TO Luck/Game2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)16 (8, 8)
Yds/Pt Margin**-0.1

10. A top-30 team could go 9-3 versus this schedule

And a top-45 team could go 6-6.

It's quite obvious that defense and special teams held this team back quite a bit and distracted from the fact that the offense was just about as good as ever. If Roof can connect with this defense, and if some youngsters provide front seven depth that the Yellow Jackets just didn't have last year, then the defense could at least turn into a top-40 or 50 unit. And if they can win their first three games -- Elon, a potentially tricky trip to Duke, and a visit from North Carolina -- there could be a lot more wins for the Ramblin' Wreck this fall. But with six opponents projected between 20th and 35th, this season could turn out in any number of ways.

And yes, despite my creeping bullishness, knowing recent history, another Gailey is probably a pretty safe bet.

More from SB Nation:

The developing Johnny Manziel autographs scandal

NCAA admits jersey-sale store was a bad idea

Official Coaches Poll Top 25 is out, led by Alabama and the SEC

Bill Connelly’s Big Ten preview series is complete

Projecting every 2013 college football conference race

Today’s college football news headlines

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Britt, Morse lead seasoned, serviceable set of tackles

$
0
0

Justin Britt

#68 | 6'6, 315, Sr. | Lebanon, MO

2011: 13 starts
2012: 9 starts (8 at RT, 1 at LT)

Bill C.: Four and a half years ago, Justin Britt signed with Mizzou as a run-of-the-mill two-star recruit, a local(ish) boy from Lebanon who had drawn as much attention for his wrestling as for his exploits on the football field. Now, he's the most well-seasoned player on the line, a two-year starter with 22 career starts who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in November and is already back to full speed. And he's a dad to boot.

Britt was part of a 2011 line that dominated on the ground, and it's worth pointing out that, with Elvis Fisher out against South Carolina, Jadeveon Clowney only had a good game against Missouri with Britt lined up at left tackle. Clowney had some ridiculous performances in 2012 -- 3.5 tackles for loss versus UAB, 4.5 sacks versus Clemson, a decapitation versus Michigan -- but while he had 1.5 sacks against Mizzou, he was mostly a non-factor for the rest of the game. (It was everybody else who was giving Mizzou fits in that game.) Despite shifting from right to left and back to right, his play improved over the course of 2012; after the first month of the season, in fact, I didn't have much concern for the tackle position. (The interior was a different story.)

If healthy, Britt plays at a level that far exceeds his recruiting ranking. He isn't an All-American, but I have little problem with him protecting the blind side of whichever quarterback Mizzou is playing on a given snap.

MizzouRugby: Don't get hurt.

The Beef: My thoughts exactly. Beyond that, a healthy and full season from Britt may lead to greater things for this young man come April. And if that happens, it means it was very likely (conversely) that James Franklin may have also survived the year like 2011 rather than 2012.

countrycal: The odds say we won’t get hit with another disaster like last year, so I am looking for most if not all of our OL to return to form and produce like the line has the past few years. Britt has the second most important job – protecting the quarterback’s back side. I really look for this young man to kick butt on some of the big names of the SEC. He’s big enough, he’s tough enough, and I can’t help but believe he has plenty of motivation.

Mitch Morse

2012: 11 starts (7 at center, 4 at RT)

#65 | 6'6, 305, Jr. | Austin, TX

Bill C.: Mitch Morse was an average center in 2012, struggling mightily with consistent snapping, especially at the beginning of the season. But while he, too, missed some time with injury, his late-season move to tackle worked out pretty well. Evan Boehm has taken the center job, so the athletic Morse can focus on his better position. He probably wasn't quite as successful as Britt at tackle, but he was also less experienced. Again, neither Britt nor Morse are All-Americans, or even potential all-conference performers, but they are more than serviceable.

MizzouRugby: Nope.

The Beef: A year ahead of Chappell and someone who saw a good amount of time on the field last year among the injuries, you hope Morse is one of many who end up benefitting from the time they got last year, however unexpected it might have been.

countrycal: If Mitch beats Chappell out, then we are really looking at some awesome depth. Bring it on.

Anthony Gatti

#70 | 6'6, 315, Jr. | St. Louis, MO

Bill C.: Anthony Gatti was getting hurt before it was cool to get hurt.

MizzouRugby: Don't even.

The Beef: Gatti may finally be healthy and ready to contribute to the team as the backup left tackle. I will say the time may be now for him, as he will be looked to replace Britt next season, but MU is bringing in a LOT of OL in our past and current classes. I’d love to see Gatti be in the mix all season as one in the rotation.

countrycal: A tough, experienced backup tackle. Goodbye 2012, hello 2013.

Bill C.: Actually, one more thing about Gatti, and I think I mention this every year: The dude passes the eyeball test. And he still almost looks skinny at 315.

Taylor Chappell

#62 | 6'5, 300, So. | Canadian, TX

MizzouRugby: Think about.

The Beef: Chappell was someone who was believed to be in the mix to play quite a bit last year before getting hurt in two-a-days this time a year ago. Since then, he has come back to find himself behind Mitch Morse at the RT spot. If he can get back to where we thought he would be last year, chalk him up as another in the rotation.

Bill C.: We were indeed hearing quite a few good things about Mr. Chappell. It will be interesting to see who gets more playing time in 2013 -- Chappell or Gatti -- and what that could mean for the battle to replace Britt next spring.

countrycal: We could have used him last year; we will definitely use him this year. Another big, talented sophomore. The trenches are looking particularly stout for the next few years.

Michael Boddie

#67 | 6'5, 295, So. | Gilmer, TX

MizzouRugby: Getting hurt.

The Beef: Every time I see Gilmer, I think of Varsity Blues and Gilroy. That is all I have to offer on Boddie, who I do not think is likely to see much time at all this year.

Bill C.: Gilroy's no Bingville.

Clay Rhodes

#72 | 6'5, 290, Fr. | Stilwell, KS

MizzouRugby: This year.

The Beef: If there is someone from the incoming class who might see some time, my money would be on Rhodes. A BEAST, he may be the closest to being physically able to play this coming year. But I think the future is very bright for this young man.

Bill C.: The coaches agree with that last part.

"Clay is going to be a really good player," Walker said. "He’s athletic, he’s big, he’s long, he’s got pretty good feet. He’s got to learn that he can use his hands to stop people and not lean on people with his face. That’s the number one thing...all high school linemen do that."

Walker, however, said it's still too early to say whether Rhodes, a three-star prospect according to Rivals, will actually redshirt or not, though Missouri coach Gary Pinkel recently said every freshman offensive lineman will likely need a redshirt year to get stronger.

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Does experience equal improvement for interior line?

$
0
0

Max Copeland

#61 | 6'3, 300, Sr. | Billings, MT

2012: 11 starts (all at RG)

Bill C.: There are a million obvious reasons to hope Missouri is really good this year. One of the less obvious reasons: The better Mizzou is, the more people will discover Max Copeland.

Max Copeland has personality to fill an entire two-deep, he has the perfect lineman attitude, and in 2013, he has more heft, too. The only question with Copeland is simple: How much talent does he have? It's great to have as many max-effort guys as possible setting the tone for the rest of the team, but the simple fact is that Mizzou wasn't good enough at actually blocking last year, and while the tackles struggled mightily in September, the interior of Mizzou's line really never did. While Nassib-to-Lemon was a big reason why Mizzou lost to Syracuse, so was Syracuse's ability to slice into the backfield in multiple short-yardage situations. (Same with Vanderbilt.) Quick lines devastated the Mizzou line, and while some good ones (Arizona State, Syracuse, and, it goes without saying, Alabama) are off the schedule, obviously you're going to be limited if you don't trust the line to do its job. Copeland is the incumbent and never saw his starting job seriously threatened in the spring. Here's to hoping that's because of how much he's improved, not because of how much his backups haven't.

MizzouRugby: Rock’n’Roll and don’t get hurt.

The Beef: Another person, similar to Matt White, though slightly less vilified because he walked on, has an impressive personality and is from Montana. At the same time, a number of Mizzou fans are somewhat bothered he currently exists as the starting left guard. Keep on rocking, Max ... keep on rocking.

countrycal: They say Max is up to 305 or more now. I am perfectly happy having him as a starter. Last year caught the kid by surprise – this year has not, and I see him opening some eyes as he comes in prepared to rock and roll.

Connor McGovern

#60 | 6'4, 310, So. | Fargo, ND

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: One starting guard from Montana, the other from North Dakota. Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. McGovern, if I recall correctly, was some sort of weight lifting champion coming out of high school. Starting as a sophomore is a very solid and exciting thing to have happen if he is truly ready for the test.

countrycal: Starting as a sophomore, with good talent behind him. This line is looking better and better as we go down the line.

Bill C.: There's no question that the line needed both health and some new blood. In late(ish) bloomer McGovern, the Tigers are getting the latter. McGovern wasn't a very big part of the rotation last year, but things clicked for him this spring. His emergence at right guard allowed for Mizzou to keep Evan Boehm at center permanently. Again, here's to hoping that's because of how good McGovern has become, and not a less appealing alternative.

Brad McNulty

#63 | 6'4, 300, So. | Allen, TX

2012: 5 starts (all at center)

Bill C.: Brad McNulty didn't get much mention during spring ball last year. That he started for nearly half the season tells you what you need to know about the health of the guys in front of him. But McNulty is the perfect example of the "Injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense" truism. In McNulty, Mizzou now has an experienced, toughened-up backup guard and center. And when players above him graduate, Mizzou will have an even more experienced, even more toughened-up veteran to serve as a major contributor/starter. That McNulty couldn't land a starting job this spring tells us immediately that the depth has improved as compared to eight to 12 months ago.

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: McNulty currently reads as the backup center. However, I imagine we see McNulty on the field at one of the guard positions at different times this year, as I would hope we go about trying to come up with a solid rotation of 7-8 guys who stay healthy for the better part, or all of, the year.

countrycal: Brad is experienced insurance for any of the three middle spots when they need a breather or should have to deal with an injury.

Nick Demien

#78 | 6'6, 300, Jr. | Wentzville, MO

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: I still remember seeing this kid at the end of his sophomore year in high school at Timberland. He was a monster then, but he never quite rounded into the form most Mizzou recruiting fans thought he would be. At this point, he is behind McGovern at RG. If he sees meaningful minutes this year, that is either a good thing (because he would have finally taken the next step) or a bad thing (injuries have come back to haunt us yet against).

countrycal: The kid still has potential, but last year may have been when it should have come forward. He may get hid on this line if it stays healthy.

Mitch Hall

#73 | 6'5, 320, So. | Russellville, AR

Bill C.: I don't want to get my expectations too high regarding Hall, who was struggling to crack the two-deep on what seemed like a pretty iffy line at Ole Miss not too long ago. But his presence assures us, again, that depth is better than it once was. And the dude's got SEC size, that's for sure.

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: The heaviest of the heavies on the line, Hall has spent his year on the sideline and now is 2nd in line behind Copeland. Is there a battle ready to wage between this Hall and Copeland?

countrycal: That is one big body. There is a lot of experience ahead of him to overcome, but you’ve got to like the bulk he brings to the table.

Jordan Williams

#76 | 6'3, 295, RSFr. | Denton, TX

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: MUTigers.com now has Williams at 6’3 and 295, so that is not bad to see. As a third stringer coming off his RS season, I do not believe his is a name we will hear much from as the year goes on.

Bill C.: Williams needed to pack on a decent amount of weight, and now he's done so. The Beef's right: If we hear his name in 2013, that might be a sign that a lot of bad things have happened. But he still has plenty of developmental time ahead of him.

Alec Abeln

#57 | 6'3, 290, Fr. | St. Louis, MO

MizzouRugby: Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: I recall hearing or reading Abeln was a volleyball player at SLU High while also playing football. I also remember hearing they liked him at center, but this may have been before Boehm moved over. If center is still the case, Abeln will have some time to come before he potentially sees the field.

Bill C.: Abeln was one of the first commits of the 2013 recruiting class. I think the best-case scenario is that, by this time next year, his development at center is making coaches wonder about moving Boehm back to guard. That's quite a bit to ask, of course, and after a redshirt year, Abeln could still serve as a quality backup center for a year or two before taking over for Boehm. Regardless, it's nice actually having freshmen to redshirt. Recruiting on the line has been less-than-successful of late, so it would be lovely if both Abeln and Clay Rhodes were able to provide quality pretty quickly.

2013 Mizzou Football: IT'S SCRIMMAGE TIME

$
0
0

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: The offensive line looks for a bounce back

$
0
0

As the Mizzou offensive line goes in 2013, so goes the offense. Thus far, experience and good health are both in greater supply this fall, but the latter could change in an instant.

Evan Boehm

#77 | 6'3, 315, So. | Lee's Summit, MO

2012: 12 starts, freshman All-American

Bill C.: On both the field and the recruiting trail, Mizzou has lost a lot of offensive linemen over the last couple of years. We've discussed the de-commitments of players like Simon Goines (a full-season starter for UCLA as a true freshman) and Germain Ifedi (a full-season second-stringer for Texas A&M as a true freshman) before, and we all know about the injuries -- how the projected 2012 starting five never actually saw the field at the same time, how all five members of that five (and a key backup) were all lost for various amounts of time. But through each type of loss, one name didn't go anywhere: Evan Boehm. Sure, he thought about going elsewhere in the fall of 2011, but he stuck to his original Mizzou commitment, signed in February 2012, and started every game during the frustrating 2012 season a few months later.

Under normal circumstances, playing as a true freshman on the line requires an advanced state, both mentally and physically. Only three OLs have played as true freshmen in Gary Pinkel's 12 seasons in charge, but Boehm was a no-brainer even before the injuries. He was a star recruit, overshadowed only by DGB in Mizzou's 2012 recruiting class, and considering his age, he lived up to the billing.

The main problem with last year, however, was that simply playing as a true freshman is different than starting every game and becoming the closest thing to an anchor on the line. Boehm wasn't ready for that -- almost no true freshman is going to be ready for that -- and he often struggled. The interior of the Mizzou line was punctured frequently, even later in the year when the tackles stabilized. The hope is that Boehm's growth wasn't stunted by struggle. Lord knows he's got talent, and lord knows the staff is showing a ton of trust in him, moving him to center and basically making him the captain of the line.

MizzouRugby: Be better at snapping than anyone last year. Don’t get hurt.

The Beef: I dont think his move to center is a bad one at all, and he will hopefully bring a solid amount of stability to the line for many years to come.

countrycal: As I said in my discussion of the OL coach – I think Evan has the most important job on the field simply because he touches the ball first. Every offensive play begins with him, and if it does not begin right then the play is not likely to produce maximum output. We have had one all-conference center after another since GP came to town. That being the case, we simply did not realize how disastrous it can be to play quality defenses with one of our quarterback’s hands tied behind his back due to poor snaps – that was just not in our playbook. Nor should it be. Any successful play must start with a timely, accurate exchange between the center and the quarterback. That has been the way it has happened each year until last year. I truly believe the loss of Travis Ruth hurt us more than any of the other losses, though the number of OL injuries finally trumped the season. Evan Boehm is a man among men, and a highly mental and highly skilled athlete. I foresee three years of successful exchange ratios and, thus, a fast, athletic offense that is going to stun the SEC. The move of Evan Boehm to center was absolutely coaching genius and is going to be the catalyst to Mizzou’s return to the Top 25 and quality bowl consideration.


2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: How is the role of the tight end changing?

$
0
0

The tight end position in the Missouri offense is changing this fall, but nobody completely knows how just yet.

Sean Culkin

#80 | 6'6, 245, RSFr. | Indian Rocks Beach, FL

Bill C.: We don't quite know what changes to expect from new offensive coordinator Josh Henson. Pace might be raised at times ... maybe there's some more running involved ... we've heard a lot about role simplification for the receivers. But the one thing we always hear is that Henson has much bigger plan for the tight ends. Whatever that means. More blocking, more catching ... just more.

Considering the number of good things we've read about Sean Culkin in the last year, then, this could work out really well. By all accounts, Culkin would have played last year if not for a temporary, but perfectly timed, injury nearing the start of the season. His highlight film shows someone with the combination of body control and fearlessness that you want to see from a tight end, and if he's ready to perform at a pretty high level in 2013, Mizzou's offense could have an efficiency aspect that it lacked last season. But he's a redshirt freshman. We're just over three weeks from the start of the season, and we're still speaking hypothetically about him.

Mizzou has had plenty of tight ends deliver a high level of quality in their second seasons on campus -- Martin Rucker started as a redshirt freshman, Chase Coffman had already caught 47 passes with four touchdowns by the time his second year even began, and at the very least Michael Egnew was a decent backup. Culkin was brought in to be like them: pass-catchers first, then situational blockers. It will be interesting to see both how well he performs and how well he fits what Josh Henson is looking for in the position.

MizzouRugby: Clearly the bigger offensive threat, Culkin is going to be asked to do a lot this year, both catching the ball in traffic as well as blocking the notorious collection of mutants/giants that are SEC D-Lines. Hopefully that job won't be too tough for his first year as a starter, and only second in the program.

The Beef: Culkin was impressive in the first week or so of camp last year before an injury derailed the progress and kept Culkin to the bench. I cannot help but think that Culkin ends up being one of the leading receivers on the team. Also, I love Indian Rocks Beach, home of Crabby Bill’s, home of the all-day Happy Hour and Yuengling on tap. It is right across from the beach ... you will thank me later.

CapnCribbs: An increased role of the tight end in the 2013 Mizzou offense means a big jump in Culkin’s ability to show his NFL potential. Josh Henson has promised time and again that he will make sure to expand the tight end’s responsibilities in his offense, and that means he’ll be doing more blocking as well as continuing to play a role as a receiver. If there’s one thing the tight end must be, it’s versatile. Culkin will likely see time lining up in the slot, next to the tackles, and in the backfield as a fullback. This will allow him to increase offensive efficiency in run and pass blocking, as well as get mismatches against linebackers by forcing coverage in the backfield. Color me as excited to see what he can do, and like The Beef, I think he will be a leading receiver on this team. Look for Josey and co. to benefit running off tackle as well.

countrycal: The signal has been sent quite clearly that the tight end is going to be more involved in all aspects of the offense at times, and then at other times will disappear for a four wideout formation. I’ve got to believe Sean Culkin’s name in on some of the special plays Coach Henson has put together. I doubt if that will disappoint any True Son, as this young man’s talents are utilized by our new OC.

2013 Mizzou Football: First fall scrimmage brings ... good news? Really? That can't be right

$
0
0

1. Links and recaps

MUtigers.com
Defense Claims First Scrimmage of Fall Camp

Even though the defense won the scrimmage, the Tiger offense made some big plays which drew applause from the crowd of families and friends in attendance. The first big strike came from senior QB James Franklin, who hit a streaking senior WR Marcus Lucas in stride behind the #2 secondary, and Lucas (who led all Tigers with 104 receiving yards on just 3 receptions) turned it up field for a 75-yard touchdown. After the #1 defense held the #2 offense without a first down in two out of three series, redshirt freshman QB Maty Mauk found a mismatch and hit connected with senior WR Jaleel Clark for a 65-yard catch-and-run touchdown.

Franklin ended the scrimmage 11-of-19 passing for 174 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, while Mauk finished 11-of-22 for 211 yards with one touchdown and one interception overall. Sophomore QB Corbin Berkstresser was 10-of-21 passing for 119 yards, while true freshmen Eddie Printz (15-of-16 for 97 yards) and Trent Hosick (3-of-10 for 21 yards and one interception) also got their chance to handle the offense.

The big plays weren't limited to the Tiger offense Saturday. The top defensive unit had three takeaways late in the day, with two coming against the #1 offense. The first came on a beautiful leaping interception by senior CB E.J. Gaines, who read a deep fade ball intended for sophomore WR Dorial Green-Beckham perfectly. Gaines jumped high to secure the ball in his outstretched hands before Green-Beckham could adjust to the ball. A few plays later, Franklin hit junior WR Bud Sasser on a quick out which gained five yards, but senior LB Donovan Bonner came up in a hurry and jarred the ball loose to create the turnover. The offense would recover on the next series, however, as Franklin hit Lucas for a 20-yard gain to the 16-yardline, and after a pass interference penalty, Franklin and Sasser hooked up on a 2-yard touchdown pass.

The Trib
Scrimmage Stats: Straight from the big yellow notebook
Scrimmage Notes: In which we get to watch some actual Missouri football
High snaps irk MU's new center

* Got to see a couple of freshmen working with the 2s on defense. The ones that stuck out most were defensive tackle Josh Augusta and cornerback Aarion Penton. So, while that doesn't necessarily mean they're definitely going to be part of the rotation right away, it at least means they're a little further progressed than their counterparts.

* Got to see a fair amount of nickel as well. Guys like Cortland Browning, E.J. Gaines and Randy Ponder held down the nickel slot. My best guess for the first nickel defense right now is Gaines at the nickel and Johnson/Gibson/whoever as the third corner.

The Missourian
Franklin, Missouri football pick up the pace in first scrimmage

What about the pace of the offense, just how much faster are things going to move this season?

"I want to be fast enough so that it’s an advantage for us to help us win games," offensive coordinator Josh Henson said.

Post-Dispatch
Mizzou wraps up first fall scrimmage
Gaines gives Mizzou a spark in secondary

Gaines and Missouri’s first-team defense played only a few series against the first-team offense, but he helped hold outside receivers L’Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham to zero receptions on those possessions.

"He’s an All-American, man," Ealy said of Gaines, who earned third-team All-SEC preseason honors. "E.J.’s just one of those guys you can count on to make the play if you’re not there."

On his biggest play Saturday, Gaines stepped in front of Green-Beckham, giving away seven inches to the 6-6 sophomore, and snatched an underthrown pass from Franklin.

"I just attacked it at its highest point like coach (Cornell) Ford teaches us," he said. "We do that drill literally every day."

PowerMizzou
Tigers spread the ball in first scrimmage
Scrimmage Analysis by position
PMTV-HD: Gary Pinkel 8/10
PMTV-HD: QBs react to scrimmage

Defensive Line: Earlier this week, Kony Ealy told us we were going to see a different player. He made a lot of plays on Saturday, something we'll have more on early this week. Shane Ray is a guy that's going to figure in, especially when Ealy moves inside in Mizzou's "candy" formation. Michael Sam is consistent on the other side. Lucas Vincent had a couple of big stops on Saturday and I think he solidifies his spot starting next to Matt Hoch. True freshman Josh Augusta was getting reps with the second-team and is definitely a guy to watch over the next two weeks.

Linebacker: I noticed when Mizzou went to the nickel formation that Kentrell Brothers was on the field with Andrew Wilson. Brothers had an interception during the scrimmage. Along with Donovan Bonner and Darvin Ruise, that should be Mizzou's top four. Donavin Newsom had a safety early in the scrimmage and I think he'll push for playing time as well.

Bless you, Candy Formation. May you always live on.

Mizzou Network
Fall Camp 2013: Scrimmage #1 Highlights

2. James Franklin is (all but) your starting quarterback

KC Star: James Franklin makes starting bid in MU’s first scrimmage
Post-Dispatch: Franklin states his case for QB job
PowerMizzou: Scrimmage Notebook: Close to a decision?
The Trib: Position battles, rotations and more

I loved that last Trib piece there. Ross Dellenger tracked the number of snaps players got at key positions that are supposedly up for grabs (quarterback, left guard) and gave us a pretty clear picture of who the coaches consider the leaders at both positions. The results aren't surprising, but I loved the approach

3. Duron Singleton is a Tiger after all

KC Star: Three-star safety joins Missouri’s football team after all

So ... uh ... is this ... good news? I don't ... how do you ... I'm not sure how to react to this.

It's important to still have fans

$
0
0

Either of the real or tongue-in-cheek variety.

Mizzou Links, 8-12-13

$
0
0

1. More from Saturday's scrimmage

KC Star: Notes, quotes and observations from MU’s first scrimmage

Missouri’s first-team defensive line was very disruptive, racking up six sacks, two pass deflections and two tackles for loss. I particularly enjoyed seeing Missouri’s nickel pass-rushing formation, in which defensive end Kony Ealy shifted down to the three-technique defensive tackle and was replaced on the quarterback’s blind side by sophomore Shane Ray.

It’s a third-down look the Tigers used at times last season, and it would be a huge boost to the defense if Ray, a Bishop Miege product who played at 235 pounds last year and recently told me he’s now 245, can find a way to be productive.

The Missourian: Missouri football notebook: First fall scrimmage held Saturday

And More from We Are Mizzou's Rookie Spotlight series
We Are Mizzou: Rookie Spotlight: J'Mon Moore

2. Hey, Mike

The Trib: Q&A with MU Athletic Director Mike Alden
The Trib (Steve Walentik): More from MU Athletic Director Mike Alden

Q: It’s obviously not a secret that football was the driver in all of the league shifting that has gone on. Obviously, it wasn’t just about what was happening on the field. A lot of it was financial. But as you look ahead, how important is it to have a turnaround season on the football field in terms of the stability of your overall athletic department?

A: I’ll answer it this way. The financial model of college athletics, particularly at our level — which Mizzou is at the highest level in college sports, we know that, the top conference in the country — so the financial model in our business is really predicated on football being a major driving force. Now, men’s basketball is also a driving force. Your annual giving is also a driving force, and in some areas, some of your Olympics sports are. But for the most part of this, football is going to create the largest share of revenue being generated for a program, exposure, television opportunities, whatever that may be. So I think for us, to continue, we have to show continued improvement. We’ve got to show a continued growth relative to our recruiting base, and we’ve got to show a continued elevation as far as competitiveness, and obviously winning games and filling the stadiums and all that kind of stuff. Again, that’s a process. I don’t think you put that based on, "OK, we’ve got to do this by X …" You’ve just got to show continued movement in that direction, because as we have continued to build the quote-unquote stock value of football at Mizzou — because certainly it’s become relevant on a national scale — it’s also become very relevant on a financial model with our athletic program. Now, when you step into the strongest league in the country, you have to show continued growth in that area, so those revenue streams, exposure continue to grow for all your programs. I think all of our Olympic sport coaches, all of our coaches would agree with that. I would think. They all know that that’s the driver.

3. Some "In case you missed it" links from the weekend

At some point, we may reach our saturation point with inspirational Henry Josey links (but we haven't yet)
Post-Dispatch: Josey’s long nightmare followed by lofty dreams

Daniel Easterly's got a head on him
The Missourian: Missouri football's Easterly dreams of a better Detroit

And you know I'm a sucker for target data
The Trib (Behind the Stripes): Target Practice: Pass distribution among Missouri's WRs

4. Not a surprise

MUtigers.com: Football Season Opener Kick Time Set

5. /runs through wall

We Are Mizzou: Mizzou Football Weight Lifting and Conditioning

6. Max

GammonsDaily.com: Max Scherzer and a Breakout You Can Believe In

Scherzer was a solid MLB starter, but for fans who watched him every week, the inconsistency was often frustrating. His delivery had a lot of moving parts and could easily get out of control and result in stretches of poor performance. When he was on, he was nearly unhittable, but when he was off he was dramatically worse. On balance that’s an average pitcher, but Jekyll and Hyde athletes can be maddening to watch.

The potential was there, it just required some hard work to develop consistent mechanics. Since the start of 2012, Scherzer has posted a 3.33 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 346 innings and 55 starts. He’s taken the leap from solid MLB starter to frontline ace. In the last calendar year, according to FanGraphs, no pitcher was been worth more than Scherzer’s 7.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which is a statistic that measures a player’s overall contribution to the team.

There’s certainly a case to be made for others, but Scherzer is among the best pitchers in baseball right now. He’s gotten a lot of mainstream coverage for his gaudy won-loss record (17-1), but the extreme nature of those numbers are due in large part to excellent run support (7.67 runs per 9) from the powerful Tigers offense.

If you strip away the team for which he plays, the raw pitching numbers are impressive and stand by themselves. Scherzer is striking out more than 29% of the batters he’s faced this year, trailing only Yu Darvish among starters, and is walking just under 6% which is an excellent mark for a power pitcher like Scherzer. He’s getting hitters to swing more often and to make less contact and has also added a curveball that’s made him more effective against left-handed hitters, but the leap has really been about consistency.

7. Hey, John

The Trib: ESPN’s Anderson will sponsor mile race

8. There are other fall sports, too, you know

Volleyball
MUtigers.com: Henning, Kreklow Named to Preseason All-SEC Team
The Trib: Missouri volleyball team is cautiously optimistic
KBIA Sports: Kreklow, Henning get volleyball preseason honors

Soccer
The Trib: Tigers lean on Diggs

Music Monday

One thing about travel is that it actually gives me some time to read. I started and finished Questlove's Mo' Meta Blues last week, and it was awesome. I think you have to come to the table with a certain amount of knowledge about the Roots' history to completely enjoy it -- he skips a few things, as if he assumes you already know them -- but if you do know them, it's a wonderfully enjoyable read.

I can't just do a Music Monday about the Roots -- I wouldn't be able to narrow it down to five songs. But I'll take a stab at a particular era instead. Here are five great songs from the Soulquarians era, where a group of artists (The Roots, Common, Erykah Badu, Slum Village, etc.) basically holed up, first in Questlove's house, then at Electric Lady studios, and made a series of albums more or less together.

"Water" might still be my favorite Roots song.

Introducing a new (old) author: Matt Hinton

$
0
0

In the sense that being analytical is a brand of sorts, it makes perfect sense to merge these 'brands' together. Matt was the original Analytical Football Blogger, and back in 2008 or so, when I was beginning to figure out ways to apply numbers to college football, the original SMQ was the first site I visited to attempt to get some feedback. It was a pretty big deal for me when Matt latched onto one of my original ideas (i believe it was the standard downs vs. passing downs concept), and it's a pretty big deal for him to join up with me now over here. (We also work together at Football Outsiders and on the Football Outsiders Almanacs.)

I'd go into detail about the work Matt is planning to do over here, but a) you probably already know the type of work Matt does quite well, and b) his first post should go up later today. No need for me to explain it when you can just read it for yourself. Regardless, this is exciting! Everybody say hi, Matt!

2013 Miami football's 10 things to know: Black clouds and traction

$
0
0

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Out, damned spot!

First things first: Al Golden took the Temple job. You're not going to scare him. After a decent five-year run as Virginia's defensive coordinator, he looked at a program that had gone 3-31 in the last three years, had ranked dead last in the F/+ rankings in 2005, and had stunk so bad that it lost its spot in the Big East, and he thought, "Yeah, I think I can make something of that." And then he actually did make something of that.

So yeah, Golden is probably not going to be thrown by whatever punishment the NCAA hands down soon ... assuming the NCAA ever actually hands down punishment. It's been an any-day-now situation for a while. But still, even if the punishment is harsh, anything short of more bowl bans or Penn State sanctions will be considered a relief for one reason: It will be over. For almost two years, Miami has been followed by a black cloud named Nevin Shapiro.

Before he took the job, Golden probably didn't know just how much of a scandal would erupt. It might have made him think twice. Then again, he took the Temple job. The man likes challenges.

At Temple, it took Golden two years to figure out how to get the program turned in the right direction. After going 0-11 and ranking 119th in 2005, the Owls went 5-19 and ranked 119th and 112th, respectively, in 2006-07. But in year 3, Temple went 5-7 and ranked 69th. In year 4, 9-4 and 52nd. Temple actually got back into the Big East because of Golden, and the momentum really picked up in his third year.

You can probably see where I'm going with this; it's Golden's third year in Coral Gables. The Shapiro cloud isn't done dumping on the program, but you can't plan for your future until you actually know your future. And despite that damned spot, Golden has attracted a solid staff and set of recruits to town.

His biggest star is a sophomore. His two leading receivers are juniors. His offensive line is strong and somehow both incredibly experienced (91 career starts) and still semi-young (four of six players with starting experience are juniors or younger). And at the very least, his defense, which has struggled to gain traction, has experience up front and a ton of four-star youngsters in the back. And while his Hurricanes have gone just 13-11, they are considered the favorites to win their division (the Atlantic, I think … no wait, the Coastal) and, if eligible, make their first trip to the ACC title game.

Somehow, against the odds, the long-term is looking pretty decent for Miami. The devastation that was assumed when the Shapiro revelations hit could still unfold, but it seems less likely. For all of the kudos that Bill O'Brien has received for both taking the Penn State job and making something of it despite sanctions, Golden could be receiving similar praise soon. You've got to respect a man who likes a challenge; now we just have to see if the third-year traction actually comes as expected.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-5 | Adj. Record: 7-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 65
DateOpponentScoreW-LAdj. ScoreAdj. W-L
1-Sepat Boston College41-32W26.9 - 39.5L
8-Sepat Kansas State13-52L20.8 - 36.6L
15-SepBethune-Cookman38-10W28.6 - 29.4L
22-Sepat Georgia Tech42-36W38.2 - 26.9W
29-SepN.C. State44-37W44.5 - 46.2L
6-Octvs. Notre Dame3-41L28.3 - 41.3L
13-OctNorth Carolina14-18L25.5 - 24.1W
20-OctFlorida State20-33L28.5 - 26.7W
1-NovVirginia Tech30-12W35.2 - 28.8W
10-Novat Virginia40-41L46.2 - 35.5W
17-NovSouth Florida40-9W42.0 - 24.9W
24-Novat Duke52-45W44.4 - 29.8W
CategoryOffenseRkDefenseRk
Points Per Game31.44930.583
Adj. Points Per Game34.12432.599

2. Turning it around

For the season as a whole, Miami was rather unimpressive in 2012.

Thriving over the last half of the season is rather predictive.

The Hurricanes had gone just 6-6 in 2011 but fell victim to some bad bounds, going 2-6 in one-possession games and still ranking a healthy 32nd in the F/+ rankings. In 2012, the Hurricanes faltered, going 7-5 but ranking just 65th; the offense fell from 13th to 46th in Off. F/+, and an already mediocre defense fell from 73rd to 88th in Def. F/+. A 3-2 record in one-possession games made things look better than they were, but the overall product was pretty questionable.

At least, it was questionable until you break the season into two portions.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 36.7, Miami 31.2 (minus-5.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): Miami 37.0, Opponent 28.3 (plus-8.7)

The Miami defense was never better than average, but the offense ignited, especially in November. The Hurricanes averaged 6.0 yards per play against a still-solid Virginia Tech defense in a surprisingly easy win, then averaged 7.1 against Virginia, 8.2 against South Florida, and 9.6 against Duke. Despite playing at an incredibly leisurely pace, Miami still averaged 41 points and 490 yards per game in November. Because of Miami's postseason ban, Georgia Tech played in the ACC title game instead, but the odds are pretty good that with this smoking hot offense, the Hurricanes might have had a damn good shot at beating Florida State in that game. (And the odds are also good that the defense might not have been good enough to close the deal.)

I often mention that bowl performances are in no way predictive of future performance, and we make a huge mistake in overestimating bowls' impact. But thriving over the last half of the season is rather predictive, especially when you're doing it with a super-young team. Despite mediocre recent history, the projections in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 rank Miami 25th, and I can see why.

Offense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL36205013
RUSHING83296218
PASSING25254616
Standard Downs11425
Passing Downs557345
Redzone346219
Q1 Rk181st Down Rk20
Q2 Rk352nd Down Rk31
Q3 Rk483rd Down Rk8
Q4 Rk1

3. Maintaining aggression

Say this for former Miami offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch: He was not a wallflower. Fisch, now the O.C. for the Jacksonville Jaguars, went for the throat as often as anybody in the country, and he occasionally succeeded. Only four teams had offenses more explosive than Miami's on standard downs, and while the Hurricanes weren't good enough at being aggressive on passing downs, there's something to be said for taking what you want instead of taking what the opponent gives you (namely: "It's fun.").

Miami's offense was more admirable than successful, however, at least before November. Explosiveness is awesome, and Fisch featured quite a bit of it, but inefficiency still caused the 'Canes to stall out at times.

Now, new coordinator James Coley will try to smooth out some of the rough edges without dulling the offense's big-play capabilities. Coley was the head offensive assistant under Jimbo Fisher at Florida State, but Fisher has always been the play-caller there. At Miami, Coley will get to make the calls; while he is known as a stellar recruiter and motivator, we don't know much about him in this regard. It will be interesting to see how he deviates from the Florida State attack, which, like Miami, moved at a leisurely pace but also ran the ball quite a bit more. (With Duke Johnson at running back, running more might not be the worst idea in the world. But we'll get to him.)

Quarterback Stephen Morris' 13.7 yards per completion were among the highest averages in the country; if Miami moves to more of a ground-based operation and features shorter passes, will it kill last November's buzz?

4. Good late

Miami had no problem finishing last year. Drives, games, sets of downs ... Miami finished them all with aplomb. The Hurricanes maintained explosiveness in the red zone and ranked a decent 34th in Red Zone S&P+, but they thrived considerably in the fourth quarter (first) and on third downs (eighth). Again, there were flaws and inefficiencies along the way (short-yardage running could still use some work, for instance), but when Miami was good at something in 2012, it was really good at it.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

PlayerHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsCompAttYardsComp
Rate
TDINTSacksSack Rate Yards/
Att.
Stephen Morris 6'2, 218 Sr. *** (5.6) 245 421 3,345 58.2% 21 7 16 3.7% 7.4
Ryan Williams 6'6, 223 Jr. ** (5.4) 15 20 137 75.0% 1 0 1 4.8% 6.2
Kevin Olsen 6'3, 200 Fr. **** (5.8)







Running Back

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsRushesYardsYards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TDAdj.
POE
Mike JamesRB1476214.23.06-6.3
Duke JohnsonRB5'9, 196So.***** (6.1) 139 947 6.8 8.9 10 +28.1
Stephen MorrisQB6'2, 218Sr.*** (5.6) 35 184 5.3 3.4 1 +2.8
Eduardo ClementsRB5'9, 192Sr.**** (5.8) 16 70 4.4 3.8 2 -0.4
Dallas CrawfordRB5'10, 196So.*** (5.7) 6 23 3.8 1.5 0 -0.8
Phillip DorsettWR5'9, 179Jr.*** (5.7) 5 8 1.6 3.4 0 -1.4

5. DOOOOOOOOOOOK

The Miami offensive line could be simply awesome this year. The Hurricanes ranked in the top 25 in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate a year ago, and the top six players from the line return, including two-year starting right guard Brandon Linder and former all-world recruit Seantrel Henderson. Miami faced a series of strong defensive lines in 2012 and still paved the way for Mike James and Johnson to rush for 1,568 yards in a pass-first offense. That's not bad. And despite Morris' propensity for throwing longer passes, the line helped to keep his sack rate under four percent. And now it has a wealth of experience that it just didn't have last year.

With proper time, Morris could have a lot of fun once again sending passes downfield to receivers Phillip Dorsett and Rashawn Scott and tight end Clive Walford, all three of whom averaged between 8.3 yards per target (solid) and 12.2 (great). Speedy sophomore slot receivers could also get involved, not to mention Stacy Coley, a true freshman who has drawn rave reviews this summer and early fall.

But Morris might have the most fun simply handing or dumping to Duke Johnson and watching him go. It's probably not a coincidence that things clicked for Johnson around the same time that they clicked for Miami's offense overall. Through eight games, Johnson had rushed 83 times for 455 yards (a not-terrible 5.5 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. He had shown some potential for a freshman, but he hadn't completely figured things out. And then in the last four games he rushed 56 times for 492 yards (8.8 per carry) and five more touchdowns.

He's put on some weight (of the good variety, one assumes) in the offseason, and he will shoulder as much of a load as he can this fall. He is every bit as electric as he was assumed to be coming out of high school, and if you're a college football fan, you have to be pretty excited about seeing what he can do over the course of a full season. Stay healthy, Duke.

Receiving Corps

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsTargetsCatchesYardsCatch RateYds/
Target
Target
Rate
%SDReal Yds/
Target
RYPR
Phillip DorsettWR5'9, 179Jr.*** (5.7) 101 58 842 57.4% 8.3 23.8% 67.3% 8.4 128.0
Rashawn ScottWR6'2, 203Jr.*** (5.6) 59 35 512 59.3% 8.7 13.9% 54.2% 8.9 77.8
Allen HurnsWR6'3, 195Sr.*** (5.7) 48 28 314 58.3% 6.5 11.3% 58.3% 6.5 47.7
Duke JohnsonRB5'9, 196So.***** (6.1) 40 27 221 67.5% 5.5 9.4% 52.5% 5.8 33.6
Clive WalfordTE6'4, 259Jr.*** (5.5) 37 25 451 67.6% 12.2 8.7% 70.3% 12.1 68.5
Mike JamesRB373034481.1%9.38.7%67.6%9.552.3
Davon JohnsonWR342134861.8%10.28.0%64.7%10.352.9
Herb WatersSLOT6'2, 193So.*** (5.7) 18 10 227 55.6% 12.6 4.2% 50.0% 14.3 34.5
Malcolm LewisSLOT6'0, 187So.**** (5.8) 13 8 73 61.5% 5.6 3.1% 53.8% 5.7 11.1
Kendal ThompkinsWR968966.7%9.92.1%44.4%11.113.5
Dyron DyeDE944844.4%5.32.1%77.8%4.17.3
Maurice HagensFB5'11, 250Sr.*** (5.6) 7 5 25 71.4% 3.6 1.7% 71.4% 3.5 3.8
Asante ClevelandTE6'5, 260Sr.** (5.3) 7 2 12 28.6% 1.7 1.7% 85.7% 1.2 1.8
Beau SandlandTE6'6, 255Jr.**** (5.9)








Stacy ColeyWR6'1, 180Fr.**** (5.9)








Offensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 109.6 3.113.4938.2%58.6%18.9% 146.3 2.2%5.3%
Rank 24 39347410561 25 1746
PlayerPos.Ht, Wt 2013
Year
RivalsCareer Starts/Honors/Notes
Brandon LinderRG6'6, 319Sr.**** (5.8)26 career starts
Jon FelicianoLG6'5, 320Jr.*** (5.6)20 career starts
Seantrel HendersonRT6'8, 332Sr.***** (6.1)18 career starts
Malcolm BuncheLT6'7, 327Jr.**** (5.8)13 career starts
Shane McDermottC6'4, 296Jr.*** (5.6)12 career starts
Ereck FlowersLT6'6, 315So.**** (5.8)4 career starts
Ben JonesRT1 career start
Jeremy LewisLG
Jared WheelerC6'5, 319Sr.*** (5.6)
Hunter WellsRG6'4, 310So.** (5.3)
Danny IsidoraRG6'4, 308RSFr.*** (5.7)
Taylor GadboisLT6'8, 312RSFr.*** (5.7)
Alex GallRG6'5, 304Fr.*** (5.5)
Sunny OdogwuRT6'8, 318Fr.*** (5.5)

Defense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL120748773
RUSHING114828979
PASSING105667966
Standard Downs859983
Passing Downs637061
Redzone9410474
Q1 Rk741st Down Rk84
Q2 Rk922nd Down Rk95
Q3 Rk513rd Down Rk62
Q4 Rk105

6. Bad late

Having an offense that can come through on third down, or in the fourth quarter, or near the end zone is great. It's less great, however, if your defense gives away whatever your offense gains. Miami's D ranked 105th in the fourth quarter and 94th in the red zone, which certainly meant for some exciting fourth quarters overall but definitely negated some of the offense's work.

Defensive coordinator Mark D'Onofrio followed Al Golden from Temple, but he's found it difficult to make much headway. He inherited a defense that ranked 12th in Def. F/+ in 2010, and the Hurricanes have ranked just 73rd and 88th since then. The major issues in 2012 came up front, where the defensive line dealt with quite a few injuries, couldn't get much of a push against the run, and couldn't generate any semblance of a pass rush. There's a pretty good chance that changes in 2013, but we'll see how much.

Defensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 94.8 3.013.6041.3%68.3%15.4% 61.3 2.7%3.5%
Rank 81 801009364108 117 109111
NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Shayon GreenDE6'3, 264Sr.*** (5.5) 12 52.5 6.9% 2 0 0 1 0 1
Anthony ChickilloDE6'4, 275Jr.**** (5.9) 12 37.0 4.9% 6.5 4 0 1 0 2
David Gilbert
(Wisconsin)
DE6'4, 247Sr.**** (5.8) 14 31.5 4.4% 9.5 4 0 1 3 0
Olsen PierreDE6'4, 305Jr.*** (5.5) 11 21.5 2.8% 5 1.5 0 3 2 0
Kelvin CainDE6'3, 250Sr.** (5.4) 9 10.5 1.4% 1 1 0 0 0 0
Luther RobinsonDT6'3, 303Sr.**** (5.8) 10 10.0 1.3% 0 0 0 0 0 1
Justin Renfrow
(Virginia)
DT6'6, 310Sr.*** (5.5) 12 8.0 1.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corey KingDT6'1, 292So.** (5.4) 9 9.5 1.2% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Darius SmithDT99.01.2%110000
Curtis PorterDT6'1, 316Sr.*** (5.7) 4 7.0 0.9% 2.5 0 0 0 0 0
Jalen GrimbleDL6'2, 290Jr.**** (5.8) 8 5.0 0.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Earl MooreDT6'1, 300So.*** (5.7) 12 4.5 0.6% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jelani HamiltonDT6'5, 285So.**** (5.9) 5 4.0 0.5% 1 0 0 0 0 0
David PerryDE6'7, 277So.*** (5.7)
Ufomba KamaluDL6'6, 285Jr.** (5.4)
Al-Quadin MuhammadDE6'3, 230Fr.**** (6.0)






7. Every day I'm shufflin'

In all, only three Miami defensive linemen and three linebackers played in all 12 games last year, and two of those combined six were basically reserves. The tackle position was particularly unsettled, with Luther Robinson missing two games, Corey King and Darius Smith missing three, and Curtis Porter missing eight. At linebacker, each of the top four missed at least a game, and the top two performers (Denzel Perryman, Gionni Paul) each missed three. Any team's depth would have been severely tested with shuffling like this, and Miami's defensive front barely held up.

Things will almost certainly improve up front in 2013, and there are two main reasons for that: experience and newcomers. It's tough to pull off both, but Miami has.

First, the Hurricanes return all six linemen who logged at least 9.5 tackles last year, including end Anthony Chickillo, one of the team's only decent pass rushers. Beyond that, the reinforcements have arrived. Wisconsin transfer David Gilbert, who briefly retired from the sport because of recurring foot issues, has decided to give it one last shot close to home (he's from Coral Gables). He isn't big, but he's active and immediately becomes the line's best overall play-maker. Plus, Virginia transfer Justin Renfrow, junior college transfer Ufomba Kamalu, and big-time (and skinny) freshman Al-Quadin Muhammad all join the fray as well. There is a wealth of options here, and if there is any semblance of decent injury luck, Miami's line stats could improve dramatically.

Linebackers

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Denzel PerrymanOLB6'0, 240Jr.*** (5.7) 9 54.5 7.1% 6 0 1 2 1 0
Gionni PaulOLB950.56.6%3.500210
Eddie JohnsonOLB1049.06.4%7.511230
Jimmy GainesMLB6'3, 240Sr.** (5.4) 11 45.5 6.0% 3 0 2 3 0 1
Thurston ArmbristerOLB6'3, 233Jr.NR 12 32.5 4.3% 2 0 0 0 0 0
Tyrone CornileusOLB6'2, 225Sr.*** (5.7) 12 24.5 3.2% 0 0 0 3 0 0
Raphael KirbyMLB6'0, 235So.**** (5.9) 7 12.5 1.6% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tyriq McCordOLB6'3, 235So.**** (5.9) 12 12.5 1.6% 3.5 3.5 0 1 0 1
Ramon BuchananLB28.01.0%0.500000
Jermaine GraceLB6'1, 210Fr.**** (5.8)
Alex FigueroaOLB6'3, 235Fr.NR






8. Find a pass rush

Miami's secondary isn't great. Both starting cornerbacks are gone, including Brandon McGee, easily the best overall play-maker in the unit. There is plenty of reason to think that youngsters like Rayshawn Jenkins and Tracy Howard could come into their own, along with big-hitting Deon Bush (all three are sophomores); and three more four-star freshmen are fighting for playing time in camp. But the biggest hope for improvement in the secondary could simply come in the amount of help it gets up front. Miami's pass rush was dreadful last year; it must improve. With the addition of David Gilbert (if he stays healthy), it could, but a bigger role for Tyriq McCord on passing downs could also help.

The linebacking corps managed just one sack last year; meanwhile, as a reserve true freshman defensive end, McCord recorded 3.5. After his move to outside linebacker, he's barely holding onto a second-string spot -- clearly he's still a work in progress. But he can get to the passer, and if he's at least reliable enough to get some reps in blitzing situations, that could be very good news for the defense as a whole.

Secondary

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Kacy Rodgers IIS6'2, 212Sr.*** (5.7) 12 47.0 6.2% 2 0 0 2 0 0
Brandon McGeeCB1245.56.0%412701
Deon BushS6'1, 203So.**** (5.9) 10 31.0 4.1% 1 0 0 3 3 0
Thomas FinnieCB1226.03.4%001301
A.J. HighsmithS6'0, 208Sr.*** (5.6) 12 25.0 3.3% 0 0 1 4 1 1
Ladarius GunterCB6'2, 196Jr.*** (5.5) 12 23.0 3.0% 1 0 1 6 0 2
Rayshawn JenkinsS6'1, 215So.*** (5.7) 10 23.0 3.0% 0 0 1 3 0 0
Vaughn TelemaqueS1015.02.0%000010
Tracy HowardCB5'11, 184So.***** (6.1) 12 13.5 1.8% 0 0 0 4 0 0
Nantambu-Akil FentressDB5'9, 198Jr.NR 12 11.5 1.5% 0 0 0 0 1 0
Antonio CrawfordCB5'11, 187So.*** (5.6) 12 7.0 0.9% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jordan TolsonS6'1, 195Jr.NR
Nate DortchCB5'11, 173RSFr.*** (5.5)

Corn ElderDB5'10, 173Fr.**** (5.9)

Artie BurnsDB6'0, 190Fr.**** (5.8)

Jamal CarterS6'1, 207Fr.**** (5.8)

Special Teams

PunterHt, Wt2013
Year
PuntsAvgTBFCI20FC/I20
Ratio
Dalton Botts5440.53162372.2%
Matt Goudis6'0, 172So. 1 37.0 0 0 0 0.0%
KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
KickoffsAvgTBTB%
Jake Wieclaw7159.61216.9%
Matt Goudis6'0, 172So. 2 55 0 0.0%
Place-KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
PATFG
(0-39)
PctFG
(40+)
Pct
Jake Wieclaw42-4219-2190.5%0-40.0%
ReturnerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
ReturnsAvg.TD
Duke JohnsonKR5'9, 196So. 27 33.0 2
Phillip DorsettKR5'9, 179Jr. 11 22.8 0
Malcolm LewisKR6'0, 187So. 1 39.0 0
Phillip DorsettPR5'9, 179Jr. 15 5.7 0
CategoryRk
Special Teams F/+17
Net Punting66
Net Kickoffs94
Touchback Pct114
Field Goal Pct43
Kick Returns Avg2
Punt Returns Avg95

9. How many touches can Duke take?

I will once again refer to a quote from Oregon's Mark Helfrich:

I've said a bunch of times that you never wanna know the limit on carries your tailback can have, because that means they're hurt.

Helfrich was, of course, referring to his own tailback and return specialist, De'Anthony Thomas. But it's the same concept for Duke Johnson, the closest thing to a DAT in the state of Florida. If he can handle life as both a featured running back and return man, Miami would be wise to use him as often as possible. But that's a lot of hits for a frame that, while bigger, is still pretty small overall.

Johnson's success in the kick return game distracted from the fact that, overall, Miami's special teams unit has quite a few holes. Jake Wieclaw was strong on kicks under 40 yards, but he's gone, as is a decent punter in Dalton Botts. And Miami's kick coverage was far from strong last year.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
DateOpponentProj. Rk
30-AugFlorida Atlantic118
7-SepFlorida5
21-SepSavannah StateNR
28-Sepat South Florida67
5-OctGeorgia Tech32
17-Octat North Carolina29
26-OctWake Forest81
2-Novat Florida State19
9-NovVirginia Tech23
16-Novat Duke88
23-NovVirginia71
29-Novat Pittsburgh35
Five-Year F/+ Rk33
Two-Year Recruiting Rk26
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*+7 / +12.8
TO Luck/Game-2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)18 (11, 7)
Yds/Pt Margin**-1.9

10. Hello (again), world

If Miami is eligible for the postseason (and again, we should know relatively soon), one can certainly begin to see how a decent bowl game and a trip to the ACC title game (with a chance at an even better bowl game) could be in the works here.

Miami's defensive flaws have not been completely ironed out, and we don't know how a new offensive coordinator will pull the strings for an offense that was both distinctive and, at times, shaky last year. But if Miami can approach the top-30 or 35 level again in 2013, there are games to be won. The Hurricanes face six teams projected 67th or worse and get Florida, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech at home. And a season-ending trip to Pittsburgh isn't intimidating, either.

For all we know, the Shapiro cloud could ruin Miami's 2013 plans when all is said and done, but really, whether it does or not, Al Golden has done an incredible job of maintaining hope for the program as a whole. Momentum on the field picked up late in 2012, and there's a decent chance that the Hurricanes can continue that this fall, postseason or no postseason.

More from SB Nation:

The developing Johnny Manziel autographs scandal

Bill Connelly’s ACC preview series is underway

NCAA admits jersey-sale store was a bad idea

Official Coaches Poll Top 25 is out, led by Alabama and the SEC

Projecting every 2013 college football conference race

Today’s college football news headlines

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Ealy's ceiling is sky high

$
0
0

Kony Ealy

#47 | 6'5, 275, Jr. | New Madrid, MO

2011: 12 games, 9.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks
2012: 12 games, 27.0 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 PBU, 1 FF, 5 QB hurries

Bill C.: Kony Ealy is capable of complete and total dominance. He is as physically gifted for the end position as his cousin-or-whateverSheldon Richardson is for tackle. He was the best player on the field during last season's Arizona State game, and it wasn't particularly close.

Arizona State lines up with a single running back beside Kelly, trips to his left and one receiver to his right. At the snap Missouri only brings 4 rushes but boy do they cause some damage. Missouri's right end Kony Ealy absolutely destroy's ASU's left tackle and knocks him to the ground. You really don't see a left tackle get thrown completely on his back on a bull rush that often. […]

In four plays, Kony Ealy has already made his presence known to anyone watching this game. ASU runs a zone read out of an offset pistol formation. The wing back lined up on the right is tasked with coming down across the formation and blocking Ealy. Let's just say he doesn't.

The offensive line gets great push against the rest of Missouri's defensive, line and there is certainly some running room there. However, because Ealy has crashed so well on the running back and blown everything up, Kelly must pull the ball and run outside, where the linebacker comes up to make a tackle for no gain. […]

Who shows up again to make a play for Missouri's defense? Kony Ealy. The tight end to the left side is tasked with blocking down on Kony Ealy and sealing off any penetration. He doesn't have to drive him back, just prevent him from getting into the backfield. Unfortunately, Ealy shoots through the gap left by the pulling tackle and just overpowers the tight end.

Arizona State was his finest moment, but after six games, Ealy had racked up a mighty impressive 6.5 tackles for loss and was well on his way toward leading the team (one that featured Sheldon Richardson) in sacks and tackles for loss.

Then, over the next five games, Ealy had 1.5 tackles for loss. He didn't disappear, exactly, but ... he kind of disappeared. Let's put it this way: The narrative from the Syracuse game has been "Sheldon Richardson got himself suspended, and therefore Mizzou didn't have any pass rush and couldn't get to Ryan Nassib." Kony Ealy was still on the field, but by the Syracuse game, he had blended into the scenery. If I remember right, he had a hand in rushing Nassib on an interception, but when Mizzou needed someone to make a play, Mizzou's most physically blessed defender wasn't really doing much.

Because of his ridiculous potential, Ealy still got a third-to-fourth round evaluation from the NFL's draft advisory board this offseason; but the second half of last season proved that to move into the fourth round, he will have to do what his cousin-or-whatever did last year: bring it in every game.

And my goodness, if Ealy becomes a Sheldon at End, basically, the prospects for this defense go sky high. The front seven will have a star alongside steady, exciting veterans like Michael Sam and Andrew Wilson, the new tackle rotation will benefit from the opposing line having to account for Ealy, and the new starting defensive backs won't have to guard their men quite as long with quarterbacks under relatively consistent pressure. Ealy's ceiling is the highest on the defense, and the closer he comes to reaching it, the higher he makes Mizzou's ceiling as well.

MizzouRugby: Kony 2012 was full of spurts and sputters, but when he was on, it was pure dominance. With another year under his belt, Ealy is my pick to be the next star on the MU D-Line.

The Beef: Ealy NEEDS to be the next star on this team in my opinion. Given his athletic gifts, it is time to put the package together. While it is quite a bridge to jump, I think Mizzou has a great year if we are worried about losing Ealy come this spring.

countrycal: Every year it seems we have someone just burst out of camp ready to have a HUGE year – I pick the man who is packing 275 super hamburgers on a 6’5" frame to be the one this year. He has all the tools, and he had the taste of some success last year. This is the time to put himself on everyone’s watch list against SEC competition. I think he’ll do it.


2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Michael Sam's motor is nearly unmatched

$
0
0

Michael Sam

#52 | 6'2, 255, Sr. | Hitchcock, TX

2010: 13 games, 17.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF, 2 QB hurries
2011: 13 games, 22.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU, 4 QB hurries
2012: 12 games, 15.5 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 FF, 1 FR, 4 QB hurries

Bill C.:

Michael Sam was everywhere. I'd love to think of him as a "15 tackles for loss" kind of guy, but I don't think he is; he's more like a better Stryker Sulak, a sideline-to-sideline linebacker who happens to line up with his hand on the ground. Kony Ealy will be the TFLs guy for the most part, but Michael Sam is Missouri's best overall defensive end.

I wrote that after the spring game. Fewer than four months later, I've shifted back to assuming Kony Ealy is the best DE on the team.

It's easy to underestimate Michael Sam. He's not very physically imposing (though he's definitely gotten bigger through the years), and he isn't blessed with as much natural (or physical) talent as others. But he might have the best motor on the team. And as he proved against UCF, when he crushed quarterback Blake Bortles on a fourth-and-goal attempt late in the half, he's as capable as anybody on this defense of making a big play in a key moment. And despite their respective reputations, he ended up with more sacks in 2012 than Kony Ealy did.

If you could put Michael Sam's motor into Kony Ealy, you'd basically have Jarvis Jones. As it stands, the two entities are separate. But that isn't a bad thing. As it stands, Mizzou has a solid pair of ends that, with Sam entering his senior season and Ealy trying to make a big splash for the draft, could be Mizzou's best pair of ends in a while.

MizzouRugby: Another solid DE, hopefully he can be the bookend to Ealy and help create some space for the DTs.

The Beef: I’d love nothing more than for Sam to work his way into getting his name called that weekend in April if we are talking about the draft. Though always seeming small to me, he seems to make plays, and that is all you can ask for. Right now, it is somewhat thin behind him, so he is going to have to make quite a few this year.

countrycal: He has had experience, and tasted success. I’ve got to think Sam rounds out a decent college career with a strong season of joining Ealy in creating havoc in opposing backfields. Last year was an anomally; I’m looking for the SEC to see some serious Steckled defense.

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Mizzou has strong starters, shaky depth at DE

$
0
0

In Michael Sam and Kony Ealy, Mizzou has a pair of good to very good starters. Do the Tigers have a bench? That might be an important detail since both Sam and Ealy could be gone in 2014.

Kony Ealy

#47 | 6'5, 275, Jr. | New Madrid, MO

2011: 12 games, 9.5 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sacks
2012: 12 games, 27.0 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 PBU, 1 FF, 5 QB hurries

Bill C.: Kony Ealy is capable of complete and total dominance. He is as physically gifted for the end position as his cousin-or-whateverSheldon Richardson is for tackle. He was the best player on the field during last season's Arizona State game, and it wasn't particularly close.

Arizona State lines up with a single running back beside Kelly, trips to his left and one receiver to his right. At the snap Missouri only brings 4 rushes but boy do they cause some damage. Missouri's right end Kony Ealy absolutely destroy's ASU's left tackle and knocks him to the ground. You really don't see a left tackle get thrown completely on his back on a bull rush that often. […]

In four plays, Kony Ealy has already made his presence known to anyone watching this game. ASU runs a zone read out of an offset pistol formation. The wing back lined up on the right is tasked with coming down across the formation and blocking Ealy. Let's just say he doesn't.

The offensive line gets great push against the rest of Missouri's defensive, line and there is certainly some running room there. However, because Ealy has crashed so well on the running back and blown everything up, Kelly must pull the ball and run outside, where the linebacker comes up to make a tackle for no gain. […]

Who shows up again to make a play for Missouri's defense? Kony Ealy. The tight end to the left side is tasked with blocking down on Kony Ealy and sealing off any penetration. He doesn't have to drive him back, just prevent him from getting into the backfield. Unfortunately, Ealy shoots through the gap left by the pulling tackle and just overpowers the tight end.

Arizona State was his finest moment, but after six games, Ealy had racked up a mighty impressive 6.5 tackles for loss and was well on his way toward leading the team (one that featured Sheldon Richardson) in sacks and tackles for loss.

Then, over the next five games, Ealy had 1.5 tackles for loss. He didn't disappear, exactly, but ... he kind of disappeared. Let's put it this way: The narrative from the Syracuse game has been "Sheldon Richardson got himself suspended, and therefore Mizzou didn't have any pass rush and couldn't get to Ryan Nassib." Kony Ealy was still on the field, but by the Syracuse game, he had blended into the scenery. If I remember right, he had a hand in rushing Nassib on an interception, but when Mizzou needed someone to make a play, Mizzou's most physically blessed defender wasn't really doing much.

Because of his ridiculous potential, Ealy still got a third-to-fourth round evaluation from the NFL's draft advisory board this offseason; but the second half of last season proved that to move into the fourth round, he will have to do what his cousin-or-whatever did last year: bring it in every game.

And my goodness, if Ealy becomes a Sheldon at End, basically, the prospects for this defense go sky high. The front seven will have a star alongside steady, exciting veterans like Michael Sam and Andrew Wilson, the new tackle rotation will benefit from the opposing line having to account for Ealy, and the new starting defensive backs won't have to guard their men quite as long with quarterbacks under relatively consistent pressure. Ealy's ceiling is the highest on the defense, and the closer he comes to reaching it, the higher he makes Mizzou's ceiling as well.

MizzouRugby: Kony 2012 was full of spurts and sputters, but when he was on, it was pure dominance. With another year under his belt, Ealy is my pick to be the next star on the MU D-Line.

The Beef: Ealy NEEDS to be the next star on this team in my opinion. Given his athletic gifts, it is time to put the package together. While it is quite a bridge to jump, I think Mizzou has a great year if we are worried about losing Ealy come this spring.

countrycal: Every year it seems we have someone just burst out of camp ready to have a HUGE year – I pick the man who is packing 275 super hamburgers on a 6’5" frame to be the one this year. He has all the tools, and he had the taste of some success last year. This is the time to put himself on everyone’s watch list against SEC competition. I think he’ll do it.

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Shane Ray's got bloodlines, speed, and the chance to be DE #1 in 2014

$
0
0

Shane Ray

#56 | 6'3, 245, So. | Kansas City, MO

2012: 12 games, 12.0 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 1 FR, 3 QB hurries

Bill C.: When Shane Ray made a play last year, it wasn't an accident. An undersized 235 or so last year, Ray was not big enough to be an every-down presence, but some of his best plays last year were against the run: stuffing Georgia running back Todd Gurley for a three-yard loss early, bringing down Florida's Mike Gillislee for a loss of one late in the first quarter, and merging with Sheldon Richardson to bring down Tennessee's Raijon Neal in the backfield late in the first quarter. But he didn't make many other plays, and while he's put on a few more pounds, consistency is the biggest issue for Ray moving forward. But of course it is; he's a sophomore.

Really, Shane Ray's biggest job in 2013 is to get ready for 2014. He's likely the No. 1 backup this year, but with Michael Sam gone and Kony Ealy potentially leaving with a good draft evaluation, No. 1 backup becomes No. 1 starter next fall. One could see him becoming valuable in a speed-rushing role (or speed-run defending, I guess), as his father Wendell did a few decades ago for Mizzou; but what we'll be looking for from the younger Ray this fall is simple consistency, the ability to spell either Ealy or Sam without much of a dropoff in production, the ability to stand up to run blocking and do more than log an occasional QB hurry on passing downs. He's got speed and a motor; now he needs to become a true defensive end.

The Beef: Good blood lines with this young man, he is going to need to make the next step and become someone upon which the Tigers can count this year. In the end, the Defensive End unit is probably the one which gives me the most pause, so after Sam and Ealy, we need at least another 1-2 people to step up and prove their worth. No reason Ray cant be one of those people.

MizzouRugby: A very good RSFr outing last year, hopefully he can push Ealy and Ray for some playing time. Wouldn’t mind if Ray took over the role of Culver on special teams.

countrycal: Shane plays with a lot of fire and sports a True Son pedigree. Look for him to use this year to stake out a lot of expectations for his junior and senior seasons. He should get his share or more of playing time this year – plan on seeing him in the opponents’ backfield from time to time.

2013 Mizzou Walkthrough: Who snags the other spot at second-string end?

$
0
0

Brayden Burnett

#55 | 6'2, 245, Sr. | Southlake, TX

2010: 13 games, 4.5 tackles
2011: 12 games, 12.0 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 FF, 1 QB hurry
2012: 12 games, 4.5 tackles

Bill C.: Brayden Burnett has been a strong special teams guy for a while now, and his 2011 stats were much, much better than I remembered. He was surpassed by Shane Ray last year, however, and now he has to hold off a rising junior to maintain his spot on the second string.

If there's a problem with Burnett, it's that he's not particularly great at any one thing. He isn't any bigger (or faster) than Shane Ray or Markus Golden, and while his motor seems fine, it's no better than Ray's or Michael Sam's. He has been a serviceable player who by all accounts enjoys Mizzou and will finish as a senior leader. It's just hard to say he'll see the field much. But if he can hold off Golden, he'll get some reps.

MizzouRugby: Burnett and Golden will be fighting for the fourth DE spot. Has experience from last year, hopefully that makes helps him to think less and play more.

The Beef: Ah, good ol’ Southlake, Texas. It will forever make me smile. It seems like Burnett has been someone around awhile (which is true) and also someone whose name is called from time to time. I agree with Rugby that he and Golden will be fighting for time, and while I appreciate Brayden's commitment to the team, I think it will end up being Golden who sees the time.

countrycal: When I think of depth I think of players like Burnett, who could play more than he does and not hurt you, but may not have have the skill set that says "you have to get me on the field somehow." You can’t have too many defensive ends on the bench who can step in at any given time and hold down the spot even if they may not make a lot of headlines.

Markus Golden

#33 | 6'3, 260, Jr. | St. Louis, MO

2012: 12 games, 8.0 tackles

Bill C.: Golden took a JUCO detour before arriving in Columbia as a redshirt sophomore linebacker last year. We never heard anything about any intention to move him to defensive end at first, but apparently he just kept putting on good weight, so the staff made the move. He is a pretty rare athlete -- he was a special teams star last year, always near the return man, but despite the speed that requires, he's also big enough to play end. Hell, he's even bigger than Michael Sam.

Golden will be the second-most experienced end on the roster next year; if he were to carve out a niche on the second string this year, that would only mean good things for the Tigers moving forward, even if it means less good things for Brayden Burnett.

MizzouRugby: Potential is there, let’s hope he can show it on the field, if he can beat out Burnett.

The Beef: I think Golden does beat out Burnett.  I think he is an impressive specimen and I am excited to see where he has landed on the chart (MUTigers has him at 260). I don't know how his skill and technique are, but I dont expect much beyond a bull-rushing monster out of my 2nd string DE.

countrycal: Golden may, indeed, get more playing time than Burnett, or even challenge Shane Ray for time. He’s got the size and tools and may well play his way into a better spot on the depth chart by the time Murray State rolls around.

Rickey Hatley

#95 | 6'4, 270, RSFr. | Atlanta, TX

The Beef: At 6’4, 270, Hatley has some impressive size. I don't know if DE is a stop-over on his way to DT in another year, but perhaps Hatley sees time when we need to go more of a jumbo package. Or maybe we just don't see him on the field this year.

countrycal: We definitely will see Hatley on the field (a lot, in my opinion). I just don’t know whether or not it will be this year. Like The Beef, I suspect he may be destined for an inside position if his strength grows with his weight. Nice to have someone like this in the wings.

Bill C.: It will be interesting to see what becomes of players like Hatley and the guy below him on this list in the future. We're used to guys bulking up, then moving to tackle once they reach about 280 or so. But the general SEC stereotype is that you need a bigger front four; if Hatley and/or Loud are quick enough to stick at end, that might be a good thing. But only if they're quick enough.

Marcus Loud

#35 | 6'4, 270, Fr. | Houston, TX

The Beef: Learning from Ealy is not a bad idea. Loud’s recruitment and path was a strange one, but I am glad he is here and supposedly there were some stories about him from the summer and others on the O-line having trouble blocking him. I don't expect him to play, but he is going to be important depth (especially with Sam graduating at the very least).

MizzouRugby: Get ready for 2014, and learn from Ealy.

countrycal: I agree with Rugby, good looking prospect but will probably sit this year unless he really tears it up in camp.

Charles Harris

#91 | 6'3, 235, Fr. | Kansas City, MO

MizzouRugby: RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! RUDY!

The Beef: So I believe the story on Harris is that he comes from a crappy football program in KC and has not been playing football for that long, but is some sort of ridiculous athlete. I’d love to see him unleashed in about 2015 or so after learning the game for a couple of years.

Bill C.: Man oh man, would it be neat to see Harris thrive after the Internet freak-out that proceeded his out-of-nowhere signing last February.

countrycal: Remember Aldon Smith’s freshman year. Kid comes out of nowhere and becomes the talk of the camp, only to be redshirted on a technicality (if I remember correctly). I wouldn’t mind if Harris could follow that path.

2013 NC State football's 10 things to know: Perfect mediocrity and a light home schedule

$
0
0

Confused? Check out the glossary here.

1. Perfectly average, Part II

I may have been a little quick on the trigger in naming Washington the most perfectly average team in the country.

In the Adj. Points measure I use below, the idea is to take a team's performance in a given week and gauge what would have happened if that team had played a perfectly average opponent that week instead of whoever it played. It is an attempt to adjust for schedule and look at a team's in-season trends. But really, it could also be titled "WashingtonScore." because Washington has spent most of the last eight seasons as an almost perfectly average team.

Now, to be sure, Washington has been amazingly average, ranking between 50th and 78th in seven of the last eight seasons. But if you take out NC State's random 2010 peak (22nd and 9-4), the Wolfpack have ranked 65th, 64th, 50th, 64th, 58th, and 63rd from 2006-12. That's ... well, that's average.

In six years under Tom O'Brien, NC State went 40-35, building at least a little bit of momentum (16-21 first three years, 24-14 next three) but evidently not enough to buy O'Brien a seventh year. Averaging an 8-5 record, as the Wolfpack did over the previous three years, is certainly not bad for a program that hasn't been a consistent top-25 presence for quite a while.

But it's not necessarily something you aspire to; neither is "average," and almost everything about O'Brien's tenure was average.

2. MACtion road show

So now State starts fresh with a MAC transplant. Dave Doeren has taken the fast track to success; 13 years ago, Doeren was Montana's defensive backs coach. Just six years later, he was named Bret Bielema's defensive co-coordinator at Wisconsin. Five years later, he was named head coach at Northern Illinois. And two years later, at age 41, he's a BCS head coach. His last two Wisconsin defenses ranked in the Def. F/+ top-30, and in inheriting an 11-win conference runner-up from Jerry Kill at NIU, he didn't do much to change the program's trajectory. He went 22-6, won two conference titles, reached the MAC's first BCS bowl, and in 2012, fielded a legitimately strong, top-35 team.

We don't know Dave Doeren's ceiling yet because he hasn't reached it. He grew into previous jobs, and he didn't take long to do the same in his first head coaching position. He is tasked with taking NC State somewhere it really hasn't been in a while. The Wolfpack have had randomly good seasons -- 9-4 in 2010, 11-3 in 2002, 34-14-1 from 1991-94 -- but haven't been consistently strong for a while. He inherits a roster that is intriguing but thin, and it's conceivable that, before successfully bringing MACtion-level excitement and wins to Raleigh, he's in for another growing-into-the-job experience.

2012 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 63
DateOpponentScoreW-LAdj. ScoreAdj. W-L
31-Augvs. Tennessee21-35L22.0 - 28.4L
8-Sepat Connecticut10-7W20.7 - 21.1L
15-SepSouth Alabama31-7W25.9 - 29.1L
22-SepThe Citadel52-14W35.0 - 32.1W
29-Sepat Miami37-44L36.8 - 34.0W
6-OctFlorida State17-16W31.9 - 16.9W
20-Octat Maryland20-18W22.9 - 39.1L
27-Octat North Carolina35-43L36.2 - 25.9W
3-NovVirginia6-33L13.1 - 31.6L
10-NovWake Forest37-6W24.4 - 10.4W
17-Novat Clemson48-62L36.3 - 33.7W
24-NovBoston College27-10W16.9 - 20.3L
31-Decvs. Vanderbilt24-38L38.6 - 15.4W
CategoryOffenseRkDefenseRk
Points Per Game28.17125.652
Adj. Points Per Game27.86926.044

3. One goes up, one goes down

Aside from a first-quarter slump versus Tennessee, NC State's defense was a rock early in 2012, allowing just 28 points to three bad offenses (UConn, South Alabama, The Citadel) and only 13 points to Tennessee in the final three quarters. But the offense wasn't good enough to keep up with the Vols, and it barely produced enough to get by UConn. As the year went on, the offense improved and the defense regressed. And then the offense regressed while the defense improved again.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 26.2, NC State 22.9 (minus-3.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): NC State 32.6, Opponent 29.6 (plus-3.0)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): NC State 25.9, Opponent 22.3 (plus-3.6)

It was just one of those seasons. Aside from the second half of the Florida State game, both units rarely played well at the same time. And the result was, as you would expect, average.

Offense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL48575857
RUSHING11010075107
PASSING18444745
Standard Downs495249
Passing Downs727471
Redzone534058
Q1 Rk461st Down Rk50
Q2 Rk922nd Down Rk97
Q3 Rk393rd Down Rk28
Q4 Rk55

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2013 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

PlayerHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsCompAttYardsComp
Rate
TDINTSacksSack Rate Yards/
Att.
Mike Glennon3305644,03158.5%3117366.0%6.3
Manny Stocker 6'1, 212 So. *** (5.5) 0 2 0 0.0% 0 0 3 60.0% -2.8
Brandon Mitchell
(2012 Arkansas)
6'4, 239 Sr. *** (5.7) 2 8 45 25.0% 1 0 1 11.1% 4.9
Pete Thomas
(2011 Colorado State)
6'6, 234 Jr. **** (5.8) 161 261 1,607 61.7% 7 8 27 9.4% 5.0

4. Transfer derby

Incumbent quarterbacks are often assets for new coaches, but sometimes a lot of new blood at once isn't a bad thing either. As morbidly interesting as it may have been to see Mike Glennon attempting to be Doeren's new Jordan Lynch, running and passing almost equally, it might have been for the best to start fresh.

There is a lot of new blood at quarterback this year. Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas came to Raleigh to play for Tom O'Brien, but he showed a little bit of mobility in Fort Collins. And at Arkansas, Brandon Mitchell showed enough mobility that the Hogs moved him to receiver for a while. It appears that while Thomas began fall camp ahead of Mitchell and everybody else, Mitchell has caught up quickly.

New offensive coordinator Matt Canada has gotten used to adjusting his system to the talent at hand. After working with Lynch at NIU in 2011, he became Wisconsin's offensive coordinator last season and worked with a pro-style passer at the start of the season (Danny O'Brien), more of a conservative, dual-threat type at the end (Curt Phillips), and an in-between in between (Joel Stave). It does appear that Doeren and Canada do enjoy a bit of mobility at the quarterback position, so that might help to explain why Mitchell is becoming an appealing option.

Running Back

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsRushesYardsYards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Carry
TDAdj.
POE
Shadrach ThorntonRB6'1, 203So.*** (5.6) 154 694 4.5 3.2 3 -6.6
Tony CreecyRB5'11, 210Jr.**** (5.8) 127 476 3.7 3.0 5 -0.4
Brandon BarnesRB441252.82.11-9.3
Mustafa GreeneRB281013.62.20-1.7
James WashingtonRB27772.93.01-3.3
Mike GlennonQB20783.93.02-0.4
Milton HallRB5'9, 200Jr.NR 7 49 7.0 3.4 0 -0.4
Tobais PalmerWR7608.616.70+1.8
Matt DayesRB5'9, 213Fr.*** (5.7)





Josh MercerRB5'11, 191Fr.*** (5.6)





5. Finding a running game

Between Doeren and Canada, the odds are good that NC State will look to run the ball as much as it is able to do. Unfortunately, the Wolfpack weren't that able in 2012; they ranked just 100th in Rushing S&P+, with minimal ability to either break off a big play or keep Mike Glennon out of obvious passing situations. If there's quality to be found here, Doeren and Canada will probably unearth it, but it's hard to get too excited about anything regarding this running game.

Shadrach Thornton (suspended for the season opener) and Tony Creecy showed next to no explosiveness on the rare opportunity that they got to the second level of the defense, and the line is now tasked with replacing four two-year (or more) starters who combined for 137 career starts. Now, because of injuries and shuffling, NC State still returns four players with starting experience (41 career starts), including former five-star recruit Rob Crisp.

But this line was average at best last year, and there's nothing saying it will be any better this time around, especially since new offensive line coach Mike Uremovich is in his first year of coaching the offensive line. Sometimes you can just assume certain coaches are going to have quality lines; we have no data for assuming anything, good or bad, of Uremovich.

Receiving Corps

PlayerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
RivalsTargetsCatchesYardsCatch RateYds/
Target
Target
Rate
%SDReal Yds/
Target
RYPR
Quintin PaytonWR-X6'4, 212Sr.*** (5.5) 86 51 798 59.3% 9.3 15.9% 64.0% 9.3 93.3
Tobais PalmerWR835478165.1%9.415.3%69.9%9.691.3
Bryan UnderwoodWR-F5'9, 180Jr.*** (5.7) 83 44 620 53.0% 7.5 15.3% 54.2% 7.8 72.5
Mario CarterTE543436763.0%6.810.0%61.1%6.842.9
Tony CreecyRB5'11, 210Jr.**** (5.8) 51 34 182 66.7% 3.6 9.4% 41.2% 3.9 21.3
Shadrach ThorntonRB6'1, 203So.*** (5.6) 46 30 274 65.2% 6.0 8.5% 54.3% 5.8 32.0
Asa WatsonTE6'3, 237Sr.*** (5.5) 42 24 282 57.1% 6.7 7.8% 64.3% 6.7 33.0
Rashard SmithWR-Z5'9, 177Sr.** (5.4) 33 19 315 57.6% 9.5 6.1% 48.5% 9.0 36.8
Charlie HegedusWR-X6'2, 210So.*** (5.5) 16 9 116 56.3% 7.3 3.0% 31.3% 6.5 13.6
Logan WinklesFB6'1, 260Jr.*** (5.6) 16 10 90 62.5% 5.6 3.0% 62.5% 5.6 10.5
James WashingtonRB1385861.5%4.52.4%38.5%3.86.8
Maurice MorganWR-F6'2, 226So.*** (5.5)








David J. GrinnageTE6'5, 267RSFr.** (5.4)








Johnathan AlstonWR6'3, 203Fr.*** (5.6)








Jumichael RamosWR6'3, 198Fr.*** (5.6)








Bra'Lon CherryWR-Z5'11, 180Fr.*** (5.5)








6. So can they pass then?

So if running is an issue, will State have the pieces to pass in 2013? Both Mitchell and Thomas are probably more adept than their previous passing experience would suggest -- Mitchell was tossed into an awful experience at Arkansas last year, throwing a few passes while spending most of the year as a receiver, while Thomas just had no weapons whatsoever in 2011 at CSU -- but what about the receiving corps? It might be rather underrated, actually.

The Wolfpack didn't have amazing depth at receiver, but the pieces they did have were pretty strong; they weren't strong enough to prevent Glennon from throwing 17 interceptions, often into coverage (and since interceptions don't have target data attached to them, the picks make these players' catch rates look a bit better than they were), but in Quintin Payton, State returns a No. 1 receiver who averaged a healthy 9.3 yards per target. Bryan Underwood averaged a decent 7.5, and reserve Rashard Smith averaged 9.5. The O'Brien offense saw a ton of dump-offs to the running back, and those passes tended to go nowhere last year (Creecy and Thornton combined to average just 4.7 yards per target), but the receivers themselves were relatively impressive.

Still, you have to avoid passing downs to pass consistently and effectively, and this run game might put Mitchell, Thomas, or whoever into quite a few second- or third-and-longs.

Offensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 102.7 2.722.9535.1%64.4%18.8% 87.3 6.9%5.7%
Rank 62 93831038558 77 10249
PlayerPos.Ht, Wt 2013
Year
RivalsCareer Starts/Honors/Notes
R.J. MattesLG43 career starts; 2012 2nd All-ACC
Camden WentzC39 career starts
Zach AllenRG31 career starts
Andrew WallaceRG24 career starts
Duran ChristopheLG6'5, 300Sr.*** (5.5)18 career starts
Tyson ChandlerRT6'7, 334Jr.**** (5.8)12 career starts
Rob CrispLT6'7, 300Sr.***** (6.1)11 career starts
Cam FordhamRG6'2, 294Jr.*** (5.6)1 career start
Quincy McKinneyLT
Joe ThuneyC6'5, 286So.*** (5.5)
Andy JomantasRT6'7, 297Jr.** (5.2)
Alex BarrRG6'7, 326So.*** (5.5)
Bryce KennedyG6'3, 310RSFr.*** (5.7)
Jon Tu'utaC6'2, 311RSFr.** (5.3)
Tylar ReaganOL6'5, 298Fr.*** (5.7)
Cole BlankenshipLG6'2, 290Fr.*** (5.5)

Defense

CategoryYards/
Game Rk
S&P+ RkSuccess
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL69584372
RUSHING53888590
PASSING85392059
Standard Downs768079
Passing Downs371168
Redzone728366
Q1 Rk901st Down Rk80
Q2 Rk182nd Down Rk53
Q3 Rk793rd Down Rk35
Q4 Rk43

Defensive Line

CategoryAdj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team 93.3 2.673.3238.2%61.3%23.0% 113.8 6.4%6.4%
Rank 88 2669562519 42 1862
NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
T.Y. McGillDT6'1, 293Jr.** (5.4) 13 32.5 4.3% 10.5 5 0 0 1 0
Thomas TealNT6'1, 303Jr.*** (5.7) 13 28.5 3.8% 7.5 1.5 0 0 0 0
Darryl Cato-BishopDE6'3, 286Sr.** (5.4) 13 28.0 3.7% 10.5 6.5 0 1 0 0
Art NormanDE6'0, 250Jr.** (5.4) 13 27.5 3.7% 8 5.5 0 0 1 0
Brian SlayDE1221.02.8%620311
A.J. FergusonNT6'2, 301Sr.*** (5.5) 11 8.0 1.1% 2 2 0 0 1 0
McKay FrandsenDE136.00.8%100000
Mike RoseDE6'3, 252So.*** (5.6) 13 6.0 0.8% 1 0 0 0 0 0
Carlos GrayDT6'3, 296So.*** (5.5) 11 5.5 0.7% 0 0 0 1 0 1
Forrest WestDE6'1, 251Sr.NR 6 2.5 0.3% 1 1 0 2 0 0
K'Hadree HookerDT6'0, 307RSFr.*** (5.7)

Monty NelsonDT6'2, 310Fr.*** (5.7)

Kenton GibbsDT6'2, 290Fr.*** (5.7)






7. Weakness is strength

O'Brien and company tried to keep things pretty aggressive on defense, but it was a lot more difficult to do that after two awesome linebackers -- Audie Cole and Terrell Manning, who combined for 28 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, 12 passes defensed, and eight forced fumbles in 2011 -- left. State's Adj. Sack Rate fell from 16th to 42nd, and a defense that made a living on picks in 2011 didn't reel in quite as many. (This was expected, of course: David Amersen picked off 13 of his 18 defensed passes in 2011, which unsustainable. That ratio dropped to a still strong five of 17 in 2012.) Thirty-nine takeaways in 2011 became 24 in 2012. Considering turnovers are worth, on average, about five points of field position, that's nearly six points per game that State wasn't benefiting from in 2012.

That said, the pass defense was still a relative strength for NC State; the Wolfpack's biggest problems came up front, where they ranked 88th in both Rushing S&P+ and Adj. Line Yards. They still made plays behind the line -- they were 10th in the country in tackles for loss -- but allowed too many opportunities to opposing rushers.

To the extent that experience can help this, experience will help this. The top four linemen, and five of the top six, return. Ends Darryl Cato-Bishop and Art Norman combined for 12 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss last season, and tackles T.Y. McGill and Thomas Teal combined for 18.0 TFLs themselves. New defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable (yes, Huxtable) led a Pittsburgh unit that was at least a little bit less all-or-nothing on the ground, and if he can teach these upperclassmen some control, good things could happen, and a weakness could become a strength. And while Rickey Dowdy was a hell of a play-maker at linebacker, there should be enough returning talent at linebacker to do well, as long as the LBs aren't asked to clean up quite as many messes.

Linebackers

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Rickey DowdyWLB1367.59.0%16.53.50202
Sterling LucasMLB1359.57.9%5.521201
Rodman NoelSLB6'4, 221Jr.**** (5.8) 12 36.5 4.9% 6 1 0 1 0 0
Brandon PittmanWLB6'2, 224Jr.*** (5.5) 13 28.0 3.7% 4 1 0 0 0 0
D.J. Green (2011)SLB6'4, 228Sr.*** (5.5) 7 24.5 3.6% 5 1 1 4 0 0
Zach GentryMLB6'1, 233Sr.NR 13 5.0 0.7% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan CheekMLB6'0, 235Sr.*** (5.5) 11 3.0 0.4% 0 0 0 0 0 0
M.J. SalahuddinMLB6'2, 227So.*** (5.6) 12 2.0 0.3% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ernie RobinsonLB6'1, 227RSFr.NR 4 1.0 0.1% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Drew DavisWLB6'3, 232RSFr.** (5.4)

Jerod FernandezLB6'1, 226Fr.*** (5.6)






Secondary

NamePosHt, Wt2013
Year
RivalsGPTackles% of TeamTFLSacksIntPBUFFFR
Earl WolffSS1397.012.9%402711
Brandan BishopFS1387.011.6%303721
Dontae JohnsonCB6'2, 195Sr.*** (5.5) 13 61.0 8.1% 6 1 0 8 1 0
David AmersonCB1354.57.3%1051200
Juston BurrisCB6'1, 206So.*** (5.6) 13 39.0 5.2% 3 1 3 6 0 0
C.J. WilsonCB910.51.4%0.501111
Hakim JonesSS6'2, 202So.*** (5.5) 13 7.0 0.9% 0 0 1 0 0 0
Josh StanleyFS6'0, 198So.NR 13 3.5 0.5% 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jarvis ByrdFS5'11, 183Sr.**** (5.8)


Tim BuckleySS6'0, 200So.** (5.4)
Niles ClarkCB5'11, 188RSFr.*** (5.6)

J.J. JonesS6'3, 206RSFr.*** (5.6)

Marchez CoatesCB5'10, 178RSFr.*** (5.5)


Jack TochoCB6'1, 195Fr.*** (5.6)
Sean PaulCB5'10, 184Fr.*** (5.6)






8. Strength is weakness

The secondary was, like the line, a bit too prone to give up big plays in 2012, but it still led a pretty efficient life overall. Considering the regression in the pass rush, the defensive backs held their own alright.

Of course, a lot of that "holding their own" was done by safeties Earl Wolff and Brandan Bishop and, yes, corner David Amerson. The three combined for eight tackles for loss, 10 interceptions, 26 passes defensed, and three forced fumbles; that's a lot of production, enough to offset some of the big plays. Like the linebackers, they were asked to do too much (Wolff and Bishop alone recorded nearly one-quarter of State's tackles), but they were solid. And now they're gone.

While corners Dontae Johnson and Juston Burris had their share of moments last year (17 passes defensed, nine tackles for loss), they could find themselves pretty lonely in 2013. Returning safeties combined for just 10.5 tackles last year, and it is all but guaranteed that newcomers will be playing a hefty role in the secondary. Sometimes that works out fine; often, it doesn't.

Special Teams

PunterHt, Wt2013
Year
PuntsAvgTBFCI20FC/I20
Ratio
Wil Baumann6'6, 190Jr. 74 38.9 5 37 16 71.6%
KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
KickoffsAvgTBTB%
Niklas Sade6'3, 212Jr. 70 63.9 41 58.6%
Wil Baumann6'6, 190Jr. 3 61 0 0.0%
Place-KickerHt, Wt2013
Year
PATFG
(0-39)
PctFG
(40+)
Pct
Niklas Sade6'3, 212Jr. 44-46 8-11 72.7% 5-12 41.7%
ReturnerPos.Ht, Wt2013
Year
ReturnsAvg.TD
Tobais PalmerKR4425.72
C.J. WilsonKR319.70
Logan WinklesKR6'1, 260Jr. 3 9.7 0
Rashard SmithPR5'9, 177Sr. 34 9.3 1
CategoryRk
Special Teams F/+64
Net Punting93
Net Kickoffs9
Touchback Pct11
Field Goal Pct111
Kick Returns Avg31
Punt Returns Avg54

9. Lovers Rock

A digression: We went to Shreveport in 2003 for the Independence Bowl between Missouri and Arkansas. Mizzou lost, and while most of us had gotten over it by the time we got back to the car (it was a bowl, it didn't really matter, and after a five-year absence from the post-season, getting to a bowl at all was a victory), one of my good friends was devastated. It was his first bowl experience, and he had all of these nightmare scenarios of lost recruits and whatnot spinning through his head. We drove back to the hotel in his car, and he played Sade's Lovers Rock the entire time. We were stuck in traffic long enough that I'm pretty sure we heard the whole thing twice. It was therapeutic for him; he was back into party mode by the time we went out that night.

This is a long way of setting up a terrible Sade reference: As a kickoffs guy, Niklas Sade is By Your Side. As a place-kicker, he is the King of Sorrow. Thank you, thank you. Try the veal.

2013 Schedule & Projection Factors

2013 Schedule
DateOpponentProj. Rk
31-AugLouisiana Tech77
7-SepRichmondNR
19-SepClemson20
28-SepCentral Michigan98
5-Octat Wake Forest81
12-OctSyracuse54
26-Octat Florida State19
2-NovNorth Carolina29
9-Novat Duke88
16-Novat Boston College69
23-NovEast Carolina74
30-NovMaryland83
Five-Year F/+ Rk49
Two-Year Recruiting Rk56
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*-9 / -11.9
TO Luck/Game1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)11 (5, 6)
Yds/Pt Margin**-0.8

10. Bowl eligibility from home games alone

There are a lot of pretty good teams in the ACC. NC State misses a lot of them. With winnable road trips to Wake Forest, Duke, and Boston College, along with less-than-intimidating visits from Maryland and North Carolina, a pretty good NC State team could rack up a pretty gaudy win total this year. But even with another average team, the home slate, which also includes visits from Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina, and Louisiana Tech, could make sure the Wolfpack at least get back to a bowl.

I don't really trust this team very much. I liked the Doeren hire, and we'll see what he may be able to come up with down the line, but the running game was a shambles last year, and I'm not sure how much stock to put into a defense that returns experience at potentially the wrong places and is inexperienced where it used to be strong. Tom O'Brien didn't leave the cupboard bare, but he didn't leave it well-stocked in the right places either.

But the schedule should assure that NC State is once again floating around seven or so wins, with some more average ratings overall. That's not an amazing starting point, but it could be worse.

More from SB Nation:

The developing Johnny Manziel autographs scandal

Bill Connelly’s ACC preview series is underway

Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwww look at Tulsa’s new golden retriever

Official Coaches Poll Top 25 is out, led by Alabama and the SEC

Projecting every 2013 college football conference race

Today’s college football news headlines

Viewing all 4373 articles
Browse latest View live